Sleeper Picks: RBC Heritage

Given the star power in the field this week at the RBC Heritage, some of the betting odds are understandably low. It was only a year ago, after all, that Scottie Scheffler drove a couple of hours south with a green jacket in tow and added a tartan jacket to his collection. He’s a clear betting favorite this week, followed by names we all know and recognize.

But even in a limited-field event, where 72 players are assured of playing all four rounds at Harbour Town Golf Links, there’s still reason to scroll a bit down the odds board. Whether you’re looking at outright options or finish position markets, here’s a guide to some potential value among the players flying below the radar this week in South Carolina:

Outright

Daniel Berger (+5000)

The ascent continues as Berger looks to return to his form from a few years ago. After spiking a runner-up finish at TPC Scottsdale seemingly out of nowhere, he hasn’t finished worse than T30 since. That includes a T21 finish last week at the Masters, his first return to Augusta National in three years, and now he turns his attention to a course where he has finished T21 or better in each of his last three trips. That stretch includes a T3 finish in 2020, and importantly they all came before the Heritage became a limited-field event. His all-time scoring average is in the 60s for each of the four rounds, indicating that he should get off to a solid start and only improve from there. Berger has won before at both Pebble Beach and Colonial, two of the coziest tracks on TOUR.

Bud Cauley (+8000)

It’s tough to bank on a veteran getting his first TOUR win in a Signature Event, but this is an appetizing price for one of the biggest overachievers of the first quarter of 2025. Cauley started the year with conditional status, but he has finished T6 or better in each of his last three starts. That run includes a T6 at THE PLAYERS on another Pete Dye design, and Cauley is now 15th on TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Approach. The highlights at Harbour Town have been few and far between, but he did open with 63 here in 2017 en route to a T9 finish.

Top 5

Aaron Rai (+600)

Rai won last year at Sedgefield Country Club, another of the TOUR’s tighter venues, and he put together a run of three straight top-15 finishes this spring before a T27 result last week in his Masters debut. The Englishman is 27th this season on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and opened with a 63 here last year before fading over the weekend.

Si Woo Kim (+900)

Kim was one of the highest-ranked players not in the field last week for the Masters, a tournament he had not missed since 2016. He’s a little more rested as a result, but this is a feast-or-famine play on a guy who has won at both Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass. Kim lost a playoff here in 2017 but has just one top-30 finish since, a T18 result last year amid a limited field. Dialing it back to a top-10 target at +410 might be more prudent, but I’ll push for a better result with a player who sometimes flashes a higher-than-expected ceiling.

Top 10

J.T. Poston (+410)

Poston has been a staple on the Harbour Town leaderboards, finishing T8 or better four times in the last six years. Those efforts included five rounds of 66 or better, highlighted by an opening-round 63 last year. The North Carolina native feels right at home in the Low Country, and Poston boasts the mix of solid iron play and strong scrambling that can often yield results along the Calibogue Sound. And yes, like Rai and Kim, he’s won before at Sedgefield – if you’re leaning in on a correlated trend, might as well lean all the way, right?

Max Homa (+490)

How much can we read into a single result? Homa made his first cut since July last week, but he built upon that (incremental) progress by finishing T12 at Augusta National and earning a return invite to next year’s Masters. Homa’s drop in form has been well-documented, and he’s still dealing with a new caddie dynamic after splitting with longtime looper Joe Greiner. But Homa is an emotional player, and if he begins to turn around his game on a more consistent basis, solid results could come in bunches.

Top 20

Matt Fitzpatrick (+175)

Fitzpatrick’s fall over the last year may rival Homa’s, as he teed off in this event ranked 12th in the world last year and returns to Hilton Head ranked 75th. But he won here just two years ago, and no one can match his (well-documented) enthusiasm for Harbour Town, where he vacationed as a kid. He even had a head cover featuring the iconic lighthouse when he first arrived on TOUR. Fitzpatrick made the cut at the Masters and this is a place where he shouldn’t be underestimated, as he’ll likely keep his head in the game throughout the weekend regardless of leaderboard position – opening the options for potentially cashing a top-20 ticket among 72 players.

Matt Kuchar (+290)

Turn back the clock! Kuchar memorably won this event in 2014, one of seven top-10 finishes he has in 20 career starts at Harbour Town. Kuchar needed a sponsor exemption to gain entry into this week’s limited field, but he doesn’t have to look too far back in the rear-view mirror to find Heritage success. He was T3 here in 2022 and T19 two years ago in his most recent appearance. He has made the cut in five of six starts this season, including a T18 finish in San Antonio just two weeks ago.

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