It’s the final week before the Masters Tournament, and for many in the field, the only path to Augusta runs through San Antonio. A win at the Valero Texas Open punches the final ticket. In fact, three of the last six Valero winners qualified for the Masters with a victory in this event.

Because of its place on the schedule, bettors often shy away from the top of the board. The assumption is that players who have already qualified for Augusta may have one eye on next week. The results, at least on the surface, give that theory some life.

Since 2010, only three winners have been priced at +2500 or shorter. The average winning odds over the last 15 years sit at +9600. Jordan Spieth (+2050) and Corey Conners are the only golfers in the last five years to win at +2500 or lower, and notably, both were already qualified for the Masters.

That’s where things get interesting. Three of the last five champions were already in the Masters field before winning in San Antonio. So, while the narrative of looking ahead is easy to buy into, it shouldn’t automatically push you off the top of the board. If a player is in the field, the priority doesn’t change. It’s still about winning the golf tournament.

To find value this week, start by understanding TPC San Antonio.

Like most TPC courses, this is a place to target great ball strikers. The Oaks Course, a 7,438-yard par 72 designed by Greg Norman with input from Sergio Garcia, demands accuracy off the tee, skillful iron play, and a strong ability to avoid bogeys.

The numbers support that. Since 2015, every winner except J.J. Spaun (27th) in 2022 has finished the week inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Seven of the last 10 winners have ranked inside the top five in that category.

Here are the top-ranked golfers in SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds (data via Betspertsgolf):

1. Si Woo Kim
2. Austin Smotherman
3. Keith Mitchell
4. Ryo Histatune
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Thorbjorn Olesen

Si Woo Kim (+2150) tops the list, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. He’s one of the best ball strikers on TOUR and has put together a strong start to the season. He’s been in contention multiple times, but the putter has held him back. In the three events where he finished T6 or better, he lost strokes putting in two of them.

That makes him a bit tricky to trust at this number, as the ball striking is there, but the price doesn’t quite account for the lack of success he’s had on the greens.

Another key element at TPC San Antonio is driving accuracy. The tree-lined fairways place a premium on finding the short grass, especially compared to what players saw last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. The rough isn’t overly penal, but it’s not short either. The bigger issue is the potential for obstructed approach shots when playing from the rough. If golfers are not consistently in position off the tee, it becomes difficult quickly. That is why driving accuracy plays such a significant role in identifying success this week.

Here are the top-ranked golfers in driving accuracy:

1. Joel Dahmen
2. Andrew Putnam
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Russell Henley
5. Lucas Glover
6. Emiliano Grillo

Russell Henley (+1800) is one of the names on this list that should draw plenty of attention. He’s going to play from the fairway more often than most of his peers, and when he does, he’s more than capable of rolling in putts with the best of them. The question, as always, comes down to the irons. If he can string together four consistent rounds with his approach play, he’ll be right there on Sunday.

What separates Henley from the other players priced shorter than +2000 is his floor. He’s easily the least volatile of the group, and his consistency is not overlooked. That’s what makes his placement price, especially his top 20, so appealing.

Russell Henley Top 20 (-125) is a bet I’m willing to make. He’s finished outside the top 20 just once in six starts this season, and that came at the Genesis Invitational, where he lost strokes tee to green. That marked the first time he had lost strokes tee-to-green since the 2025 PGA Championship, snapping a stretch of 12 straight events in which he gained strokes in that category. Since then, he’s bounced back with a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship, gaining 3.65 and 4.97 strokes tee to green, respectively.

One interesting angle that popped up while breaking down TPC San Antonio is the number of holes that favor tee shots moving from right to left. Roughly 10 of the non-par-3 holes are set up that way, whether through doglegs, forced landing areas, or preferred angles into greens. It may not be everything, but it’s at least notable that the last two winners here have been left-handed.

It’s a small detail, but one worth factoring in when narrowing down the top of the board alongside the ball striking and accuracy metrics.

Top 10 golfers who hit from right to left:

1. Michael Kim
2. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
3. Michael Thorbjornsen
4. Chris Kirk
5. Thorbjorn Olesen
6. Doug Ghim
7. Lucas Glover
8. Brandt Snedeker
9. Alex Smalley
10. Garrick Higgo

Best value on the board

Sudarshan Yellamaraju to win +6100 | Top 10 +445 | Top 40 -112

It’s time to get on the Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+6100) bandwagon, because once the bus leaves the station, there won’t be any room aboard. What he’s done over the past month has been nothing short of impressive. He finished T17 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, followed it with a T5 at THE PLAYERS, and backed it up with a T6 at Texas Children's. In each of those starts, he gained at least 3.5 strokes tee to green. On top of that, he’s gained strokes putting in all three, including a +5.5 performance on the greens at THE PLAYERS.

With younger players, there’s always the concern of when the run cools off. Whether it’s fatigue or just natural regression, it happens. That said, the week off after THE PLAYERS could prove to be a key reset, both mentally and physically, as he looks to make a push for a win and a trip to Augusta.

So, can he actually get it done this week? That’s the tough part. It’s hard to say with full confidence, but his statistical profile suggests he’s more live than the number indicates.

He’s not the most accurate driver in the field, but he’s still gained the 11th-most strokes off the tee over the last 24 rounds. He ranks inside the top 10 in both driving distance and total strokes gained, and he’s been especially sharp from 125 yards and in. Add in the fact that he’s top 10 in putts made from beyond 15 feet, and you’re looking at a golfer who has the tools to contend this week.

It all lines up for this course. He’s comfortable working the ball right to left, which should help with positioning off the tee, given the setup at TPC San Antonio. At this price, there’s simply too much value in the placement markets to ignore. The outright is worth a look, but the top 40 (including ties) will carry my biggest exposure this week.