The Five: Startling early season statistics to watch this season

It’s hard to make definitive statements this quickly into a PGA TOUR season. The sample size is still small. Only six tournaments have come and gone since The Sentry, the season opener in Hawaii, with just two players – Eric Cole and Si Woo Kim – competing in every event.

At this time a year ago, Scottie Scheffler had not won yet. He was still in the wilderness (relatively) with his putting. Xander Schauffele had yet to break through either. Matthieu Pavon was No. 1 in the FedExCup. That’s just to say that things will change. New winners and storylines will emerge in the coming weeks.

We also shouldn’t ignore what’s happened. Some early trends will turn into season-long struggles and successes. While six weeks isn’t enough to make grand proclamations, it’s certainly long enough to begin monitoring what statistics will be sticky and which ones we will forget in 12 months.

Ahead of The Genesis Invitational, here’s a look at five of the most startling early-season stats on TOUR.

1. Max Homa ranks outside the top 150 in approach play

It hasn’t been the start Max Homa imagined, but it’s not completely unexpected after he made two major changes in the offseason. Homa switched from Titleist, his longtime equipment manufacturer, to Cobra, and began working with swing coach John Scott Rattan after splitting with longtime coach Mark Blackburn last fall.

Naturally, that has led to some early stumbles as the six-time TOUR winner attempts to build the plane while flying it. Homa has missed two cuts in five starts and was headed toward a third before withdrawing on the back nine of his second round at the Farmers Insurance Open. His T26 at The Sentry (a 59-player field) is his best finish of the season.

Homa’s struggles have been particularly pronounced in his approach play. Homa ranks 177th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, losing more than one shot per round, on average. Since re-earning his card in 2018, Homa has not lost strokes on approach over a full season, let alone struggled to that level. Even with his struggles in the back end of 2024, Homa still ranked 84th in SG: Approach and gained shots on average. This season, Homa is on pace to set a career-low in SG: Approach.

2. Sahith Theegala’s ball-striking slump

Sahith Theegala’s arrow was pointing up in the lead-up to the 2025 season, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue to go up long term. But through a month and a half of the season, Theegala has regressed.

Fresh off his maiden Presidents Cup appearance, the American has struggled to replicate his success, particularly from tee to green. Theegala ranks 119th in SG: Tee-to-Green after he ranked 25th in the statistic last year. And it’s been poor performances from each facet of the game that has contributed to the fall. Theegala is outside the top 100 in both SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green and is 96th in SG: Off-the-Tee.

It’s contributed to more than a few tournament-wrecking rounds. Theegala shot 76 in the opening round of The Sentry, which yielded an average score of 68.7. A few weeks later, he shot 80 in the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open. Just last week, he shot 74 in the first round at TPC Scottsdale, all but eliminating his chance to contend at a course that he’s picked apart in recent seasons.

There’s enough of a track record to believe Theegala will turn it around. But until he does, his play will be worth monitoring.

3. Justin Thomas on pace for one of best putting seasons of TOUR career

It’s hard for Justin Thomas to veer too far off path when he strikes his irons like he does. He’s perenially one of the TOUR’s top ball strikers. Even in a down year like 2022-23, Thomas finished 71st in the FedExCup, never at risk of losing his TOUR card but just on the outside of the Playoffs. Simply, his iron play keeps his floor incredibly high.

It’s not what determines his ceiling, though. That’s up to what he does with the putter. It should come as no surprise that Thomas’ winless drought, extending back to the 2022 PGA Championship, coincides with the worst statistical putting stretch of his career. He ranked a career-worst 174th in SG: Putting last year and was outside the top 125 in 2023 as well. In fact, he has only cracked the top 100 in putting once in the last six seasons.

That’s why his start to this season has been notable. Thomas ranks 55th in SG: Putting, already amassing two top 10s in four starts. You have to go back to his 2017 and 2018 seasons to find comparable performance. Thomas won eight times in those two seasons and was a dominant force in the sport, rising to No. 1 in the world at his peak.

That signals Thomas could be in the beginning stages of a renaissance. The wins haven’t come yet, but he’s been close. He finished runner-up at The American Express and figures to be a prominent player in the upcoming months. He’s a winner at THE PLAYERS Championship and claimed his first major title at Quail Hollow, which plays host to the PGA Championship again this spring.

If he continues this putting performance, big things are ahead of Thomas in 2025.

4. Aldrich Potgieter’s immediate advantage

It’s not often a PGA TOUR rookie comes onto the scene and immediately possesses an advantage over an entire field. South Africa’s Aldrich Potgieter can claim that already.

The 5-11, 211-pound Potgieter is already the longest player on the PGA TOUR. He leads the TOUR in ball speed, averaging 190.78 mph off the tee. Only four other players are within 5 mph, and just 16 players are within 10 mph of Potgieter. It’s a remarkable display of consistent power that helps Potgieter consistently gain a leg up on his competitors. He leads the TOUR in driving distance and is second in SG: Off-the-Tee despite ranking 135th in accuracy, further evidence of his advantage.

He’s struggled to capitalize on that advantage as other parts of his game have struggled. The driving distance isn’t going away, though. It’s not just a trend of a hot streak. The power will remain a constant as Potgieter rounds out the rest of his game. When, or if, he does become a more complete player, he will be a dangerous presence.

5. Uncharacteristic driving struggles for Billy Horschel

Billy Horschel has been a mainstay on the PGA TOUR since his maiden 2013 victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He’s spent nearly that entire time as an above-average, off-the-tee player.

Thus far this year, it’s the exact opposite. Horschel ranks 142nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, losing about one-third of a stroke in every round. It’s a reversion to his form from 2022-23, the only other season of his career that he’s lost strokes off the tee. In his 13 other seasons, Horschel’s driving has been a true asset, gaining shots on his competitors every round.

Instead, Horschel has lost strokes off the tee in four of his first five events, The American Express (where he finished a season-best T9) was the lone exception.

Horschel’s game appeared to be rounding into form at the end of 2024. It still could be. He will need to reclaim his driving prowess if he hopes to sustain success in 2025.