Sleeper Picks: THE PLAYERS Championship

The PGA TOUR’s flagship event has arrived and while the focus will of course be on the chalk at the top of the odds boards, TPC Sawgrass has never been afraid to throw up an unexpected winner for THE PLAYERS Championship.

Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy might be champions, but so too were a young Si Woo Kim, a resurgent Webb Simpson and an unknown Craig Perks.

Pete Dye’s course demands general good play in every facet of the game – showing little to no weakness. So this week’s sleepers include players who are showing prowess across the board.

Outright

Aaron Rai +7000 … There has been some correlation between those who play well at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) and TPC Sawgrass in the past. When you combine this, and the fact Rai has been a pretty consistent performer on TOUR in recent times, you get a true sleeper. The Englishman ranks 25th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total this season (and was sixth last season) and is eighth in Driving Accuracy. Was T11 at Bay Hill last week and T4 in Mexico prior to that.

Note: The player I slot in the outright sleeper category is someone I’d also advocate betting across any or all of the Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, Top 40 or Make Cut markets.

Top 5

Daniel Berger (including ties) +900 … Back to the well again! I have to ride this four-time TOUR winner until he stops knocking on the door. Contended at the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational and then T25 and T15 so far in Florida. Top 5 is aggressive, but believe me, if you ask him, he’d say it’s not aggressive enough. Seriously confident in his own ability. Top 15 on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total. Top 13 in last two trips to TPC Sawgrass.

Top 10

Karl Vilips (including ties) +900 … Vilips immediately showed why Tiger Woods and Sun Day Red signed the young Australian up to an apparel deal with his victory in the Puerto Rico Open. You may have missed it given the Signature Event – Arnold Palmer Invitational – was going on as well, but Vilips not only won but also did so in impressive fashion at 26-under. After a bogey on the 12th hole Sunday, he birdied four of his last six to shoot 64 and win by three. Contending at THE PLAYERS is clearly another beast but given he only just got in, he’s playing with house money.

Top 20

Alex Smalley (including ties) +360 … You get these odds for Smalley because he’s only been to Sawgrass twice for a T65 on debut and a missed cut last season. But he’s ranked third on the PGA TOUR this season in SG: Total, finishing inside the top 20 in four of his six events (and T21 in one of them!). This is no doubt a step up in class this week, but current form is always worth riding.

Top 40

Nicolai Højgaard +175 … A year ago Højgaard got a crash course in how things can go wrong quickly at TPC Sawgrass offsetting eight birdies with 11 bogeys and a double bogey in his two rounds before going home early. But since then he’s been a Ryder Cupper and has started 2025 in match better fashion. The fact that he is ranked fifth in SG: Total is enough for me to give him a chance at a Top 40 finish at plus money – especially since his three starts this season have all been inside that mark, including a top 10 in Mexico.

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