Sleeper Picks: Butterfield Bermuda Championship
4 Min Read
Ben Kohles makes a birdie on No. 11 in Round 1 at Utah
Written by Rob Bolton
NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.
Outright
Ben Kohles (+7500) … Go as deep as you want on the board and the non-winners will carry the majority of the percentage. It’s not surprising in the FedExCup Fall, but it’s also an indication of the construct of the field from which we are choosing. While he has four victories on the Korn Ferry Tour, he’s yet to capture one in the big leagues. However, he’s logged 110 PGA TOUR starts, including a pair at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, cashing in both 2021 and 2024, so he’s a veteran among his subset. At 145th in the FedExCup, he needs no worse than a solo second to climb into the top 100, so there’s really only one objective on his mind, anyway. Putting remains his glaring weakness, and that can result in round-to-round inconsistency, especially on large greens like Port Royal’s, but he’s fourth on TOUR in fairways hit, third in greens in regulation and fifth in proximity to the hole. That tee-to-green precision projects to play way up with the gusty breezes expected on the island. Oh, and two of the six winners of the tournament were first-timers, including the defending champion, Rafael Campos.
Top 5
Sam Stevens (+650) ... Exaggeration is a relative word, but when you consider what he’s achieved in the context of this expectation, suddenly it doesn’t seem outlandish. Try this one for size: Either he finishes inside the top five or he doesn’t. It implies that he’s constantly contending, which he isn’t, but consider that he’s hung up a trio of podium finishes this year. It gets your attention in a hurry, so when you’re reviewing the boards, he’s among the most attractive in this market. For advancing to the BMW Championship, the 29-year-old is exempt into all Signature Events in 2026, so he’s also chasing a breakthrough victory, albeit for different motivations than Kohles. Stevens is 48th in the Official World Golf Ranking, so he’s further inspired to retain position inside the top 50 at the end of December for an exemption into the Masters. If you’re feeling frisky, he’s +3300 to prevail.
Top 10
Kevin Roy (+500) ... All kinds of meat on this bone. For one, he finished T8 in his last trip to Port Royal in 2023, so it wouldn’t even be unprecedented for him to deliver on the course. He’s also connected for three top 10s (among eight top 20s) this season. They’ve contributed to him sitting comfortably at 87th in the FedExCup, so he’s not experiencing the kind of pressure with which his peers on the bubble are attempting to manage. The 35-year-old further impresses with positive splits in every Strokes Gained metric, and he’s 15th on the PGA TOUR in both ball-striking and proximity to the hole. His elevated floor in the aggregate fuels our faith with wind on the way.
'The Early Card' for Butterfield Bermuda Championship on 'The Drop'
Top 20
David Lipsky (+240) … If he had the power to handpick where he could play right now, he just might select Port Royal. At 101st in the FedExCup, the 37-year-old is at the front of the line outside the door beside the velvet rope, but only he can control his entry. The attempt begins with a suitable site for his skill set. To wit, he finished T13 here in 2023 and T9 last year. His scoring average across those eight rounds is 67.5, and it includes beating the field average on the windiest of days a year ago. Accuracy off the tee and on approach easily are strong enough to warrant this endorsement, exclusive of his course success, and he arrives having cashed in four straight.
Mark Hubbard (+145) … This is one for the course-history buffs. That angle very much is a thing, of course, but this nod relies entirely on it because he arrives with virtually zero mojo. He finished inside the top 20 in the last two editions of the tournament (T20, 2023; T3, 2024), scoring 15-under 269 both times, and he placed T22 in 2022, so there’s a level of comfort that he hasn’t felt in a while. It also explains the muted kickback in this market. The most impactful consideration as it concerns his focus is that he’s 91st in the FedExCup and safe from all but inside straights in the final two hands to retain his card for 2026. And when you reverse that perspective, those chasing him probably would prefer that he isn’t playing Port Royal right now.
Odds were sourced at FanDuel.
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