Signature Scroll: Is Scottie Scheffler about to surge?
3 Min Read

Golf is Hard | RBC Heritage
Written by Paul Hodowanic
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Back at it after a busy Masters week! That’s the case for 16 of the top 20 in the world as well at RBC Heritage. Let’s preview it …
Scheffler’s spring surge
If you’re anything like me, you probably spent Monday after the Masters surfing through the mountains of archival footage readily available on the tournament’s website, longingly trying to squeeze in just a little bit more Augusta National viewing before the necessary return to the real world.
Wait, you didn’t? Just me? Hmm. Well, let me share with you the prevailing thought that emerged after going through way too many golf shots.
Scottie Scheffler should have won the Masters.
If McIlroy won with his B game – a popular sentiment in the aftermath of his victory – Scheffler was a runner-up with his C+ stuff. The world No. 1 lost to McIlroy by one shot, and going through all of Scheffler’s 72 holes was a painful game of what could have been. I can only imagine that’s how Scheffler feels, too.
There were close calls in the final round. Like his birdie putt on the 17th, which looked like it should drop in every reality except the one Scheffler lived. He missed a 5-foot birdie putt on the second and an 11-footer for birdie on No. 13, too. But he also had his fair share of luck, somehow making birdie on the 15th after a bad punch shot. He also poured in several improbable par saves. The toughest watch was actually Scheffler’s second round, a confusing 2-over 74 in the benign Friday morning conditions. He bogeyed both par 5s on his second nine, hitting it in Rae’s Creek on the 13th and into the pond behind the 15th. It was nothing like the Scheffler we have seen recently, even during his slight dip in play. That’s the round he will regret, the one that separated him and McIlroy by too great a length to recover from.
It’s an event, given his statistical performance, that he should have won.
Scheffler gained 1.93 shots on approach per round at this year’s Masters, according to Data Golf. Over the last 36 months, Scheffler has won 10 of 13 events when gaining 1.75 shots or more per round on approach.
It also made me realize Scheffler might be ready for another surge. Caught up in the discourse of Scheffler’s “slow” start to 2026, a convenient omission has been made. Scheffler might have had the best year of his career in 2025, winning two majors, fixing his putting and winning his fourth Player of the Year award. You know what he had not done at this point on the calendar a year ago? Win.
Scheffler did that in his first start of the year at The American Express. And the upcoming slate of events looks plenty inviting. He won the RBC Heritage in 2024 and won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last year, the site of this year’s Truist Championship. He is defending the aforementioned PGA Championship and The Open later this summer.
Besides the familiarity, what gives me confidence? His approach performance at the Masters was far and away his best of the year. Why is that important? It’s weirdly been the worst part of his game this season, despite being his superpower for four years. Here’s where he ranks in the major Strokes Gained categories this year.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 11th
- SG: Tee-to-Green: sixth
- SG: Approach: 81st
- SG: Around-the-Green: third
- SG: Putting: 16th
Scheffler was first in the Masters field from tee-to-green and had a poor putting week, 30th out of the 54 players who made the cut. It’s a testament to how far he’s come on the greens that we can expect positive regression quickly. That should also come to his approach play – as it did at Augusta National. And when it aligns together, as it seems it might very soon, watch out. Scheffler is ready to surge.
Playing through
- 🤔 Wonder what the pros do to recover from the "mental toll" of the Masters? Max Homa has some answers ...
- 🚧 Davis Love III led a restoration of Harbour Town Golf Links over the last year. I documented every tweak, whether tiny or huge …
- ✅ Who do our experts have this week? Spoiler: Scottie Scheffler isn’t the most popular selection ...
- ❓ What are the biggest questions still lingering after the Masters? I dove into that as well …
Risers and fallers
- Jason Day 📈 – T12-T6 in last two starts. That came after missing back-to-back cuts in Signature Events, a hard thing to do these days. Day is doing a lot of heavy lifting on and around the greens. He’s 132nd in approach this season.
- Justin Thomas 📉 – He’s only played four times as injury delayed his start. Those results are spotty: cut-T8-T30-T41. This should be a week he gets back on track as a defending champion. But if he doesn’t …
- Sam Burns 📈 – Disappointed to only finish T7 at the Masters, but his Saturday round will stick with me for a while. He drove the ball fantastically and played bogey-free to put himself in the conversation for Sunday. Still needs to work on closing out a big one.
- Rickie Fowler 📉 – He had a real chance to qualify for the Masters if he continued his strong form. Instead, he skipped the Valspar Championship and missed the cut at both Texas events. A disappointing halt to a promising start.
Parting shots
- ⛳ Tony Finau has a new caddie at RBC Heritage, and it’s a name many will recognize. John Ellis is on the bag this week. He’s the longtime caddie of Wyndham Clark. The two parted ways recently. The Finau-Ellis pairing isn’t necessarily permanent. Finau told us he’s doing a “vibe check” with Ellis this week.
- 🤕 Collin Morikawa is on track to play, which was not a certainty even after his top-10 finish at the Masters. Morikawa had been noncommittal during Augusta whether he would continue to fight through the mental aftereffects of his back injury, or try to take some time off to find a solution and avoid any bad habits that could overtake his swing long term.
- 🔟 Future PGA TOUR player Jackson Koivun won the 10th college event of his career earlier this week. It’s a rare list of players who have done that, including Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm and Phil Mickelson. Koivun will be eligible to take up membership after the NCAA Championships, otherwise known as RBC Canadian Open week.
- ☝Barring a last-minute withdrawal, Brooks Koepka will miss the RBC Heritage by one spot, but that he’s in the conversation is important nonetheless. Ineligible for sponsor exemptions, Koepka’s only way to Signature Event status is to play his way in. He ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach. If he keeps that up, it’s only a matter of time.




