Draws and Fades: Which Højgaard brother to back after opener in Scotland?

The Renaissance Club was the 14th-most predictive course on the PGA TOUR in 2025. Based upon Thursday’s first-round leaderboard, Tom Doak’s design alongside the Firth of Forth may move up the chart in 2026!

Predictability is a measure of how players who perform well on a specific golf course continue to do so year after year. Of the five players leading after Round 1, their worst finish at this venue is a T10 by Rasmus Højgaard. Bernd Wiesberger and Rory McIlroy have both won, and Tom Kim (3) and Patrick Cantlay (T4) have both finished in the top five.

Of the dozen players in the top 10 after the opening round, ball speed and iron accuracy are the two throughlines. McIlroy (+380), the betting favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook after Round 1, summed up his round: “Yeah, I thought for the most part, I played well. I felt like I drove the ball particularly well, and I started to see that at Shinnecock, as well, a couple weeks ago.”

Updated odds to win Genesis Scottish Open

• +380: Rory McIlroy
• +740: Scottie Scheffler
• +1150: Patrick Cantlay
• +1600: Tommy Fleetwood
• +1650: Matt Fitzpatrick
• +1950: Tom Kim

A complete McIlroy at The Renaissance Club is going to be a factor. With a fourth-place, second-place and first-place finish in his last three Scottish Open starts, McIlroy is one player you must find a spot for on your weekend betting card. On Thursday, he was second in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Tom Kim (+300, Top 5) will need to continue striping the ball with his irons. In four starts at the Genesis Scottish Open, Kim has finished 3-T6-T15-T17. Kim’s approach play has been excellent since mid-April. I expect his run attacking these holes and scoring (six birdies in Round 1) will continue. A +300 bet to finish inside the top five (including ties) is an example of how to benefit your bankroll from his ball-striking. Playing Kim on this course in head-to-head matchups is also a good idea. In his four Scottish starts, Kim is gaining an average of +7.6 strokes on the field.

Ranked 145th in driving accuracy for Round 1, Højgaard only hit three of 13 fairways. Going forward, your luck in the rough is going to run out. Fortunately, Højgaard hit his irons well, but that was very lie-dependent. He has ball speed, but until he starts finding more fairways, he is a player to fade.

Now, Nicolai Højgaard (+310, Top 10) finished the day second in SG: Tee-to-Green. He was cold with the putter en route to a 2-under 68 but has a great history at The Renaissance Club. A little more than +300 for a top 10 (including ties) has value. In his last three starts in the Scottish, Højgaard has two top-six results. The lead player on approach for Round 1 definitely has my attention as we move past the cut and into the weekend.

Keith Stewart is a PGA of America professional and a co-founder of Read The Line.

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