Birdies were flying Thursday at The American Express, and the opening round delivered exactly what this three-course rotation usually promises — fireworks and a congested leaderboard.

Min Woo Lee (+2200 at DraftKings Sportsbook) and Pierceson Coody (+2500) set the pace at 10-under, taking advantage of the Nicklaus Tournament Course and posting the number to chase. Over at La Quinta Country Club, Scottie Scheffler (+200) did what the world No. 1 typically does when conditions are favorable: he dominated. Scheffler signed for a bogey-free, 9-under 63, and somehow it felt even more impressive considering he hit just five fairways.

Even slightly out of position, he never looked uncomfortable. He just hit one impressive approach after another.

There’s also a fun wrinkle to Scheffler’s week. Despite his resume and how he’s won at seemingly every tournament he’s played, The American Express remains one of the rare stops where he’s made multiple starts without lifting the trophy. Through one round, he’s well-positioned to change that.

On the Pete Dye Stadium Course, Jason Day (+900) owned the day. The former world No. 1 carded the low round on the toughest track in the rotation.

Don’t run to the window right away to post wagers on the top of the board just because they are well-positioned. Context matters at The American Express. With three courses in play and only one round complete, the leaderboard can be misleading. It’s difficult to fully gauge who’s “in it” and who isn’t when scoring depends so heavily on which course you drew first. Two golfers are at 10-under, nine more sit at 9-under, and nearly 20 are within three shots of the lead. It’s crowded, and there’s still a ton of golf to play.

The weather was perfect. Calm winds with easy scoring conditions allowed La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course to play well under par, while the Stadium Course offered the sternest test of the trio. If tournament officials were looking for a setup that would separate just a bit more than we’ve seen in recent years, Thursday’s Stadium scoring suggests they found it, setting up for what should be an exciting Sunday finish.

Now the rotation changes. Golfers will play the other two courses, with a Saturday cut. If Friday’s forecast holds, we should brace for more of the same. Practically zero wind, a few clouds in the sky, and another day where the best in the field can put their heads down and see how low they can go.

From a betting perspective, the biggest thing to remember moving into Round 2 is that there’s no Strokes Gained data for La Quinta or the Nicklaus Course. Handicapping will lean heavily on the eye test, current form, course history, and what we’ve seen translate on similar setups. That makes live betting and placement markets more dependent on course rotation and player profile.

Robert MacIntyre Top 10 with ties (+105)

I’ve already said it — after one round at a three-course rotation, you can’t just glance at the top of the leaderboard and sprint to the window. But there are exceptions, and Robert MacIntyre (+1400) kind of feels like one.

If you dug into the PGA TOUR Power Rankings this week, MacIntyre was slotted No. 2, right behind Scheffler. His ceiling is real because once the putter heats up, he has an almost unfair ability to turn solid golf into a dazzling showcase.

The form is impossible to ignore. He arrived in the desert riding a strong stretch of impressive finishes, and he backed it up again at the Sony Open with a T4, capped by a bogey-free 63. Then he opened The American Express by piling up 10 birdies and posting a 9-under 63. The card wasn’t perfect, but it sure felt like it was.

Don’t be fooled, it’s not just a one-day flash. MacIntyre is the kind of player who can go low anytime, anywhere. He’s shown that he can keep his foot down and surge forward.

What makes him dangerous is that he doesn’t need to be the best ball-striker in the field to contend. He hits a ton of greens, gives himself plenty of chances, and his putter does the rest.

If he keeps giving himself great looks, the placement market makes a ton of sense. There’s legitimate value in MacIntyre to finish inside the top 10 this week.

Round 2 Matchup: Will Zalatoris (+100) over Daniel Berger

Is Zalatoris (+8000) officially back? I’m not ready to go that far and pretend he’s going to be in contention every week the moment he tees it up. But I am ready to say he looked like himself again on Thursday.

Zalatoris posted 7-under with just one blemish on the card, and the best part was how clean the finish looked. He played the back nine bogey-free. More importantly, he sounded like a guy who’s finally turning the corner when he said he’s swinging freely again and playing without limitations. With Zalatoris, that’s the entire story.

The course rotation also sets up perfectly for him in Round 2. He heads to the Nicklaus Tournament Course, which has easily been his best of the three at PGA West. Over the last few years, he’s consistently gained strokes to the field here, including a massive performance in 2022 and additional positive showings in the following trips.

His history at this event backs it up, too. Zalatoris has two top-12 finishes at The American Express, including a top-six in 2022 and another top-12 last season that likely could’ve been better if the putter cooperated.

On the other side, Berger’s weakest course in this rotation has been the Nicklaus Tournament Course. The sample size isn’t huge, but compared to his results on the other two tracks, this one has clearly been the least productive from a strokes-gained standpoint.

When you stack them side-by-side using PGA West splits, Zalatoris holds a small edge overall. It’s not some massive gap that screams “free money,” but it’s enough to justify taking the even-money price in a matchup that slightly favors Zalatoris.

This is the smaller of the two wagers I’d make for Friday, but if you’re looking for a smart, mid-card, Round 2 sweat, Zalatoris over Berger at +100 is my favorite look in the head-to-head market.