Pick 'Em Preview: Charles Schwab Challenge

32,377.

That was Jimbest’s record-high total as the first-place entry in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live for the PGA Championship. How you ask? Easy! Yeah, right.

Jimbest had Justin Thomas at +30000 to win, and then let it ride. That was just before the turn of the final round when JT was shanking his way around Southern Hills Country Club. Hey, if that sounds harsh, even PointsBet was fine with being exposed at those odds on a Sunday of a major championship with a slew of PGA TOUR non-winners pushing each other around for control of the lead amidst the most pressure any ever had experienced.

So perfectly timed was Jimbest’s maneuver that he was the only of over 6,500 entries to nab it. Three others snatched JT at +25000, but that’s a chasm of a difference, even at that space-scraping altitude on the leaderboard.

It’s unlikely that we’ll see this kind of real-time fluidity on the extreme again, but we didn’t expect to see it the first time. The lesson is that it’s possible when the ultimate target is closer than it appears. All of Jimbest’s “not-others to win” permutations, uh, converted. What a story. JT’s, too.

Up next is the Charles Schwab Challenge where the outcome figures to favor no worse than pars at the finish line. Rob and Glass have surveyed the solid field of 120 at Colonial Country Club. As usual, they’ve shared their opening bets below.

Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers.

For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here.

TOURNAMENT

TO WIN

Rob … Patton Kizzire (+10000)

For six years now, I've chronicled how the winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge have obeyed a trend, at least well enough to warrant the continuation of my series. Refer to this week's Power Rankings for that detail.

Kizzire (No. 13 in the PR) slides into the hot seat this year. Because his first-round scores have been red in every start but one, I've used him (too) often as my pick to be the R1 leader, so this is a nice change of pace that should start strong.

Glass … Lucas Glover (+12500)

OK gang, you know the rules by now: Find a guy at big odds and let's get lucky. Not quite Justin Thomas-+25000-after-eight-holes-on-Sunday lucky, but you get my point.

I like chasing shadows down dark alleys, and this format is perfect in letting daydreams play out. Glover played his 15th event at Colonial last season and pocketed his first top 10. At Southern Hills, he opened with 75 but played his final three rounds 69-68-70 for a T23. Has he cracked the code??? His strength is his tee-to-green game (14th in fairways hit, 17th in GIR) and I'll need just a little (a lot) of help from the putter, but let's see if he continues the trend.

TOP 10

Glass … Ryan Palmer (+650)

The member at Colonial is an annual fixture at this event where he is making start No. 19. His caddie is a former club champion as well, so if I'm going to scrape off a bit past the chalk, this is a very safe-and-sound landing area.

Home games can be distracting and his results here are uneven with three top-10 paydays from his last eight, but none since 2019. Time to bounce back and ride that T5 momentum from TPC Craig Ranch two weeks ago.

Rob … Brendon Todd (+1100)

Can't help myself. The formula works. Besides, Glass beat me to the member.

Todd is among my Sleepers and on the same short list (of six) as my outright, Patton Kizzire. It consists of guys nearest their 36th birthday and with at least some experience at Colonial. Todd hung up two top 10s in his six prior visits.

TOP 20

Glass … Stewart Cink (+340)

After a top 10 at a difficult TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm and a top 25 at a difficult Southern Hills, he's dialed in and ready to add to his 16 paydays from 18 starts at CCC. His first visit since 2018 lets me know that he's excited for the challenge as nobody makes these guys' schedules for them! Keep stripin' it, Stew!

Rob … Russell Knox (+340)

If nothing else, my emphasis on the trend will get the attention I've given it because the Scot also qualifies.

The 36-year-old is in his seventh appearance at Colonial. In his first four (2014-2019), he went T21-T24-T20-T8. He also gets an endorsement in my Draws and Fades.

Bottom line, and as Glass and I have shared over time, this market doesn't always unlock during the tournament (at least when most Americans are awake), so I'm willing to settle on a guy on whom I may need to rely for the entirety of four rounds.

ROUND 1

LEADER

Rob … Talor Gooch (+4000)

Goes off No. 10 at 8:04 a.m. CT, so he checks the first box. Only Tom Hoge, who goes off No. 1 at 12:45 p.m., has more sub-70s (40) than Gooch's 35 – all red numbers at Colonial are sub-70s – so he's in my crosshairs among the late wavers. However, with winds forecast to kick up in the afternoon, it’ll be surprising if the FRL isn’t a dew sweeper.

Gooch co-leads the PGA TOUR in eagles and par-3 scoring, but I just want a rocket out early. The odds are basically a bonus.

Glass … Kevin Na (+6000)

In a perfect world, he would be going off No. 10 but an early tee time will do! On courses he enjoys, he can get off to quick starts, like he did with 61 at Waialae early this year. He's the last man to post 61 at Colonial (R4, 2018), and also owns a first-round 62, 63 and 64 here over the years.

If he doesn't fire, I have all day to adjust and chase.

MAKE THE CUT

Glass … Ryan Palmer (-205)

He’s my Top 10 (above), so to achieve that, he’ll need this, at least that’s how Rob has told me this works. Palmer also is longest among the 40 options.

Rob … Matthew NeSmith (-240)

For this week’s 10 coins, which is the next-best possibility behind the dozen that Glass can bank, I’ll hold my breath for the guy who opened with 62 at nearby Royal Oaks en route to co-medalist honors at Monday’s Final Qualifying for the U.S. Open. He already was percolating since a T3 at Copperhead, so I’m surprised that his odds are as long as they are for this prop.

3-BALL

Glass … Justin Rose (+184) over Will Zalatoris & Kevin Kisner

The 2018 winner has added a T3 in 2020 and a T20 in 2021 to his bounty. A perfect 8-for-8 at CCC, he rolls in not having to deal with the stress of a gut-wrenching playoff loss at Southern Hills. Kisner, as has been pointed out for weeks, isn't firing on all cylinders, even on courses which fit his eye. Plus, I should be getting a decent price as Zalatoris is the public's dream.

Rob … C.T. Pan (+131) over Adam Long & Kevin Tway

I’ve turned to Pan quite a bit lately, including for the R1 3-ball, and he’s delivered regularly, so there’s no reason to quit him. He’s been that efficient. Once hoisted a T3 at Colonial, too; that was in 2019.

Long is 2-for-3 with a pair of top 20s at Colonial. He hasn’t broken par in a first round in the tournament, but he poses the more serious threat to Pan because Tway arrives in an 0-for-9 slump.

NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.