Draws and Fades: Evaluating ‘Without Wyndham’ market with Clark on cusp of U.S. Open title

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — Wyndham Clark is (probably) going to win the U.S. Open.

A lot can happen in the final round, especially on a course as demanding as Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. But Clark’s efforts in the third round, saving par from seemingly everywhere and taking advantage of both of the par 5s, have put him in an enviable position with a six-shot lead. It’s a cushion that has been surrendered just once before in major championship history: Greg Norman's epic collapse at the 1996 Masters.

So framed in that light, Clark’s current -230 odds might actually seem a little light. That price conveys about a 70% win probability, which affords plenty of cushion even when you add in the factor of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler alongside Clark in the final pairing while trying to chase down the final leg of the career Grand Slam on his 30th birthday.

So yes, things could go sideways. Scheffler or one of the other three men tied at 1 under could put a charge into the proceedings, akin to what Tommy Fleetwood did here with his final-round 63 back in 2018. But the overwhelming likelihood is that Clark will lift this trophy for the second time in the last four years.

But that likely outcome does not limit the betting opportunities in Sunday’s final round. Oddsmakers at DraftKings have created a “Without Clark” market, so let’s look to prognosticate how the final leaderboard will shape up – even if Clark runs away with things.

'Without Wyndham Clark' U.S. Open odds:

• +186: Scottie Scheffler
• +760: Xander Schauffele
• +640: Sahith Theegala
• +950: Tom Kim
• +1075: Sam Burns
• +1650: Keith Mitchell
• +1700: Tommy Fleetwood
• +1900: Collin Morikawa

Scheffler stands out as a clear favorite, having turned in one of just two sub-par rounds on Saturday (alongside Emiliano Grillo). The best player in the world started to play like it on Moving Day, and he’ll have the benefit of a spot alongside Clark in the day’s final pairing.

But that focus for Scheffler will clearly be on trying to win major No. 5, not necessarily taking top honors in this prop market. As a result, I’ll go a bit further down the board in search of players who, like Robert MacIntyre a year ago at Oakmont, might come out of nowhere to grab a podium finish.

Tom Kim (+950)

Kim needed to earn a spot in a 36-hole qualifier in Texas to even punch his ticket to Shinnecock Hills, but he’s making the most of the opportunity. Slotted into one of the final pairings on Saturday, he was wobbly out of the gates with two bogeys over his first three holes amid blustery conditions. He steadied the ship from there, playing the subsequent 15 holes in even par, and he’ll be in the penultimate pairing alongside Theegala. It’s been an impressive short-game performance from Kim, ranking inside the top 10 in both Strokes Gained: Putting and SG: Around-the-Green. He’ll need both to have a chance to cash this ticket, but I like leaning into that volatility over a player like Theegala who has a sturdier stat profile (and shorter odds). Kim is a high-variance option with a lot of upside.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1700)

Can he do it again? Fleetwood nearly chased down Brooks Koepka here eight years ago, shooting a course-record 63 that might have been an all-timer had he converted a short birdie putt on the 18th green. Still, he was a player on many short lists entering the week who has simply been stuck in neutral through 54 holes. Fleetwood has shot two rounds of even-par 70 to go along with a 1-over 71, not doing anything terribly but also not outshining the competition in any particular realm, either. His putter began to warm up a bit in the third round, notably a 20-footer for eagle on the par-5 fifth hole, and he’ll certainly be shooting at flags while starting the day eight shots back. That can backfire in a hurry at Shinnecock Hills, but he could be worth a sprinkle as a long-shot investment in this particular market. History sometimes repeats itself – right?