Draws and Fades: Charles Schwab Challenge

In the high-stakes action of the PGA TOUR Experts league in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, there wasn’t hesitation.

RELATED: Sleeper picks

Actually, that’s a lie.

Just like the Wells Fargo Championship a fortnight prior, the PGA Championship connected on a few haymakers. Because negative points are possible, the fantasy game most definitely causes pause when contemplating burning a start in favor of a zero that could have a net-positive effect.

Case in point, if I had only one start remaining on Jon Rahm (instead of two), I probably would’ve holstered it for Memorial and gone with only three starters in the third and final rounds at Southern Hills Country Club.

After Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler missed the cut, this was what I faced and therein existed my hesitation. Fortunately(?), I had two starts to burn and I already knew that he hadn’t committed to this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, so it was an easy call. But lo and behold, Rahm proved my point by “scoring” minus-6 points in R3. He rebounded to total 11 (including bonus points) in the final to net a positive value of five points, so I’ll take it, but I’ll never argue that a mere five points is worth a full start unless you can stretch to the conclusion of a Segment.

Of course, if I defend my title in my little league by fewer than five points, I’ll flip-flop on that promise!

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Jason Kokrak (+165 for a Top 20) … Age 37; eighth appearance. I’ve already explained in the Power Rankings how he was expected to win last year, but the defending champ hasn’t been fulfilling even higher expectations throughout 2022. He can’t be overlooked this week, so the shrewd move is to invest elsewhere and let your opponents cancel. The field is more than deep enough to subscribe to that strategy.

DRAWS

Viktor Hovland (-110 for a Top 20) … Age 24; second appearance. If Kokrak wasn’t the Wild Card, the uber-talented Norwegian would occupy that slot, but for positive reasons. Building experience at Colonial is one thing, and guys can find their game on the course – Sebastián Muñoz did last year – but it’s been a minute now since Hovland has made the kind of noise for which we’ve been accustomed. Given all the variables, this prop is perfect.

Chris Kirk (+165 for a Top 20) … Age 37; 12th appearance. The 2015 Schwab champion hasn’t missed a cut at Colonial and he’s fresh off a T5 at the PGA Championship where he was second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That’s vintage stuff from the veteran. Even his oft-inconsistent putting was on point. The setup of grasses is the same – bermuda fairways and rough; bentgrass greens – so a continuation of the rally is reasonable to anticipate.

Tony Finau (+165 for a Top 20) … Age 32; seventh appearance. The putting is turning a corner, so it’s not about overall rank as much as it is about direction. It’s also worth compartmentalizing his closing 63 at Vidanta. It was an outstanding round at an outstanding time, but he’s short on general consistency. Still, he hasn’t missed a cut at Colonial, he finished second here in 2019 and he’s logged another three top 25s, so he’s the perfect fit – finally – for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and at a time when we’re low on starts.

Webb Simpson (+160 for a Top 20) … Age 36; seventh appearance. If not for a T20 in the challenging conditions at Southern Hills last week, he’d default as a trap. He’s inside our target for Colonial where he’s finished inside the top five on two occasions, but he hadn’t done enough to eliminate residual doubt after returning from the herniated disc in his neck.

Ryan Palmer (+275 for a Top 20) … Age 45; 19th appearance. It’d be sacrilegious not to endorse him in some capacity on his home course. Yeah, you already know that he hasn’t won this tournament, but he earned over $1.4 million on the strength of four top-six finishes. He just finished T5 two weeks ago at TPC Craig Ranch, the latest evidence of how his game showing life once more.

Kevin Na (+175 for a Top 20) … Age 38; 16th appearance. Prevailed here in 2019 as a 35-year-old, and he’s been on cruise control of late. Line him up in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and heavily in DFS. He’s presenting zero reasons why he won’t remain in a groove.

Russell Knox (+400 for a Top 20) … Age 36; seventh appearance. He’s also in the bull’s-eye and he’s registered four top 25s at Colonial, so he’s an automatic for a top-30 prop and for DFSers. Further supported by sitting second on TOUR in greens hit and T4 in proximity. We’d love for him to score more but having chances to set up a hot putter is better than having a hot putter that doesn’t have chances.

Talor Gooch (age 30; fifth appearance)
Billy Horschel (age 35; fifth appearance)
Maverick McNealy (age 26; fourth appearance)
Cameron Tringale (age 34; ninth appearance)
Harold Varner III (age 31; third appearance)

Odds sourced on Tuesday, May 24th at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Mito Pereira … Age 27; first appearance. If he wasn’t a debutant, I’d extend a share or two for the benefit of the doubt, but we don’t know how Sunday’s bad beat will affect him. The conservative play, obviously, is to abstain. That means that the sharper angle is to rely on the majority to abstain and lean in fractionally in DFS.

Daniel Berger … Age 29; fifth appearance. Before you beat me to it, yes, I typically ignore negative results in majors and when the lights are brightest, but in the absence of something else to rule out that he’s feeling good again in dealing with his sore back, my hands are off his wheel.

Kevin Kisner … Age 38; ninth appearance. He hasn’t missed an edition since returning full-time to the PGA TOUR in 2014, but he hasn’t hung up another top 25 since he prevailed in 2017. It’s a stage on which he should shine every time, but he’s also short on form upon arrival. Entirely a contrarian investment.

Patrick Reed … Age 31; sixth appearance. Still scuffling (for him). Still just the one top 25 in a full-field event all season (T2, Bermuda). The Texan has a pair of top 15s at Colonial, so perhaps the drought ends now, but there’s little by which to be inspired to invest.

Erik van Rooyen … Age 32; second appearance. Hmm… Withdrew early from the Wells Fargo and Byron Nelson, and then missed the cut at the PGA Championship by seven.

James Hahn … Age 40; sixth appearance. With T9s in his last two starts (Wells Fargo, Byron Nelson), he was situated as an early possibility for the Power Rankings. However, he’s yet to cash at Colonial and hasn’t broken par since the only time he did it, with a 1-under 69 in the opening round of the 2015 edition.

Joel Dahmen (age 34; fifth appearance)
Rickie Fowler (age 33; ninth appearance)
Kramer Hickok (age 30; fifth appearance)
Charley Hoffman (age 45; 14th appearance)
Beau Hossler (age 27; fifth appearance)
Denny McCarthy (age 29; fourth appearance)
Andrew Putnam (age 33; fifth appearance)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Nick Hardy … Committed to the Korn Ferry Tour’s NV5 Invitational presented by Old National Bank. It’s not far from his home north of Chicago, so it’s as sensible a spot as any to get back after it in the wake of a wrist injury that’s sidelined him for a month. He’s 194th in the FedExCup and won’t be eligible on merit for next week’s Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, either.

NOTABLES WDs

Bryson DeChambeau … Just like last week, he can’t withdraw unless he commits. It’s the classic week-to-week approach. It’s his second consecutive early WD and he hasn’t played since missing the cut at the Masters after which he has surgery on his left wrist for a fractured hamate bone.

Harris English … This is his sixth early WD since his last start at Waialae four months ago. His surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right hip was on Feb. 14. He’ll continue to play it like DeChambeau.

Bubba Watson … Alerted his followers on Twitter on Monday that he’s going to be out “4-6 weeks” due to a torn meniscus in a knee. He didn’t specify which one. The 43-year-old lefty didn’t begin this season until a T14 at the WM Phoenix Open, so he’s logged only nine starts. He’s fully exempt through 2023-24.

Sepp Straka … Hey, ya can’t play ‘em all, but you can’t accuse him for not trying. He’s T2 on TOUR with 23 starts. (Brian Stuard has made one more.) Just qualified for the U.S. Open, too.

Charl Schwartzel … Hadn’t appeared at Colonial since 2016, anyway. He’s picked up steam of late with a T10 at the Masters and a solo eighth at the AT&T Byron Nelson, but he’s still just 152nd in the FedExCup.

RECAP – PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Jordan Spieth T34
2 Jon Rahm T48
3 Justin Thomas Win
4 Scottie Scheffler MC
5 Rory McIlroy 8th
6 Patrick Cantlay MC
7 Xander Schauffele T13
8 Matt Fitzpatrick T5
9 Hideki Matsuyama T60
10 Cameron Smith T13
11 Collin Morikawa T55
12 Max Homa T13
13 Will Zalatoris P2
14 Tiger Woods WD
15 Viktor Hovland T41
16 Joaquin Niemann T23
17 Cameron Young T3
18 Corey Conners MC
19 Brooks Koepka T55
20 Sam Burns T20
Wild Card Shane Lowry T23

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet) Result
Dean Burmester (+275 for a Top 40) MC
Sam Horsfield (+200 for a Top 40) MC
Rikuya Hoshino (+333 for a Top 40) T60
Sadom Kaewkanjana (+550 for a Top 40) MC
Bio Kim (+400 for a Top 40) MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

May 24 … Bill Haas (40); Mark Hubbard (33)
May 25 … Tom Hoge (33)
May 26 … none
May 27 … none
May 28 … none
May 29 … Seung-Yul Noh (31)
May 30 … Stephan Jaeger (33); Taylor Pendrith (31)