Draws and Fades: Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick clear favorites after Scottie Scheffler exits Genesis Scottish Open

The Friday afternoon wave did not feel much of a breeze at the Genesis Scottish Open, as the cut line fell to 2-under 138. Seventy-one players progressed to the weekend at The Renaissance Club. Notably, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler was not one of those players after a 2-over 72 in the second round.

“For whatever reason, I just haven't played my best golf on this course,” Scheffler told reporters. “It could be for a variety of reasons. Like you said, I'll get down there a little earlier than I thought I would and have a couple extra days on the course (Royal Birkdale) to prepare.”

Currently heading south to Southport, England, Scheffler is moving on to The Open Championship. For the rest of the field in Scotland, there’s still plenty to play for this weekend.

Whether you had Scheffler on your betting card or not, the weekend always calls for a couple of adjustments. Three players lead the way after 36 holes at 9 under: Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim and Jordan Smith. If you read our Round 1 recap, you know I’m already vested in McIlroy and Kim. Where else can we find some value for our weekend wagers?

Updated odds to win the Genesis Scottish Open (via DraftKings Sportsbook):

• +220: Rory McIlroy
• +620: Matt Fitzpatrick
• +790: Tom Kim
• +970: Min Woo Lee
• +1125: Chris Gotterup
• +1375: Robert MacIntyre
• +1400: Jordan Smith

Approach and putting continue to be the two skills featured by the contenders. Seven of the top 12 names on the leaderboard are inside the top 25 for Strokes Gained: Approach. The betting favorite is still McIlroy (+220). That’s one area where McIlroy could make a move. If McIlroy sharpens his iron play, it’s all over. Through two rounds, McIlroy has only hit 23 of 36 greens in regulation.

Our approach leader? Matt Fitzpatrick (+620). With three wins to his name in 2026 already, the Englishman has the "Fitz” magic needed to take down McIlroy as an option if you missed the Round 1 McIlroy bet. In seven starts at The Renaissance Club, Fitzpatrick has gained an average of +4.6 strokes on the field with his flatstick.

Joost Luiten (+11000) is a name that jumped into the mix in Round 2. Be careful catching that lightning in a bottle; Luiten has one top 10 on his 2026 resume. What gives me even further pause are his approach and putter strokes gained numbers. Both are negative for the season.

Instead, let’s take advantage of the run our defending champion put together today. Chris Gotterup (+1125) is still over 10-to-1 for an outright bet with 36 holes to play. Not only did Gotterup hold off Rory McIlroy (and others) in the final round last year, but he also just won the John Deere Classic with a 64 on Sunday. Looking for a trained leaderboard killer, Gotterup has three wins in 2026, and all have come with a weekend charge.

I have one more bet to draw up: Hang a top-10 wager on Hennie Du Plessis (+520 top 10). Du Plessis just finished runner-up on Sunday at the BMW International Open. As a co-sanctioned event, the Genesis Scottish Open started with 72 DP World Tour players in the field. Don’t have a domestic bias ... Du Plessis has the perfect skill set for a strong finish. He averages 312 yards off the tee, and we know how power is favored at The Renaissance Club. He sits T25, but is three strokes outside of the top 10 and is ranked ninth in the field for SG: T2G after two rounds. If looking for a flyer to make the top 10, take this soaring South African.

Keith Stewart is a PGA of America professional and a co-founder of Read The Line.

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