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Draws and Fades: Ludvig Åberg is betting favorite for a reason at THE PLAYERS Championship

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Draws and Fades

Ludvig Åberg reaches the 564-yard, par-5 11th hole in two, makes eagle at THE PLAYERS

Ludvig Åberg reaches the 564-yard, par-5 11th hole in two, makes eagle at THE PLAYERS

    Written by Rick Gehman

    We were spoiled by a Moving Day at THE PLAYERS Championship with idyllic conditions and the best players in the world rising to the occasion.

    Scottie Scheffler took his early tee time and turned it into a bogey-free 67, his best round of the week and the second time he’s been bogey-free around TPC Sawgrass in his career. That was just the foreshadowing for a great day of scoring.

    Robert MacIntyre carded nine birdies, including a streak of three in a row on Nos. 15, 16 and 17. That is, maybe surprisingly, not the most birdies that MacIntyre has made in a round. He’s notched 10 birdies on two different occasions – most recently in round one of this year’s The American Express. The final tally was 65, moving him up over 30 spots on the leaderboard and onto the first page.

    It’s been a struggle for J.J. Spaun this year but he was electric in his third round at THE PLAYERS Championship. He carded a 4-under 67, gaining more than three strokes putting. That’s noteworthy considering Spaun entered this week ranked 171st in Strokes Gained: Putting for the season. That moved him from a negative to a positive with the putter for the week. If that continues throughout Sunday, it’ll be the first time he’s gained strokes putting in an event this season. He’ll enter the final round at 5 under.

    The final scoring average for the day was more than a half stroke under par, which has been the lowest of the week. Here are some final-round opportunities for THE PLAYERS.

    Ludvig Åberg to Win (-132), DraftKings Sportsbook

    Yes, he’s the favorite – but he’s the favorite for a reason. I’m never afraid to lay the juice if the likelihood outweighs the price.

    Åberg has been elite in nearly every facet of the game this week at TPC Sawgrass. He’s gaining nearly four strokes off the tee and has added another six strokes on approach. He’s inside the top 10 in both of those critical categories.


    Ludvig Åberg reaches the 564-yard, par-5 11th hole in two, makes eagle at THE PLAYERS

    Ludvig Åberg reaches the 564-yard, par-5 11th hole in two, makes eagle at THE PLAYERS


    If that wasn’t enough, his putter has been a weapon and he’s added another four strokes to his total in that area – also ranking him inside the top 10. He’s been the best player in the field this week by a wide margin and he has the temperament and attitude to pick up this massive victory.

    Si Woo Kim, Top 20 (+205), DraftKings Sportsbook

    Si Woo Kim’s third-round 68 was his best round of the week, which was highlighted by five birdies over his last 10 holes. Kim has been uncharacteristically loose with his irons this week. He usually gains a stroke per round on approach but he lost nearly four strokes on approach over the first two rounds. He rebounded in the third round, gaining 1.3 strokes on approach.

    Kim entered the week with nine other starts at THE PLAYERS, where he earned three top-10 finishes, including a win. His 1.39 strokes gained per round was the sixth-best rate of anyone in the field this week. He’s been splendid at TPC Sawgrass in his career and could be primed for a big movement if he’s back in form.


    Si Woo Kim sinks 22-foot birdie putt on No. 3 at THE PLAYERS

    Si Woo Kim sinks 22-foot birdie putt on No. 3 at THE PLAYERS


    Jason Day, Top Oceania (+134), DraftKings Sportsbook

    The Aussie is in complete control of his game right now, evidenced by how few bogeys he has made this week. Through three rounds, he has made just two bogies and two double bogeys. He’s inside the top 25 in greens in regulation, but T5 in scrambling. So the few greens that he has missed, he’s been able to get up and down regularly.

    The most telling stat is his tee-to-green play where he’s gained more than six strokes on the field. That puts him inside the top 15 heading into the final round. He’s currently tied with Min Woo Lee at 4-under par and they hold a three-shot advantage over Adam Scott in this small Oceania group.

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