Sleeper Picks: WM Phoenix Open
3 Min Read
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – While the top of the odds board has significant gravitas this week, there are still plenty of names who could surprise at juicy odds. Who wants to join the party at the WM Phoenix Open and give the thousands of fans extra reason to root them on?
Outright
Kurt Kitayama +7000 … If you are a reader of Benny and the Bets, you will be aware of the converging trends for winners at TPC Scottsdale. The last nine winners have had a previous top 10 at the WM Phoenix Open and the last 14 winners have had at least one TOUR top 10 in their previous five TOUR starts leading into playing amongst the throng of people. For Kitayama, it was two top 10s to close out his efforts last season that tick that box, but he also was T8 here in Scottsdale last season. Ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, an important factor when misses this week could end in water or cactus.
*Note: The player I slot in the outright sleeper category is someone I’d also advocate betting across any or all of the Top 5, top 10, Top 20, Top 30, Top 40 or Make Cut markets.
Top 5 (including ties)
Andrew Novak +1100 … Back to the well! Keen observers would know I had Novak slated here last week, and sadly he let us down … kind of. He still finished T13 coming off a third-place finish at Torrey Pines, and we should not forget he opened the WM Phoenix Open 65-65 last year to be T2 through 36 holes. While a Sunday fade left him T8, it was part of the stretch where Novak started to believe he could compete against the best.
Top 10 (including ties)
Billy Horschel +450 … Coming off a T9 at Pebble Beach last week and a decent T21 at The American Express prior to that, Horschel has found some form at a good time. Has made the last 10 cuts in Phoenix with two top 10s from his last five. Loves being a showman, and where better to lean in?
Top 20 (including ties)
Frankie Capan III +450 … This PGA TOUR rookie is in the field on a sponsor exemption after attending high school here in Phoenix. He won back-to-back individual state titles in 2017 and 2018, making him someone the locals will definitely be getting behind. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season to help him claim a TOUR card and has made the cut in all three starts this season, including a T12 at The American Express.
Top 40 (including ties)
Matt McCarty +180 … One could accuse McCarty of being asleep in 2025 after his incredible 2024, but the good news regarding his recent form is we get some potential value in this market. Last season he won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour and then jumped to further prominence by winning the Black Desert Championship on the PGA TOUR last fall! But since then, four missed cuts, a T53 in a 58-man field and a T65 are not ideal. So why entertain him this week? Well, he’s a Scottsdale resident who plays and practices out of – you guessed it – TPC Scottsdale. Has been attending the tournament since he was 10 years old and now finally gets to tee it up. Can this week wake this sleeper up?
Hopefully you saw the news about the PGA TOUR LIVE, ESPN+ and ESPN Bet launching a new betting stream this week! Come and check it out during all four competition rounds from TPC Scottsdale.
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Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.