Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm bounce back on the cards at Bay Hill

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler and world No. 1 Jon Rahm were among the casualties at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge on Friday as the wind whipped up and gusts caught players guessing at times.

Some players showed the breeze was no bother. Kurt Kitayama was sublime on his way to a clever 4-under 68 leaving him in command at nine under for the tournament, two shots clear of Jordan Spieth. Spieth, a 13-time PGA TOUR winner, scrapped his way to seven under and second alone.

But Rahm (76) and Scheffler (72) were among those to lose ground with Rahm going from the lead to six off the pace and Scheffler sitting six back.

Will they rebound? Who is set to hold steady as the greens firm back up and Bay Hill shows it’s not just wind that can trip folks up.

DRAWS

Jon Rahm (-3, T13, +1200 to win)

It’s hard to comprehend the man who has won three of his last five TOUR starts and started the +140 favorite Friday after a sensational opening 65 finished with three bogeys and a double bogey in a second round 76. But that’s how it went down and now Rahm faces the weekend six shots back of the lead.

And while that type of finish is enough to give anyone nightmares… I reckon it’s going to fire Rahm up. While one might be worried to invest in reverse momentum, the Spaniard will take it as a personal embarrassment and be out to show his recent dominance is not about to let up.

He still ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 19th in SG: Around the Green and 58th in SG: Putting. His problem came off the tee where he ranks 104th in SG: Off-the-Tee, losing -2.648 shots to the field. That will not continue.

Xander Schauffele (-6, T3, +650 to win)

Of the last eight winners at Bay Hill, six of them were inside the top 21 in the field in BOTH SG: Approach and SG: Putting for the week. They needed to hit it close and take advantage. One player currently trending towards possibly being inside both is Schauffele who is fourth on approach and 25th in putting.

Importantly, Schauffele has just two bogeys – one in each round – this week. He leads the field in bogey avoidance which will be a critical factor over the weekend.

Patrick Cantlay (-5, T5, +1000 to win)

Inside the top 30 off the tee, on approach and on the greens Cantlay is the type of robotic ball-striker who should be made for the conditions as they get tougher. It’s his first time at Bay Hill, which may spook some people, but Cantlay’s laser focus and quick learning abilities should offset this.

Justin Thomas (-5, T5, +1000 to win)

It’s funny how back-to-back bogeys to end the day can make a 67 feel below average. Thomas was on fire in the afternoon wave, surging to seven under on his round through 16 holes to move as close as just two back.

But miscues on the last two holes saw the 15-time TOUR winner give a few shots back, taking some shine off an otherwise brilliant performance. Like Cantlay, Thomas has little history at Bay Hill (T49 as a youngster in 2015) but does have a quick learning curve.

His lost shots have come around the greens, but given he ranks 17th on approach and ninth in putting this week, he looks like a serious contender.

FADES

Jordan Spieth (-7, 2nd, +650 to win)

He’s the co-betting favorite and an accomplished TOUR winner but I’ve got some concerns for Spieth ahead of the weekend at Bay Hill.

A huge percentage of his success has come from short game magic around the greens – he ranks first in the field in SG: Around-the-Green (+4.964) with another of his ridiculously skilled bunker hole outs amongst it.

But Spieth can’t expect that to be the path to victory. Bay Hill will bite his backside if he keeps missing fairways and greens. And did you use his duck hook off the 18th tee? That was not a confidence builder.

Kurt Kitayama (-9, 1st, +900 to win)

The man himself might think it’s Kurt Kitayama time but I’m not a believer… yet.

Don’t get me wrong, Kitayama has been magnificent over the opening two rounds and if he keeps these standards, he will be very hard to beat indeed. He’s 23rd in SG: Off-the-Tee; eighth in SG: Approach; eighth in SG: Around the Green; and 13th in SG: Putting.

His season ranks in those metrics don’t read so well at 106th, 69th, 63rd and 128th respectively and with the pressure of the final group in a huge event ahead of him you can expect some regression to the mean.

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