Sleeper Picks: U.S. Open Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Aaron Rai (+10500) ... It seems absurd that the winner of the last major would qualify as a Sleeper for the next one, but the PGA champion is tied for 39th-shortest in this market for the U.S. Open. So, yeah, he qualifies. And we just did this as it concerns why he’s such an outstanding fit on a course that demands sublime ball-striking and boasts perched greens that are unfamiliar to most. It’s exactly the formula in which he should thrive. When he prevailed at Aronimink Golf Club, we also were treated to the value and impact of his comportment, patience and wisdom as it concerns accepting the exam. All of it helps define the 31-year-old with worldwide success. Should he go back-to-back, he’d become the first to win both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open in the same calendar year since, you guessed it, Brooks Koepka in 2018. Back then, the PGA Championship anchored the majors in August, so Koepka set the table for his achievement with victory at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club that June.

Top 5

Sepp Straka (+2000) ... While he’s already connected for a pair of top fives this season, which doesn’t hurt, this is primarily about the broad strength of his tee-to-green game for a course where it can stand out relative to others. Because he favors accuracy over distance off the tee, he’ll control placement in the generous fairways. With veteran course management, that will position him to attack with even more confidence to score, or at least deflect bogeys. Currently leading the PGA TOUR in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards. Also slots inside the top 20 in all five 25-yard ranges from 150-275 yards, so no matter his distance on approach, he’ll have it covered without a hole in the bag. If there’s a rub, it’s that his career record in the majors is lackluster, with only three top 20s in 20 outings, but that only lifts his value for our cause.

Top 10

Ryo Hisatsune (+1500) ... Other than Hideki Matsuyama four times, there hasn’t been another top 10 by a Japanese-born golfer at the U.S. Open since Shigeki Maruyama in 2004. The three-time PGA TOUR winner placed T4 that year when, coincidentally, Shinnecock Hills hosted. Hisatsune is just 23 years of age, but he’s second among all Japanese in the Official World Golf Ranking at 62nd (Matsuyama is 24th). He’s already in his third season as a TOUR member as he makes his U.S. Open debut ranked 40th in the FedExCup with a T2 among four top 10s on the season and 16 straight paydays upon arrival. Currently 25th in total driving, 10th in greens hit and 28th in proximity, he’s benefited as a ball-striker targeting the largely unfamiliar greens (despite three dozen in the field having competed here eight years ago). So, hop aboard in pursuit of a hefty kickback and the potential for history to repeat itself.

Top 20

Jackson Suber (+570) ... Might as well strike while his irons are hot. In his last four starts, he’s risen from just above TOUR average in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green to 13th overall. That efficiency yielded a pair of fourth-place finishes and a T19 in the stretch. En route to last week’s T4 at the RBC Canadian Open where he was the outright leader after three rounds, he led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green. Also ranked third in greens hit and fourth in proximity, both aligning with his season ranks of ninth and third, respectively. So, the trip north served not only as an opportunity to stay sharp and pile up some FedExCup points, it also was a successful tuneup for his second appearance in the U.S. Open (73rd, 2024), not that he needed it.

Top 30

Matti Schmid (+485) ... This is juicy for a guy who just finished T4 at a challenging Aronimink at the PGA Championship a month ago, so he jumps off the screen among others in his vicinity in this market. Now that the German has treated himself to a taste of a leaderboard appearance in a major, you know that he wants to go back for seconds. What’s a little wild is that the spike was a deviation from a customary groove that he’s patterned often enough for us to have confidence to piggyback. So, as he enjoys what life is like having been in the hunt despite off-weeks flanking the career-best finish in a major, we also must adapt.

Top 40

Dylan Wu (+520) ... With a cut of low 60 and ties after two rounds, a maximum of two-thirds of those who survive will pay in this market. And with Shinnecock Hills presenting as the most indiscriminate of tests, it’s worth leaning into his fit with a bonus. The Q-School grad is just 6-for-13 on the season with a pair of early top 40s, so form is not a weapon. However, his strength of hitting greens in regulation plays way up this week, and not only is he 14th in GIR, but he’s also 22nd in proximity. The kicker is that he’s appeared in only two majors previously, but both were U.S. Opens in which he finished T31 (2021) and T32 (2023).

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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