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13D AGO

For and against: Why contenders can – or might not – triumph at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2 Min Read

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    Written by Ben Everill @BEverillGolfbet

    We have the makings of a sensational final round ahead at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a host of challengers, headed by major winners Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, moving into position to snatch the trophy at the iconic venue.

    Despite a period of heavy wind gusts around 30 mph in the middle of the third round, it was great friends, McIlroy and Lowry – winners as a duo at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last season – who both posted the best rounds of the day at 7-under 65s.

    It pushed them to 15-under for the tournament, just one shot off the lead held by Austria’s Sepp Straka (70) who sits alone atop at 16-under. Straka battled flu-like symptoms through the round, losing some of his overnight three-shot cushion.

    England’s Justin Rose, one of just five non-American winners at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2023) from 83 previous iterations, is just two shots behind after a 68 moved him to 14-under.

    He is joined by Australian Cam Davis (69) and South Korean Tom Kim (68) with designs on snatching victory on Sunday.

    Veteran Lucas Glover (68) will look to keep American dominance in the tournament alive from three back at 13-under, as will Russell Henley (71) from 12-under and Austin Eckroat (71) from 11-under.

    World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler remains an outside chance sitting six shots off the pace at 10-under in a tie for 10th.

    With a round to play, FanDuel Sportsbook has McIlroy as the favorite as he chases a 27th PGA TOUR win, with the other contenders as follows.

    • +230: Rory McIlroy (15-under)
    • +300: Sepp Straka (16-under)
    • +450: Shane Lowry (15-under)
    • +800: Tom Kim (14-under)
    • +1200: Cam Davis (14-under)
    • +1200: Justin Rose (14-under)
    • +2800: Lucas Glover (13-under)
    • +3300: Russell Henley (12-under)
    • +3500: Scottie Scheffler (10-under)
    • +11000: Austin Eckroat (11-under)

    Personally, I’ve got to give props to McIlroy at this point. I thought he was a red-light option pre-tournament given his history of slow starts on the PGA TOUR season and with big winds on Saturday I doubled down believing his ball flight might hamper his efforts.

    Regardless of what happens from here, the Northern Irishman has shown he can handle whatever Pebble Beach throws his way. But he’s not going to be handed an easy win with all those within five — and even Scheffler at six back — not out of this.

    Here is a reason why each contender can win, and one why they might not:

    Rory McIlroy +230

    • Case for: Has more winning experience than anyone else in the mix and leads the field this week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance and Front 9 Scoring while also sitting fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
    • Case against: While his tee shots have been exceptional, the ones that find rough have left him vulnerable. Ranks 75th of 79 players in Rough Proximity, so he will need to stay out of it.

    Rory McIlroy gets up-and-down to save par at AT&T Pebble Beach

    Rory McIlroy gets up-and-down to save par at AT&T Pebble Beach


    Sepp Straka +300

    • Case for: Coming off a recent win at The American Express, Straka is full of confidence. Leads the field this week in Total Birdies and Par Breakers Percentage, Sand Saves, Fairway Proximity, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach and SG: Total and is second in Driving Accuracy.
    • Case against: Word is Straka is suffering through flu-like symptoms which could affect his focus and energy levels again on Sunday. Much like Ludvig Åberg fell at Torrey Pines, Straka could be fighting more than his opponents. Being 42nd in SG: Putting isn’t super exciting with a shootout looming.

    Shane Lowry rolls in 17-foot eagle putt at AT&T Pebble Beach

    Shane Lowry rolls in 17-foot eagle putt at AT&T Pebble Beach


    Shane Lowry +450

    • Case for: Is no stranger to cool, wet and breezy coastal conditions when it comes to playing good golf. Leads the field in Back 9 Scoring and is yet to have a three-putt, while T3 in Bogey Avoidance and fifth in Scrambling.
    • Case against: He’s giving up Driving Distance to most others this week and has lost strokes off the tee in both Pebble rounds so far this week. Is 44th of 79 players in SG: Around-the-Green.

    Tom Kim +800

    • Case for: It is par-4 performance that is giving Kim a chance this week as he leads the field in par breakers on those holes and sits 11-under on them. His wedge game has also been on point, leading the field in birdie or better from inside 125 yards. The South Korean is second in total birdies.
    • Case against: The par 3s can be critical in this tournament, and currently, Kim ranks T65 in Par 3 Scoring Average.

    Cam Davis +1200

    • Case for: Has been the eagle king this week with three of them and leads the field in approaches from inside 100 yards. Has also been perfect when scrambling from outside 20 yards. Is 12-under on the par 5s.
    • Case against: It has pretty much been all about the par 5s. While mauling those will help Sunday, he'll need to make some waves elsewhere to get over the line. His scrambling from inside 20 yards has not been pretty, converting just three of eight times.

    Justin Rose +1200

    • Case for: Already a proven winner at Pebble Beach in 2023, Rose knows patience could be key on Sunday. He hasn’t missed a putt inside 5 feet. and has gained strokes in all SG metrics.
    • Case against: He ranks 73rd of 79 players in approaches inside 100 yards.

    Lucas Glover +2800

    • Case for: Tied for the lead in Back 9 Scoring, third in Par 3 Scoring, third in SG: Putting, third in Bogey Average and second in Scrambling. He's playing as a veteran with nothing to lose.
    • Case against: Near the back of the pack in Driving Distance, 68th in SG: Around-the-Green, 66th in SG: Off-the-Tee and missed two putts inside 5 feet which could prove critical.

    Russell Henley +3300

    • Case for: Leads the field in SG: Putting, Par 4 Scoring Average, is second in Birdie Average and sits fourth in SG: Total and Proximity to Hole.
    • Case against: Hasn’t eaten at the par 5s like others, ranking T70 in Par 5 Scoring Average. If he doesn’t make birdies on the long holes Sunday, he won’t catch the leaders.

    Scottie Scheffler +3500

    • Case for: He’s Scottie Scheffler. He showed six shots was not insurmountable at the Olympics last year. Hasn’t missed a putt inside 5 feet this week. The world No. 1 is second in Front 9 Scoring and fourth in SG: Approach.
    • Case against: A distant 76th of 79 players in SG: Around-the-Green and is 1-over on the back nine holes at Pebble this week which is hardly the recipe for storming to victory.

    Scottie Scheffler sticks his third to set up birdie at AT&T Pebble Beach

    Scottie Scheffler sticks his third to set up birdie at AT&T Pebble Beach



    I’m leaning towards Straka if his health holds up, but Lowry if it doesn’t. Apologies to both! Good luck!

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

    Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.