NOTE: Sleeper Picks first appeared in "The Early Card" newsletter on Tuesday. To get these before everyone else, subscribe and get them straight to your inbox one day ahead. These picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4900) … Because of his cachet and his world ranking (24th), the Brit presents more as a throwback to my Power Rankings Wild Cards of yesteryear than a Sleeper, but there are 17 golfers who are shorter on the board for the WM Phoenix Open and my Power Rankings proper goes only 15 deep, so here we are. One of the nuggets I saved for this fully formed version of Sleepers is that all of the last 10 winners at TPC Scottsdale had at least one prior start here in the books before capturing victory. This is his fifth. His record includes a T10 in his debut in 2022 and a T15 in 2024. Last year’s missed cut occurred during an extended funk, but he snapped out of it by May and finished with nine top 10s among 13 top 25s worldwide, including a season-ending victory at the DP World Tour Championship. It’s likely going to take a seasoned veteran who is in form and who has tasted some success at TPC Scottsdale to get past the No. 1 in everything, Scottie Scheffler, and these odds are reason enough to diversify your card.

Top 5

Matt McCarty (+1000) ... It took a while for the lefty to find some traction as he navigated the PGA TOUR in earnest for the first time a year ago, but it’s nice to have the cushion of a couple of seasons of fully exempt status for trial and error. He didn’t squander the opportunity to play often and learn, all the while picking up momentum until wrapping 2025 with a trio of top 10s in five starts worldwide, including a T3 in his title defense at the Bank of Utah Championship. He’s wasted no time in extending the form into the new year with a T2 at The American Express and a T18 at the Farmers Insurance Open, both sites at which he missed the cut his first time through a year ago. He did as well as a first-timer at TPC Scottsdale, but with two top fives in his last five starts, he comes with firepower to pay this off.

Top 10

Haotong Li (+550) ... The first-time PGA TOUR member from China has availed himself immediately with a 3-for-3 slate that includes a T8 at PGA WEST and a T11 at Torrey Pines the last two weeks. They piggyback a pair of top 10s worldwide to end 2025. Because of the early success this season, it’s not surprising that he’s among the leaders in numerous metrics from tee to green, so even below-average putting isn’t slowing him down much. Despite four wins across 10 years, he endured unbelievably long stretches without making any noise. Sidelined by injury at times like many of his peers, the troughs of his career help accentuate the kind of crest that he’s riding right now, so it matters not that he’s a debutant at TPC Scottsdale.

Top 20

S.H. Kim (+385) … While the end of Xander Schauffele’s consecutive cuts-made streak garnered headlines, it was just as notable to bettors that Kim’s run of top 20s worldwide also ended last week. His solo 63rd at Torrey Pines was his first result outside that bubble in eight events. He was my Sleeper in each of his first three starts of 2026, so he netted $950 in this market during that stretch. It means that you’re still on house money if you continue to wager $100. Now, just because he didn’t deliver on the longest and one of the most difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR, it doesn’t mean it’s time to abandon him. He’s still the same guy who led the Korn Ferry Tour in the all-around ranking in 2025 and slotted second in scoring. He also has one start at TPC Scottsdale under his belt, a steady T28 in 2024.

Top 30

Adam Schenk (+475) … Fool me once, good on you. Fool me twice, bad on me. Fool me a third time? Well, that lesson varies, but if you learned anything from “Top Gun: Maverick,” don’t think, just do. And if that’s a spoiler alert, I’m doing you a favor. Despite his ups and downs, he hung a top 25 in each of the last three editions of the WM Phoenix Open, and his scoring average in his last eight rounds here was 68.625, so reserve a unit for the 34-year-old and this finish. And while he’s not necessarily a go-to when trends appear to be converging, it doesn’t hurt a bit that he’s fresh off a personal-best T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open, where, that’s right, he hung a top 25 in each of its previous three editions as well. So, if you’re feeling frisky for a top 20, he was +830 in that market at last check.

Top 40

Zach Bauchou (+300) … The 30-year-old has needed more time to reach the big leagues than many of his fellow Cowboys who graduated from the prestigious golf program at Oklahoma State University. PGA TOUR winners Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland and Austin Eckroat were all teammates during his tenure in Stillwater, as were fellow PGA TOUR members Sam Stevens and Kris Ventura. Among this year’s class of 22 rookies with Bauchou is yet another former teammate, Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson. Bauchou is one of just three rookies who cashed in each of the first three tournaments, and his T13 at The American Express is tied for the best among all rookies in the young season. So, this is adjusting the expectation to target triple the kickback on a guy with the proper pedigree and a perfect record who is approaching his competitive prime.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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