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Mar 3, 2025

Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler favorited by oddsmakers for another Bay Hill cardigan

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Every shot from Scottie Scheffler’s win at Arnold Palmer Invitational | 2024

Every shot from Scottie Scheffler’s win at Arnold Palmer Invitational | 2024

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    The second week of four consecutive weeks in Florida features a return to Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

    Located southwest of downtown Orlando, Florida, the fourth Signature Event of the 2025 season features a field of 72 players highlighted by the favorite at the FanDuel Sportsbook, Scottie Scheffler (+320). The 2022 and 2024 champion is in search of his first win in his fourth start this year following offseason hand surgery. Sitting one shot off the 36-hole lead two weeks ago in San Diego, Scheffler uncharacteristically stumbled to a round of 76, his highest total since posting 74 in June 2024, before he righted the ship with 66 on Sunday. Bay Hill ranks in the top 10 of most difficult tracks played annually, and the Texan has not finished outside the top five in the last three editions.

    Rory McIlroy (+750) is next on the odds board, as champion at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February checks in as the second choice. Making just his third start of 2025, the four-time major champion should be rested and ready to contend. A winner at three of the four stops on the Florida Swing in his career, McIlroy won this event in 2018 and has cashed T27 or better in all 10 starts, including six top-10 results. The demanding layout, featuring four par-3 holes extending 199 yards or better and four par-5 chances, favors the modern power player, and McIlroy easily qualifies.

    The winner at The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines, big-hitting Ludvig Åberg (+1600), joins McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama among the top choices at Bay Hill who have already won a Signature Event this year. Closing 65-64 for T5 at The Sentry in the first event of the season, the only force of nature to slow down the Swedish star was a malady he contracted at the Farmers Insurance Open (T42) and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (WD). Fully healthy, he was just one of two players to post double-digits under par at La Jolla. The Arnold Palmer Invitational was the first time he graced the top 25 at a PGA TOUR event. Mind you, he was a senior at Texas Tech and teeing it up for the fourth time in a TOUR event. The amateur did not take any money home from his T24 final position on the leaderboard, but later that year in September, he would win in Europe, followed by his first TOUR victory at The RSM Classic. Returning as a professional for the 2024 event, he cashed T25.

    The last time we saw World No. 3 Xander Schauffele (+1600) on TOUR, he was opening the 2025 season with T30 at The Sentry. Missing the past two months with a rib injury, the two-time major champion from 2024 returns this week and jumps right into the fire of a Signature Event before THE PLAYERS Championship next week at TPC Sawgrass. Sharpening his sword against a field including 46 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking on a demanding track with a 36-hole cut, plus checking in as the co-third choice on the board, suggests he is healthy and ready to go. Making his fourth start outside the Magic Kingdom, like Åberg, he has never registered a finish inside T24 from three previous visits.


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    Collin Morikawa (+2200) is the top choice from the non-power player division, but what he lacks in pop off the tee, he makes up for in accuracy. Currently ranked second in Strokes Gained: Total and SG: Tee-to-Green, the two-time major winner knows what it takes to knock off the most demanding fields in golf. Making his fourth start of the season and fourth Signature Event, the Californian has not found the winner’s circle since the Baycurrent Classic in the fall of 2023. The winner of the 2021 Workday at The Concession on the west coast of Florida, his record at Bay Hill shows one top 10 (T9; 2020) from four starts and a pair of early checkouts in 2023 and 2024.

    Heavily backed to begin the season after his victory at The Sentry, Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) makes his seventh start of 2025. After claiming the first Signature Event of the season, the Japanese stud has cooled and not breached the top 10 since. Qualifying for the weekend in the next five events, he closed 68-70 for T13 at Torrey Pines in his defense at The Genesis Invitational his last time out. After making his debut in 2015 at Bay Hill, he has returned every year and played the weekend nine times from 10 starts. The only season he missed the cut was 2023, and three of his last four visits were T20 or better, highlighted by T12 in 2024.

    Recent results suggest Justin Thomas (+2800) is inching closer and closer to his 16th TOUR victory. The Florida transplant, on the back of crisp approach play (No. 5 SG: Approach), has cracked the top 10 three times in five outings in 2025, including a solo second at The American Express, T6 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T9 at The Genesis Invitational in February. Add those results with T2 at the Baycurrent Classic in October, a solo third at the Hero World Challenge in December of 2024, and the dots connect. Another top-10 result this week would be his first in four starts at Bay Hill.

    Last week’s winner at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, Joe Highsmith (+25000), will make his Signature Event debut. The 24-year-old left-hander will be in the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the remaining four Signature Events of 2025 … A winner in 2016, Jason Day (+8000) is one of just three past champions in the field … The Aon Swing 5 includes Aldrich Potgieter (+12000), Jacob Bridgeman (+25000), Ben Griffin (+8000), Isaiah Salinda (+15000) and Max McGreevy (+35000).

    This is the first Additional Event week on TOUR in 2025, as a full field will also contest the Puerto Rico Open. Niklas Norgaard is listed as a +2200 favorite to get his first TOUR win in Puerto Rico.

    Here's a look at some of the other notable odds for the rest of the API field, via FanDuel:

    • +3000: Patrick Cantlay
    • +3500: Tommy Fleetwood
    • +4500: Sungjae Im
    • +5000: Will Zalatoris
    • +5500: Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Maverick McNealy
    • +6000: Wyndham Clark, Robert MacIntyre, Tony Finau
    • +6500: Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger
    • +7000: Sepp Straka, Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith
    • +7500: Tom Kim
    • +8000: Si Woo Kim, Michael Kim, Akshay Bhatia
    • +9000: Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Davis Thompson, Denny McCarthy

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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