Pick 'Em Preview: Valspar Championship

We got ourselves a baller in the house.

PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live is just four weeks old, but Rob already has hung up a pair of top 10s. After finishing third of about 5,700 entries at The Honda Classic, he wrangled a 10th among a little over 7,000 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Yeah, only the top five pay, but it’s a good thing – for you, wink wink – that he’s ineligible for prize money.

As Rob himself declared at the outset, it’s always easier to win when a new game is launched. Not only is there a learning curve en masse, but traditionally there are fewer people against whom to compete until momentum builds. The expectation – and the plan, naturally – is for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live to grow, but only the top five cash no matter how many are entered.

In this week’s Draws and Fades, Rob walks you through his process that led to his performance at THE PLAYERS. It includes an accidental discovery of the difference in the timing of when the odds are updated on the interface (where the game is hosted) and PointsBet’s app. Capitalize on it.

The Valspar Championship has us settling into what is a more familiar construct of a field. It’s more difficult to uncover the gems, but that’s why Glass and Rob collaborate for this weekly file in addition to their regular contributions across the FANTASY page.

Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor their progress as Influencers; however, given Rob’s early success, you likely wouldn’t have to scroll or swipe for long to find him on the main leaderboard.

For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here.

WEEKLONG

Outright

Rob … Denny McCarthy (+8000)

Gosh, it feels good to have the honor again. Even better, with every passing week, I’m feeling the rhythm of the game. There’s no reason not to let a reach ride for a while. Remain patient and let the play develop.

I omitted deeper analysis on McCarthy in my preview material, but not because he doesn’t make sense. There are just some guys who get overcovered for stretches for various reasons, so when the opportunity to expand the lens is presented, I take advantage. He’s among the most accurate off the tee and his putting takes the pressure off his mediocre irons. So, in a field with considerable strength at the top, but in a tournament with established competitive balance, I prefer the strong position of opening with a non-winner who has a decently balanced bag and a little mojo.

Glass … Russell Knox (+6000)

The Jacksonville resident battled through four rounds at par or better in his backyard at TPC Sawgrass before picking up his second top 10 (T6) of 2022. Rolling into Innisbrook on three consecutive T24-or-better finishes on the track, his three best from eight previous trips, suggests he has the digits to crack the code. The Florida grass and weather shouldn't bother him and neither will be flying under the radar.

I'm moving against a massive winner's trend of succeeding early at this event but his play has been more than steady with five consecutive paydays, including a T7 at Sony on a demanding driving golf course at Waialae.

Top 10

Glass … Alex Smalley (+1100)

After seeing my dude peg Kisner at +1400 for a top 10 last week, I’m inspired to catch one of my own BIG FISH.

Smalley didn't have to fight the conditions for FIVE days last week and has been churning out results in 2022. Making the cut at Genesis, Honda and Arnold Palmer suggests he's not intimidated by big ball-striking tracks. He's in the top 75 of distance, fairways and greens in regulation, all of which plays this week. Let's ride!

Rob … Bubba Watson (+540)

Glass is right about one thing, I am a dude who nailed Kisner last week – I also love his approach for Smalley – but I was grateful that the Top 10 bets never unlocked during THE PLAYERS, at least when I was paying attention, which was quite a bit. After a second-round 74, Kisner sat T22, so I may have been persuaded to modify the selection. We’ll never know, it doesn’t matter and I don’t care!

Unlike THE PLAYERS where the depth of the field begets strong value deep in the ranks, the Valspar Championship encourages a conservative choice to benefit from a smaller sample size worthy of it.

Watson is No. 8 in my Power Rankings. His firepower alone tempers his odds, but that value is strong considering he’s finished a respective T4 and T13 in the last two editions of the tournament. He also was the victim of Harold Varner III’s crazy-long birdie conversion at the buzzer of the Saudi Invite in early February. The home-state vibes and chill atmosphere at Copperhead are bonuses.

Top 20

Rob … Vaughn Taylor (+700)

As long as this unlocks, I’m going to swing for the fence before the tournament starts, but even if it doesn’t, the strategy of not making contact doesn’t cost as much as a more aggressive decision elsewhere. Consider that the longest odds on the board for a Top 20 are just +1700. Solid, but not necessarily game-changing when all you care about is a top-five finish.

Taylor checks the boxes for converging trends, and that’s good enough for me. He finished T18 (2019) and T6 (2021) in the last two editions of the tournament, and he went for a T7 in his last start in Puerto Rico. That top 10 got him into the field this week. He’s one of my Sleepers.

Glass … Mito Pereira (+400)

Hitting it great here is paramount unless you scramble like Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed, so I'll run out fresh blood again with Pereira. His numbers off the tee and into greens stick out for me, and so does his T15 at Genesis (first time) and Honda (T30). I'll toss in a T25 at Torrey Pines just to reinforce his strength tee to green. There's no faking it at Riviera or Torrey Pines, so I'll roll the dice.

ROUND 1

3-Ball

Glass … Doc Redman (+206) over Mackenzie Hughes (+144), Kevin Streelman (+179)

I'll ride the outlier here as I try to stack coins and chase down KING BOLTON I (who edits this???) this week. Redman quietly snuck in T26 at TPC Sawgrass as he raked tee to green, as usual. At only 24, he won't need as much recovery time for this week.

Rob … David Lipsky (+194)

Leader

Rob … Patton Kizzire (+10000)

When I joined Glass on his radio show on the Thursday afternoon of THE PLAYERS, I told him that he knew that I wasn’t going to let him bask for long after he had connected with Rory McIlroy as the R1 leader at Bay Hill the previous week. Tommy Fleetwood answered at TPC Sawgrass, and at four times the kickback. Boom.

Quite simply, the strategy paid off. While Fleetwood was in the more fortunate wave, the plan all along was to toss out a guy who went out early. What’s more, and coincidentally, he had been a R1 leader at THE PLAYERS before.

As I also explained and promised last week, my strategy henceforth will be to grab a guy in the early wave and remain fluid throughout the day. At Copperhead, I want my choice to navigate The Snake Pit mid-round and not at the end. Holes 16, 17 and 18 always average over par, but the par-5 first hole is one of the easiest on the entire PGA TOUR. Therefore, I want him to pounce on it not only after The Snake Pit but once he’s warm, so in addition to focusing only on the early wavers, I care only about guys starting on No. 10.

Kizzire goes off 10 at 8:46 a.m. ET. He’s seventh on TOUR in first-round scoring average (68.15) and tops among the commitments. He’s opened 12 of his 13 starts this season with red numbers. His lowest score among 14 rounds at Copperhead is a 5-under 66 in the opening round of the tournament last year.

Glass … Keegan Bradley (+5000)

I rode the roller coaster of self-inflicted wounds last week with the big-boy ball-striker at TPC Sawgrass. My pre-tournament OUTRIGHT WINNER (at +8000) found himself one shot off the lead on the back nine, but I had already abandoned ship. I'M WEAK, I KNOW. A fantastic round turned to dust late on MONDAY but his form was never in question. He's one of my Horses for Courses this week.

Rob’s man-crush – well, ONE of them – opened here last year with 65, tied the 36-hole record and played from the final group on Sunday. There are many, many worse plays than this on the board this week!

Make the Cut

Glass … Russell Knox (-225)

For reasons stated above, this makes sense. His game thrives tee to green and that's what is required this week. When in doubt, I prefer riding the heat.

Rob … Alex Noren (-200)

Kevin Kisner (-180) is the only option with longer odds, but the street loves the Swede, so I might as well hop on the bandwagon. Noren finished T21 in his only appearance here last year. He’s also missed only two cuts in his last 12 starts in tournaments worldwide with a cut. He’s cashed in five straight upon arrival, two of which for a top 10.