The Florida Swing is officially in the books after Matt Fitzpatrick fired off back-to-back bogey-free rounds en route to a one-shot victory over David Lipsky at the Valspar Championship. And honestly, it felt like the perfect way to close it out, because this stretch of golf has been nothing short of chaotic.

Through four events, not a single 54-hole leader or co-leader went on to win the tournament. Think about that for a second. Every Sunday was a grind, and every leaderboard was flipped on its head late.

Now the PGA TOUR heads to Houston for the first of two stops in Texas before we roll into major season, and the Texas Children’s Houston Open brings its own bit of drama, including the news that world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has withdrawn.

For bettors, the timing couldn’t have been better. An early Tuesday withdrawal gives you time to adjust, reset your card, and find value elsewhere on the board. When a +300 favorite gets pulled, everything shifts.

As for Scheffler, there’s no real concern moving forward. The withdrawal isn’t injury-related. The Scheffler family is set to welcome their second child, and with the Masters just a couple of weeks away, this doesn’t change anything big picture.

So, with or without Scheffler, the show goes on. The board looks different, the value shifts, and now it’s up to us to adjust our numbers.

Since the renovation, this is the sixth year Memorial Park has hosted the Texas Children's Houston Open.

If you pull up the scorecard at Memorial Park, the first thing that jumps out is the length. This is a 7,475-yard par 70, and it’s one of the longer courses on TOUR. It’s not just long, it is also very forgiving off the tee.

There really isn’t much danger out there. Only four holes have water in play. There are just 24 bunkers across the entire course. The rough is only about 1.25 inches. So missing fairways? Not a huge deal.

Guys are going to hit driver almost everywhere and just try to overpower the place.

Even looking at the past champions tells the same story. Min Woo Lee (+1500) in 2025, Stephan Jaeger (+5700) in 2024, Tony Finau (+6500) in 2022, Jason Kokrak in 2021 and Carlos Ortiz in 2020 all averaged well over 300 yards off the tee. While other data points will always matter, the first metric I want to use when looking for success at Memorial Park is pure driving distance. Until a golfer averaging fewer than 290 yards wins this tournament, it will remain one of the first measuring sticks I use.

Here’s a look at the top 10 golfers in the field in total driving distance over the past 12 months (via Betspertsgolf.com):

• 1. Christo Lamprecht (310.3)
• 2. Jesper Svensson (310.2)
• 3. Marco Penge (309.2)
• 4. Aldrich Potgieter (309.0)
• 5. Chris Gotterup (308.5)
• 6. Michael Brennan (307.8)
• 7. Nicolai Højgaard (307.4)
• 8. Rasmus Højgaard (306.7)
• 9. Jake Knapp (305.8)
• 10. Keith Mitchell (305.5)

It is important to note that the gap between the 10th-ranked golfer and the 21st-ranked golfer, Min Woo Lee, at 300.7, is only 4.8 yards. But from that group, and where the odds currently stand, it is hard to ignore Chris Gotterup at +2050.

Gotterup’s odds slightly dropped after the Scheffler news from +2500, but still being north of +2000 feels fair for a player with this kind of profile. Not only is he long off the tee, but he is also starting to build the kind of PGA TOUR resume that suggests there could be a lot more coming. Since turning professional in 2022, Gotterup has already won four times on the PGA TOUR, with his first victory coming at the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic. It was not long after that when he added his second, third and fourth TOUR titles.

When looking at his history at Memorial Park, the fit becomes even more interesting. In 2025, he gained 2.45 strokes off the tee. In 2024, he gained another 2.86 strokes off the tee. He has clearly been able to overpower this place. His best finish here came in 2025 when he finished T18, but that result was held back by poor approach play in three of the four rounds. What stood out, though, was the way he finished the week. On Sunday, he gained 2.52 strokes on approach. It could be reaching, but it seems promising.

That is why he is so intriguing at this number. The driver already fits. If the approach play comes with it, he has every chance to contend.

What is interesting about this event, though, is that while distance clearly matters, it has not always been the stat that determines the winner.

In Lee’s win here last season, he was not actually a massive gainer off the tee. He lost 0.2 strokes off the tee for the week. That number was heavily influenced by one terrible round with the driver, where he dunked one in the water and lost 2.14 strokes off the tee. But he more than made up for it with his irons, gaining 3.98 strokes on approach.

Finau dominated the same way in his 2022 win, gaining more than five strokes on approach en route to the title.

That is what makes Memorial Park interesting. Golfers can swing freely and let the driver go because the course does not punish misses much, but eventually, the event still comes down to approach play and putting.

One metric that really stands out when you look at the winners here and the players who have contended is that most of them had a great week with the putter.

Here are the best putters in the field over the last 36 rounds:

• 1. Jake Knapp
• 2. Vince Whaley
• 3. Sam Burns
• 4. Peter Malnati
• 5. Rasmus Højgaard
• 6. Harry Hall
• 7. Matthieu Pavon
• 8. Danny Willett
• 9. David Lipsky
• 10. Kris Ventura

Jake Knapp, Top 20 including ties (+120, DraftKings)

There probably are not many people more frustrated with how the last few weeks have gone than Jake Knapp and those people who have been backing him.

After an impressive start to the season, Knapp withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational after the tournament started but before he teed off, which burned anyone who had him in DFS lineups. Then, the following week, after there were rumblings that he was perfectly fine, he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS.

So, I get it if there is hesitation here. But realistically, he has now had a full week off, and this still feels like a good spot to go back to him.

His price to finish inside the top 20 at +112 with ties included is not bad at all. If Knapp gets back to the form he showed at the beginning of the season, or even the form he had through the end of February when he was basically living inside the top 20 and giving himself chances to contend, then this price is more than fair.

And outside of the recent form, I really like the fit. He is already one of the longer players in the field, which matters here, but what people may still be underrating is how much he has improved on the greens. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Often, the weakness in Knapp’s game has been accuracy. That should not be nearly as big of a problem at Memorial Park, and it is not like he is wildly inaccurate to begin with. He has already shown at tougher driving courses that he can be neutral off the tee and still contend if the putter stays hot. That is enough for me to like him to finish inside the top 20 this week.

Best Value on the Board

Fox to win +7000 | Fox, Top 5 +510 (DraftKings)

The best value on the board, though, might be Ryan Fox.

Not every withdrawal is created equally. Some are injury-related. Some, like Scheffler’s, are family-related. Some are weird one-off situations, and that seems to be the case with Fox, who withdrew two weeks ago because of a kidney stone operation.

Before that, he was playing really well and building momentum with every start. He had posted four top-24 finishes in four events and looked like a player trending in the right direction.

Fox should be one of the top names showing up in many models this week because the shape of his game makes a lot of sense for this golf course. He ranks 28th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in driving distance. He is third in par-3 scoring and has been excellent with his long irons. The biggest weakness is the inconsistency with the putter, but even that looked good last year, when he gained 1.97 strokes on putting and finished T15.

When you think about the types of courses where Fox has played his best golf, they tend to be places where driving is not overly penal, and approach play carries a lot of weight. That sounds exactly like Memorial Park.

At +7000 to win and +510 for a top-10 finish with ties included, he is the kind of player who immediately grabs my attention.