Draws and Fades: John Deere Classic

Just like Mark O’Meara at Pebble Beach and Davis Love III at Harbour Town, we knew that the day would come when Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson would stop winning the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Sleeper picks

This isn’t to say that, say, ZJ is definitely done, but we’re definitely in that zone between him contending annually and never again. Remembering how strong his record in the tournament has been, it’s kind of hard to believe that he’s recorded “only” one victory, and that it’s been now 10 years. Three seconds, two thirds and a T5 also are deposited in the memory bank.

This is the first year that neither Stricker nor ZJ have been in my Power Rankings for the JDC. And even though I’m always focused forward, it still feels odd that it’s likely that ZJ won’t win this week. (He finished outside the top 30 in his last two appearances, so the trend supports the general fade.)

The 55-year-old Stricker withdrew (see NOTABLE WDS below), but even if he had played, he and ZJ never could be even Sleepers at TPC Deere Run. Of course, we can still use ZJ as a complement in DFS and in many other ways to benefit our cause, but if you haven’t already, it’s time to leave him out of your One & Done considerations, just as we learned to accept with O’Meara and DL3 on tracks where each won five times.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Jason Day (+140 for a Top 20) … It doesn’t feel like it but the Aussie is 108th in the FedExCup. That’s the impact of a T3 at Torrey Pines where he collected what still accounts for 43.67 percent of his season total of FedExCup points. It’s his only top 10 in individual competition in over 12 months. He hasn’t appeared at TPC Deere Run since 2011. It’s also where he made his first of what now is 306 PGA TOUR starts (in 2006). If you’re chasing in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, he’s arguably the glossiest name on the board to grab in what likely will be a week when the front-runners stand ground.

DRAWS

Patrick Rodgers (+150 for a Top 20) … I’m not as hopeful as a couple of my fellow little leaguers in Expert Picks, but he’s done nothing to suggest that consistently solid form will cease. He’s among the most proficient on approach and with the putter but getting the two strengths to align simultaneously has been the struggle. Since 2016, he’s 4-for-4 at TPC Deere Run with a solo second (2017) among a trio of top 30s. Sticking with that theme, he’ll celebrate his 30th birthday on Thursday.

Charles Howell III (+140 for a Top 20) … Not as useful as he once was but the 43-year-old is helpful this week. He’s 12-for-13 at TPC Deere Run with nine top 25s, including in each of his last three trips. If you’re more conservative, consider that all of his five paydays in his last seven starts in 2022 went for a top 35, so target the top-40 market.

Zach Johnson (+333 for a Top 20) … The advice is to retreat into a make-the-cut bet where you can find it, otherwise default into a top 40 wherever possible. He’s cashed in every JDC since 2008 and he’s finished inside the top 40 in every edition since 2009. Regardless of form upon arrival, he’s a Horse for the Course, but you already knew that.

Brendon Todd (+140 for a Top 20) … Went 0-for-6 at TPC Deere Run until a T18 in his last visit in 2019. It’s the kind of thing that happens in a shootout to a guy who relies so much on his putter. The irons are fine but he serves as a make/miss-the-cut bet based on your personal preference. Just have fun with it.

Dylan Frittelli (+250 for a Top 20) … The 2019 champ missed the cut in his title defense, but that’s fine. Even though he’s won abroad, it was a first-time experience on the PGA TOUR. Focusing only on 2022, he connected 10 paydays until missing last week’s cut, so he presents as comfortable in DFS, but course-history buffs likely will inflate his ownership percentage, anyway.

Hayden Buckley
Lee Hodges
Martin Laird
Chez Reavie
Matthias Schwab
Alex Smalley

Odds sourced on Tuesday, June 28th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Cameron Champ … Just when he teases us with a T10-T6 burst from Augusta National to Vidanta and gives us hope that he’s moved on from a sore left wrist, he’s gone 0-for-4 since the PGA Championship and hasn’t broken par since closing out a T38 at TPC Craig Ranch with a 65. While he surged for a T11 here last year after a similar slump, and then won two weeks later in Minnesota, that’s not the kind of quality sample size that gamers should expect anyone to replicate.

Patton Kizzire … If you read Pick ‘Em Preview that publishes on Wednesdays, then you know how I rode him hard as my R1 Leader in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live. Despite a low first-round scoring average, it hasn’t paid off. The same could be said of his results over the last three months. He’s regressed to 123rd in the FedExCup after going 4-for-9 with just one top-60 finish (T26, Heritage). It’s possible, if not likely, that he’ll reconnect at TPC Deere Run because he’s perfect in three trips with no worse than a T30 in 2018, but split the difference and settle for a top-40 bet.

Brian Stuard … A T8 here last year sparked a sizzling July but he returns after missing six straight cuts to drift to 131st in the FedExCup. Only for the faint of heart needing to go yard into a stiff breeze.

Boo Weekley … If you must, limit your action to a make-the-cut bet, but good luck finding that. The reason I’ve included him here is because he hasn’t played the PGA TOUR since The RSM Classic in November of 2019. That’s pre-pandemic, gang. He had his left hip replaced in January of 2021 and didn’t return to sanctioned action this June and went 1-for-3 on the Korn Ferry Tour, but he’s chipping away the rust for a run at the PGA TOUR Champion when he turns 50 next summer.

Lanto Griffin
Harry Higgs
Charley Hoffman
Andrew Putnam

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Taylor Pendrith … A fractured rib sidelined him since a T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship. After early withdrawals from the three events that immediately followed, the Canadian targeted a return to compete in his national open three weeks ago. Alas, that also resulted in an early WD. The good news, at least for him, is that he’s still 107th in the FedExCup, so he’s been able to take his time to recover. Full-season investors finally will exhale once he pierces the turf at TPC Deere Run on Thursday.

Chris Stroud … Hasn’t played since missing the cut at The Honda Classic. He’s already on a medical extension for an injured back, but now he’s been out four months after having surgery on a wrist, so he could have overlapping medical extensions in the future, if necessary. If not for the aches and pains, he’d have been a Sleeper at TPC Deere Run because he’s 10-for-11 with two top fives among five top 25s. His last appearance was in 2019.

Greg Chalmers … Spine arthritis got the better of him in his last start at St. George’s, but the 48-year-old has been limited to six starts due to Past Champion status, anyway. But hey, toss him into exactly one DFS lineup as a flier. He’s cashed in his last four trips to TPC Deere Run, including last year when he sat T18 at the midpoint (before fading to 68th).

Tyler McCumber … Committed to the Korn Ferry Tour’s The Ascendant presented by Blue. Like Stroud, McCumber also has been out since missing the cut at The Honda Classic with a sore left shoulder. It prevented him from giving it a go at THE PLAYERS. Now that he’s sat out four months, he presumably is eligible for a Major Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR in 2022-23. Currently 181st in the FedExCup, there’s still time to get back to the Playoffs, but he’ll need to hustle.

Zac Blair … Also in the field at The Ascendant presented by Blue. It’ll be his first sanctioned competition since the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in October of 2020. A month later, he underwent surgery to repair two tears in the labrum of his right shoulder. He’s hinted at previous comebacks, but he’s defaulted into the adage that one never can return too late from injury. Doesn’t return completely rusty as he tried Final Qualifying for the U.S. Open in Springfield, Ohio, on June 6. He shot 3-over 143 in the 36-hole sprint, seven strokes too many to consider qualifying for the major.

NOTABLES WDs

Daniel Berger … Withdrew on Monday. Cited on Twitter, “I am working on getting back to 100% but do not feel prepared to tee it up on Thursday.” It’s been an up-and-down season that didn’t start until the 2022 portion. Discomfort in his back thwarted his title defense at Pebble Beach and an appearance at Vidanta.

J.J. Spaun … Since breaking through for victory at TPC San Antonio and answering with a T23 in his debut at the Masters, he’s cashed just once in six starts. The tailspin included a mid-tournament WD at Colonial due to a sore back.

Davis Riley … Can’t play ‘em all, but when he’s played in the last three months, he’s been dynamite. Since his playoff loss at Copperhead, he’s 10-for-11 with five top 10s and a pair of T13s.

Steve Stricker … The all-time earnings leader and three-time champion of the John Deere Classic hasn’t missed a beat since returning from his serious illness last fall, but he’s eschewed playing time on the PGA TOUR in favor of the PGA TOUR Champions where he’s fourth on the money list in just six starts.

Sangmoon Bae … He’s opted for The Ascendant presented by Blue. At 104th in the KFT standings, he’s 84 points outside the top 75.

RECAP – TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Scottie Scheffler T13
2 Rory McIlroy T19
3 Justin Thomas DNP
4 Patrick Cantlay T13
5 Sam Burns MC
6 Jordan Spieth MC
7 Xander Schauffele Win
8 Sungjae Im DNP
9 Seamus Power T25
10 Joaquin Niemann MC
11 Davis Riley T64
12 Brian Harman T8
13 Mito Pereira MC
14 Aaron Wise MC
15 Marc Leishman MC
Wild Card Denny McCarthy MC

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet) Result
Lucas Glover (+500 for a Top 20) T70
Matthew NeSmith (+400 for a Top 20) T19
Andrew Putnam (+550 for a Top 20) T46
Alex Smalley (+400 for a Top 20) MC
Brendan Steele (+175 for a Top 20) T25

GOLFBET

Bet: Scottie Scheffler (Top 5), Patrick Cantlay (Top 10) and Xander Schauffele (Top 20) – +2000
Result: T13/T13/Win

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

June 28 … Si Woo Kim (27)
June 29 … Anirban Lahiri (35); Trey Mullinax (30)
June 30 … Patrick Rodgers (30)
July 1 … none
July 2 … none
July 3 … none
July 4 … none