Benny and the Bets: Betting Scottie Scheffler pre-tournament at THE PLAYERS Championship is sucker move

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – A year ago on this page, I apologized to Scottie Scheffler for doubting him, and I may just have to do the same come Sunday at TPC Sawgrass. But betting on the FedExCup champion at +400 pre-tournament for THE PLAYERS Championship is, frankly, a sucker bet.

We all know Scheffler is the clear world No. 1 at the moment and the deserving favorite at TPC Sawgrass this week, having been the first player to win the tournament back-to-back last year. But even then, coming off a great win the week prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, he was +550.

THE PLAYERS is the hardest tournament to handicap of the year. Pete Dye’s masterpiece doesn’t lend itself to bombers or putters or any huge specific type of player like some weeks on TOUR. If anything, you can lean to ball-strikers, but that’s the catch all most weeks.

Yes, Scheffler won multiple times last year at +400 or better, including the Masters, but I argue winning at TPC Sawgrass is harder to replicate year-to-year than Augusta National, especially once you’ve already done it. At Augusta, you can contend with a part of your game a little off as long as the rest lifts it up. At TPC Sawgrass, you need every aspect of your game to fire.

“You can't fake it around this place. I think there's a lot of genius in the way the golf course is designed. There is some volatility in terms of the hazards. That provides a lot of volatility for how the golf course can play, especially in high winds,” Scheffler said.

“It calls for different shots on each hole. You have to work the ball both ways. You have to play shots. If there are no conditions, you can play a little bit of robot golf, but at the end of the day, I think you got to show up, play shots, do things differently. It doesn't suit one type of player. I think some of the results you see here over time for guys where it's not a horses-for-courses-type place, it's just the guys that are playing the best are going to be on the leaderboard on Sunday. That's plain and simple.”

Now let me be clear: I’m not saying to ignore Scheffler altogether this week. But I am saying you need to ride the rollercoaster of live odds and in-play betting markets if you want to wager on him.

Let’s look at last year: Scheffler’s peak odds in Round 1 hit +800. In Round 2 he got as high as +700. In Round 3, as doubt about his back injury continued and he slid further behind the likes of Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark, he was out to +3500 at one point and was back to +1200 at end of day, five shots back. Even in Round 4, he hit +2200 at one point before charging home to win.

So, if you like Scheffler, set your number for Round 1 or Round 2 and pounce at that point. If he comes out firing and blitzes the field, you might miss the boat. But at +400, it’s not a big boat, anyway. Of course, for Scheffler to hit +800 or so in Round 1 he will need to find himself in arrears of the lead.

But with an afternoon tee time at 1:29 p.m. ET he will naturally be well behind the morning wave leaders, and if he starts with a loose bogey or isn’t at his best when he starts, then opportunity can knock.

In three of his four events this season since coming back from his hand injury, Scheffler has made a bogey before a birdie and his odds have lengthened. It has given bettors a chance to jump on with a little more juice. Ultimately, those “better” bets have still been unsuccessful in the outright markets, but he’s still been a chance of cashing. Three top-11s on the board, and even his T25 at the WM Phoenix Open, saw him withing two of the lead early Sunday.

Last year, he bogeyed the opening hole of the tournament. The year before he made nine straight pars to start. So again, pre-tournament is not the opportune time to bet Scheffler.

But if we are not taking him, where could your focus go? My first instinct is to look at players who have already won this year as the last three years, THE PLAYERS winner (Scheffler twice and Cam Smith) had already won before getting the trophy here. Current form has been a decent trend since the return to March, which is another reason many people are talking up Ludvig Åberg and Sepp Straka this week.

But for me, the most likely of those players to salute on Sunday is Hideki Matsuyama (+3300). He won The Sentry in January and has been reasonably consistent since, including three top 25s in a row coming in. An unofficial course record in the COVID-19 cancelled year (2020) plus a fifth and T6 in his last two starts at TPC Sawgrass give me hope for this ball-striker who at his best, can be Scheffler like.

Outside the winners on TOUR in 2025, I’m prepared to give former PLAYERS champ Justin Thomas (+2200) one more look. I said in the pre-season Thomas would have a win after THE PLAYERS … so this is my last chance to be right. He has shown glimpses of great without putting four rounds together. He will need to lift to contend.

In looking at data, I only focus on those since the move back to March in 2019 and I throw out 2022 which had a severe weather bias. Of course we lost 2020 to COVID-19. That leaves McIlroy’s (2019), Thomas in 2021 and Scheffler’s two wins.

All three led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in their wins and they all ranked inside the top 10 in both SG: Off-The-Tee and SG: Approach with McIlroy second and sixth, Thomas 10th and fifth and Scheffler fifth and fourth in 2023 and first and seventh in 2024.

McIlroy was fifth in Driving Distance, Thomas 18th, Scheffler fifth and then 14th. McIlroy was third in Greens in Regulation, Thomas 17th, Scheffler led the field in 2023 and seventh in 2024.

McIlroy played the par-5sin 9-under during his win, Thomas a field-leading 14 under and Scheffler was 11 under on the longer holes in 2023 and 10 under last year.

There was a little bit of leeway allowed around, and on, the greens, but all three champions still had to put forth decent efforts in this area. McIlroy was 29th in SG: Around-the-Green, Thomas was 11th and Scheffler an impressive third the first tie and sixth on take two. McIlroy ranked 47th in SG: Putting, Thomas was 42nd, and Scheffler 48th and 37th on the way to winning.

In other words, the only place to have a little bit of leeway is on and around the greens. With the need to be able have it all going well, the lean for me is to keep it simple and look at Strokes Gained: Total.

So with that in mind don’t discount the top 14 or so in this metric. That being Collin Morikawa, McIlroy, Alex Smalley, Scheffler, Nicolai Højgaard, Russell Henley, Michael Kim, Matsuyama, Straka, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Thomas and Jacob Bridgeman.

A few of these guys can be found in Sleeper Picks this week.

Best of luck with your picks this week… hopefully I won’t be apologizing for mine this year.