Deja vu as rising winds look to make their mark at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
5 Min Read
After nearly two days of gentle breezes on the Monterey Peninsula, Mother Nature is set to turn the screws on the competitors during the third round at the AT&T Pebble Brach Pro-Am.
Near non-existent in the first round, winds stiffened from around 5 mph to 15 mph as the second round came to a close on Friday. And the forecast suggests Saturday’s third round will face freshening 20 mph winds and 30 mph gusts along the famous coastline.
Last week on TOUR, the Farmers Insurance Open faced similar wind issues, making Harris English’s march to victory a serious grind as the tough conditions saw plenty of scores soar.
While last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was hit by a severe storm, washing out the final round, circumstances won’t hit quite as hard this time around. There is, however, expected to be some rain.
"Intermittent rainfall is expected much of the morning Saturday, with trends beginning to weaken the total amount of precipitation in our area," PGA TOUR meteorologist Tim Calamari. "Winds will continue to increase through the overnight hours into Saturday morning, with sustained winds between 12-20 (mph) and gusts in the upper-20s/near 30 mph at times along the coast. Winds will remain elevated Sunday with a more isolated nature for any lingering showers."
The players in contention are already planning for the transformation.
“It's going to change Pebble a lot," said Tony Finau, who sits four off the lead. "It's unfortunate because Pebble is pure right now, really pure. The ball is bouncing and anytime that's the case at Pebble I think it's pretty magical to play. We'll have to adjust, just adapt as we do out here and we'll just have to do that on the weekend.”
The recent American Express champion Sepp Straka surged to the lead with a 7-under 65 at Pebble Beach on Friday, moving to 14-under and a three-shot lead. He is now a clear betting favorite at +280 via FanDuel Sportsbook.
“The wind changes it a lot," Straka said. "This course, the greens are tiny, but if there's no wind and you're in the fairway you can really take advantage of it. But once you pick up a little bit of wind, it's harder to hit fairways and the greens obviously play a lot smaller. The forecast looks pretty rough. I think it's going to be a lot more challenging.”
Australian Cam Davis and overnight leader Russell Henley share second place at 11-under, with Henley chasing a fifth PGA TOUR title and Davis a third. Henley knows his mindset is key.
“Try to be positive," Henley said. "Everybody's got to deal with it though so I'm just going to try to commit to my shots and make some good decisions and hopefully that works out."
Joining Finau at 10-under and tied for fourth are Tom Kim, Andrew Novak, Justin Rose and Austin Eckroat. Viktor Hovland, Eric Cole, Lucas Glover and Lee Hodges are tied ninth at 9-under.
Closing eagles from Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas helped keep them on the fringe of contention at 8-under, joined by fellow major winners Collin Morikawa and Shane Lowry plus Patrick Cantlay and Rasmus Højgaard.

Justin Thomas' insane eagle hole-out at AT&T Pebble Beach
Scottie Scheffler saved par on 18 despite hitting his tee shot onto the beach and starts the weekend seven shots back in his first event of 2025.
As the entire field returns to Pebble Beach for the weekend rounds, FanDuel Sportsbook has the current odds as follows:
- +280: Sepp Straka (-14, first)
- +1000: Russell Henley (-11, T2)
- +1200: Scottie Scheffler (-7, T20)
- +1600: Cam Davis (-11, T2)
- +1600: Tom Kim (-10, T4)
- +1600: Rory McIlroy (-8, T13)
- +1800: Justin Thomas (-8, T13)
- +1800: Collin Morikawa (-8, T13)
- +2000: Tony Finau (-10, T4)
- +2200: Viktor Hovland (-9, T9)
- +2200: Patrick Cantlay (-8, T13)
- +2800: Andrew Novak (-10, T4)
- +2800: Austin Eckroat (-10, T4)
While Straka’s form looks great (and I hope you listened after the opening round when I suggested his value at +1600 was decent), the incoming weather makes the chance of a comeback victory potentially more likely. Straka won’t be able to dictate terms easily so jumping on at the current odds is not as wise. (Cam Davis at +4500 last night looks good now also right?)
But who might chase Straka down with the winds coming up? Well now I have to rely on known ball-strikers – and not those with a higher ball flight (sorry Rory). If the winds start to affect more putts, those who are putting average so far could get a leg up. Truth be told, the prudent play might be waiting out the tougher third round and then reevaluating. You can’t count Scheffler out yet, but it only takes the smallest amount of rust to be exposed in tough conditions.
If you want an option now …
Patrick Cantlay +2200
The reality is Cantlay is giving up a significant start to Straka, and I would have loved to get higher odds, but if someone at any value is to surge it could be the guy who has finished inside the top 11 his last four trips here. Through two rounds Cantlay is also ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach so if he maintains that level, he’s a chance. His putting has let him down so far, ranked 66th. But if he shows some improvement, or others come back to the field a little, he could sneak up on them.
Collin Morikawa +1800
Ranking seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee and 12th in SG: Approach has helped Morikawa rank fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Another player who has shown he can handle tougher conditions before but who will need to make some more putts.
Aaron Rai Top 10 +450
If you are looking for a “mudder,” look no further than Rai who had four wet weather-affected top 10s last season, including his win at the Wyndham Championship! For some reason, the Englishman thrives when it gets cold, wet and windy and right now he’s 7-under, T20 and within range of a surge into the top 10 at decent odds.
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Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.