Running with Rick: Scottie Scheffler headlines 3M Open as heavy favorite

After two weeks overseas, the PGA TOUR returns to the United States for the 3M Open, contested at TPC Twin Cities. This is one of the newer events on the PGA TOUR schedule. It was created in 2019, so this year will mark the eighth playing of the event.

We are now starting to get a proper sample size to assess the trends and statistical profiles of players who should have success at the venue. One of the most notable features of TPC Twin Cities is the water that lurks on nearly every hole. There are 15 holes with water in play, many of which present danger on both the tee shot and approach shot.

The most important factor at this venue is keeping your ball dry. We will see plenty of big numbers from those who cannot abide by the golden rule. Once that task is conquered, TPC Twin Cities should be rather scorable. Winning scores have often eclipsed 20-under par, with scoring opportunities on most holes.

Despite its spot in the busy schedule, the 3M Open has attracted the No. 1 player in the world this week. Scottie Scheffler will be making his tournament debut and is the heavy favorite to be holding the trophy on Sunday afternoon. Anyone else with ambitions of winning will almost certainly need to outduel Scheffler.

While the odds are shocking, +275 to win the event, the case for Scheffler is exceedingly strong. He’s the best player in this field by a very wide margin. Over the last 50 rounds, Scheffler has gained 2.31 strokes per round, which is twice the rate of the second-best player in the field – Ben Kohles at 1.12 per round. I’m racking my brain and checking the archives, but I could not find a scenario with a gap that large between the top two players. Of course, the gap between Scheffler and the average player in this field is much larger.

The lasting memory of Scheffler from The Open will be his inability to make putts. He lost multiple strokes to the field on the putting surfaces, displayed his frustration and still finished T4.

Don’t let that performance blind you to the excellent putting year Scheffler has had. He had gained strokes putting in five straight events prior to The Open and has been a positive putter in 11 of 16 starts this year. I understand the ramifications of this short price, but Scheffler is the pick to win the 3M Open.

His odds will create a variety of markets, like the “Without Scheffler” market, that are certainly worth considering this week. The aforementioned Ben Kohles comes to mind for this deployment.

Kohles didn’t play anywhere last week, so he will be one of the few well-rested players teeing it up in Blaine this week. His last six starts have all resulted in top-30 finishes and also include his win at the BMW Charity Pro-Am on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Of course, he could have (should have?) won the John Deere Classic before making a big mistake on the 72nd hole and finishing T3. He has gained 35.11 strokes on approach across his 10 starts, and his putter has heated up over his last three. This is a perfect spot for Kohles to contend, making his “Without Scheffler” (+6400) and top-five finishing position (+1150) markets the most appealing.

Aaron Wise has missed significant time on TOUR over the last few years because of a variety of setbacks, but he’s back to looking like the highly touted prospect we knew from a few years ago.

Wise finished T39 at the John Deere Classic, but that was just the beginning of this stellar run. He followed that up with a T3 at the ISCO Championship and a T15 at last week’s Corales Puntacana Championship.

Those two most recent starts were “complete gains,” meaning he gained strokes in all four major categories. That is usually one of the best predictive markers for immediate success. Part of me wanted to be conservative and roll out Wise in the top-20 market, but I don’t think that fully captures the upside he has in a field like this. I would prefer the top-10 market, where he can currently be found at +970.

I’ve reserved the top-20 market for Zac Blair, who has the best chance of keeping his ball in play this week. Blair is one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on the planet, if not the most accurate. He’s not long, but he’s going to remove the water risk on nearly every occasion.

Beyond that, Blair has trended upward over his last five starts. He’s earned at least a top-40 finish in all of them, including a pair of top-10s in his last two – the John Deere Classic and the ISCO Championship.

In 17 starts this year, Blair has gained 0.98 strokes per round, marking the best year of his professional career. His +330 price to finish inside the top 20 is well worth the investment.

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