PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — There is a connection to THE PLAYERS Championship that is cultivated in only a few places. Among the biggest events in golf – THE PLAYERS and the majors – only TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National are annual stops.

There’s a return to the familiar that builds momentum. History repeats itself. Iconic moments play out on the same holes, the stakes already ingrained into everyone’s minds. It’s also how trends emerge. There are more than a few worth monitoring this week at TPC Sawgrass. Some are specific to THE PLAYERS and TPC Sawgrass. Others are trends that have developed this season that players may look to continue or thwart during the biggest week of the year (to date).

So ahead of this year’s THE PLAYERS Championship, here are five trends to track.

Elite winners

Since THE PLAYERS Championship moved to March in 2019, it has eliminated one of the tournament’s most prominent storylines: that it’s ripe for fluky winners, or that anyone can win. Here’s who has won it since the calendar change: Rory McIlroy (twice), Scottie Scheffler (twice), Justin Thomas and Cameron Smith. In other words, the elite of the elite.

What’s the reasoning? The move from May to March has fundamentally changed the test. In May, the tournament was often played in heavy heat and on a setup that negated distance. Players frequently hit irons off the tee, which didn’t allow the best drivers to separate; instead, the tournament often came down to who got hot on the greens. March is also a much windier month, which puts an added premium on iron play. The result is a much sterner tee-to-green test, which often favors the best players. The best two golfers of the last three years have been McIlroy and Scheffler. So it’s no surprise that those two have combined to win the last three THE PLAYERS.

As you’re looking at who will win this year? Don’t get caught chasing the Cinderella story. It’s hard to pull off this time of year at TPC Sawgrass.

Scheffler’s iron play

Scheffler’s superpower is his iron play. Yet so far in 2026, it’s the worst part of his game. Worst is relative, of course. Scheffler is still gaining strokes, but it’s marginal. He ranks 88th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach. That’s alarming since he finished No. 1 in each of the last three seasons. The best part of his game is now average. He’s been able to play quite well despite the dip, among the top-five drivers this season and inside the top 10 in short game. That’s kept the top results flowing, but how long can that continue without the iron play catching up?

Should you be concerned? Long term, no. It will take a lot more than a few poor weeks to erase the reputation he built over the last three years. But could it affect his ability to contend this week at THE PLAYERS? That’s in play. In this stretch, he hasn’t even had peak moments. Looking at his stats round by round over the last two events, he hasn’t had a single round inside the top 20 of approach play.

Still, it feels more likely that Scheffler turns up to TPC Sawgrass – one of his favorite courses on TOUR – and ball strikes his way into contention. Until that gut feeling changes, don’t panic. Nevertheless, it’s a trend worth watching.

Spieth’s struggles

Jordan Spieth co-led through 54 holes in his debut at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2014 and played alongside Martin Kaymer in the final round. Then just a one-time PGA TOUR winner, Spieth shot 74 that Sunday and lost to Kaymer, but it looked like he would surely be a force around TPC Sawgrass for years to come.

Spieth has played 28 rounds at THE PLAYERS since then. He’s been inside the top 10 on the leaderboard after just one of those rounds. It’s one of the more confounding trends on TOUR. Spieth has never been able to figure out the course outside of that first year. He’s missed the cut six times and notched just one other top 40 in 11 starts.

Simply, what the heck is going on with Spieth at TPC Sawgrass?

In some of his leaner years, Spieth’s wildness off the tee was surely punished here, but he’s largely cleaned up those foul balls in recent years, developing into one of the TOUR’s better drivers. He won the Valspar just a few hours down the road from Sawgrass and has won at other Pete Dye courses, like Harbour Town. Is it just a statistical anomaly bound to change at some point? That’s what Spieth is relying on. Some solace for Spieth: he is off to a solid start to this season. He finished T12-T11 in his last two starts and is finally finding a groove on the greens again, ranking in the top 20 in putting this year. So maybe this is the year it will change. It’s hard to say with any conviction, though.

The tree effect

As part of a multi-year restoration effort, TPC Sawgrass re-planted the iconic overhanging tree just past the sixth tee box ahead of last year’s event. The idea was to restore the course to the original intent of architect Pete Dye. Dye was famous for creating perilous shots, and some that just looked perilous, but were friendly if you could ignore what your eyes told you. That was the sixth hole to a tee. On the scorecard, a 413-yard par 4 is not much to write home about. A topographical map would concur. It’s a relatively flat, straightaway par 4. What made it intriguing was the tree. The best part: in reality, the tree is not that much of an obstacle, but it felt like one.

The stats proved that out once the tree returned. The sixth hole ranked as the fifth-hardest on the course last year, playing 50-over for the week. Comparatively, the sixth hole was the 13th-hardest (or sixth-easiest) on the course in 2024 and played 20-under for the week – a swing of 70 strokes year to year.

Will that trend continue in 2025? It remains one of the most fun holes to watch for this reason.

Breakout candidates

Last year, it was J.J. Spaun. Three years ago, it was Min Woo Lee. The PLAYERS has a way of pulling out great performances in unexpected places. They may not win the tournament (as we talked about above), but they make a name for themselves here, breaking through on the big stage. Both Spaun and Lee have gone on to bigger things. Spaun won the U.S. Open shortly after his heartbreaking playoff loss and Lee gained his TOUR card soon after and won his maiden TOUR title last year.

So who could be this year’s version? There always seems to be someone. Both Spaun and Lee had played well in the lead-up to their big performances at TPC Sawgrass. Form is indeed rewarded here. You don’t often see a player who was suddenly lost find their game at THE PLAYERS. That’s a testament to the test TPC Sawgrass presents. So, here are a few options:

• Ricky Castillo: The last man in the field via his win at the Puerto Rico Open, Castillo also finished top five at PGA National the week before. He’s only 24 years old.
• Rico Hoey: He’s the top course fit, based on the PGA TOUR’s model. He made the cut last year here and finished T33 despite a 78 on Saturday. Had he managed just an even-par round instead, he would have finished in the top 10.
• Lee Hodges: Very much in the Spaun mold, Hodges is a TOUR winner but not a known name. He’s also a strong course fit, per the TOUR’s model, and already has a top 10 this year, matching a similar profile to Spaun from last year.