Chris Gotterup opened the PGA TOUR season with a win at the Sony Open, locking up his third career victory and climbing to 28th in the Official World Golf Rankings. Honestly, it all makes sense. Waialae demanded shot-making in the wind, and given his resume, it’s clear he was a horse for that particular course.

Now the TOUR heads to the desert for the American Express in La Quinta, California. This week, the handicap gets tricky. This isn’t the standard one-course, four-round event. It’s a three-course rotation with amateurs, longer rounds and a lot of bodies on the course(s) at once.

The American Express is played across PGA WEST’s Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club. The pros rotate through all three courses over the first three rounds, each paired with an amateur along the way, which means five- to six-hour rounds are very much on the table. After 54 holes, the low 65 and ties advance to Sunday at the Stadium Course, the toughest test of the trio.

When trying to identify the right course profile, the setup can make things slightly confusing. Three courses. Three different looks. With wide fairways and not a ton of length, these courses are beaten the same way: elite ball-striking and endless birdie chances.

With the winning scores routinely pushing deep into 20-under territory, someone is going to make everything. However, the data leans more towards ball-strikers creating an insane number of makeable looks. You don’t need to be a world-class putter – you need a spike.

Si Wo Kim (+3000 at FanDuel Sportsbook) in 2021 is a perfect example. A pure ball-striker who has had his struggles with the flatstick, he gave himself many chances that week – and once the putter started to get hot, it was over.

The approach is simple:

First: Find the best ball strikers in the field.

Second: Narrow it down to thrive in birdie fests on easy setups in clean weather.

Strokes Gained: Ball-striking last 36 rounds*

1) Scottie Scheffler
2) Rico Hoey
3) Si Woo Kim
4) Kurt Kitayama
5) Russell Henley

Strokes Gained: 'Very easy' courses*

1) Scottie Scheffler
2) Ben Griffin
3) Alex Noren
4) Patrick Cantlay
5) Russell Henley

*Data via Betsperts

Scheffler and Russell Henley (+2200) are two names that show up inside the top five of both lists, and it’s not hard to see why. Both fit what this week demands. Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet, and betting him to win is never a bad idea. That said, I’ve always leaned toward backing Scottie on tougher setups, where separation actually exists. In a birdie fest where everyone is hitting these greens and rolling them in from 15 feet, his advantage can feel slightly muted.

Henley, on the other hand, checks every box at this number. There’s really no reason to talk yourself out of him.

However, last week was interesting. By his standards, it was a bit of a disappointment. Not all bad, but Friday was the clear outlier. He lost -2.1 strokes off the tee and another -1.65 on approach. Outside of that, the ball-striking was strong. He gained strokes on approach in three of four rounds and still managed to finish T19.

This week in La Quinta, his price and skill set line up perfectly.

When scoring becomes mandatory, it’s usually best to avoid the “grinder” archetype. Great golfers can contend at PGA WEST, but if they aren’t filling it up often, they are fighting an uphill battle from the opening hole.

Harris English (+5500) is a good example of a player I’d rather deploy on tougher courses. English is a strong putter, and the flatstick could keep him floating near the number, but the birdie ceiling isn’t quite the same as others around him on the odds board.

Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 113th in Birdies or Better Gained. That matters here. His course history supports it, too: Just one top-15 finish (T11 in 2018), and even that week was more putter-driven than ball striking dominance.

At The American Express, pars are not your friend.

If a golfer opens with a string of pars, they are basically playing themselves out of the tournament. Every par on these courses feels just like a bogey.

Round 1 matchup: Ludvig Åberg (-135) over Harris English

This will be Åberg’s (+2500) first trip to La Quinta for The American Express, but I’m not treating that like a negative. If anything, this feels like an A+ spot for him to take advantage early, especially in a first-round matchup.

As I mentioned earlier, English isn’t an ideal fit for this event. He doesn’t make birdies at the rate you typically need in the desert, and his history here doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. English can survive at tougher venues because he’s a steady putter and knows how to grind. But that profile doesn’t always translate when the course is begging players to go low.

Åberg is a birdie machine, whose ball-striking will set him up for ample opportunities. The first-round angle makes even more sense when you factor in the early-round trends. Aberg's average first-round finish ranks third in the field, while English's ranks 22nd.

Patrick Cantlay, Top-20 finish (with ties) +110

Cantlay is one of the few players in this field who feels tailor-made for The American Express. PGA West demands elite ball striking. Golfers must pepper greens and create plenty of birdie chances.

The course history is strong, and it’s consistent. Four top-20 finishes in seven starts. He’s comfortable on the greens here, and the pace of play hasn’t seemed to bother him.

The real reason he stands out in the Top 20 market is the ball-striking. Cantlay is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. At plus-money, Cantlay to finish inside the top 20 is the kind of bet that feels mispriced. If he shows up with his usual elite iron play, he will be in the mix all week.

Best value on the board: Harry Hall (+4500)

After teeing it up in the final pairing on Sunday at the Sony Open, Hall showed his game belongs in the mix on a weekly basis. The finish probably stung, but there’s no hiding how impressive the overall week was. A T6 result while gaining strokes across the bag is exactly the type of performance that leads me back to him at a great price.

What’s quietly stood out most is the iron play. Hall has now gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, and that’s precisely what we are looking for this week. His driver has been the one lingering concern over the back half of last season, but PGA WEST doesn’t demand perfection off the tee. Even that area looked encouraging at Waialae, where he gained +2.87 strokes off the tee.

Putting will still matter in the desert because you have to keep pace, and that’s another plus. Hall is one of the better putters in this field and tends to convert when the scoring conditions get easy. Add in his solid proximity from 125 to 150 yards, and you’re looking at a player who should have plenty of looks.

He still needs to prove he can close, but if he keeps putting himself in position, that next win is coming sooner rather than later.

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