The PGA TOUR returns to The Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades this week for The Genesis Invitational, one of the most iconic courses on the schedule.

Like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, this is a Signature Event featuring 72 of the best players on TOUR competing for one of the season’s marquee titles. Unlike Pebble Beach, however, The Genesis Invitational will feature a 36-hole cut, with only the top 50 and ties or those within 10 shots of the lead advancing to the weekend.

It’s important to remember that last year’s edition was played at Torrey Pines South due to the devastating fires in the Pacific Palisades area, where Ludvig Åberg (+4000) took his first Signature Event victory. A win this week would still make him the first player in the last 17 years to successfully defend their title at The Genesis.

The last champion crowned at Riviera was Hideki Matsuyama (+2500), who stormed back from six shots back on Sunday to win in 2024. That week, Matsuyama felt unstoppable. He gained strokes all over the course. He was positive off the tee and on approach, excellent around the greens, and gained significantly with the putter despite entering the event having lost strokes putting in four of his previous five starts (via Rick Gehman).

Riviera really separates with the second shot. Golfers who succeed here tend to be the ones who can keep it in the short grass enough, then score with their mid irons. The average approach distance at Riviera is 177.8 yards, significantly higher than the TOUR average of 167.4. The two most common approach ranges are 150 to 175 and 175 to 200 (data via Betsperts). Unlike Pebble Beach, where golfers club down often and still have a wedge in, Riviera forces the field to excel from distance.

Here are the golfers who have gained the most strokes from those ranges over the last 36 rounds:

Riviera is a blend of difficult and scoreable holes. It’s long and mean, but it’s not just 18 holes of brutality. There are genuinely tough holes where par is a good score, and there are a handful where birdie or better is mandatory. Seven of the 18 holes play under par, and that number is carried heavily by the three par 5s, all of which play at least 0.32 strokes under par. The drivable par-4 10th is the other getable hole. It has the highest birdie rate (27.69%) of every non-par 5 on the course.

First Round Leader: Jake Knapp (+3900)

First Round Top 10 +370 | First Round Top 20 +130

Jake Knapp (+3700) has been one of the more compelling stories to start the season. His results have been excellent, but it hasn’t been perfect throughout the bag. At the Sony Open in Hawaii, he finished T11 while losing -0.66 strokes on approach. He followed that with a T5 at the Farmers while losing strokes both on approach and around the green. In those two events, his putter carried him.

Then we saw the growth of Knapp. At the WM Phoenix Open, he finished eighth while gaining +4.1 strokes on approach, even though he lost -0.26 putting. And last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, he backed it up again with a T8, gaining across the board.

It’s only a matter of time before he wins again, and what I like most is that he’s done this on courses that have asked different questions. He’s played places where you can just hit driver anywhere and figure it out. He’s played tighter layouts where you must drive it with control. Even at Pebble, a course where players club down and play for position, he wasn’t some massive off-the-tee gainer, but he was still positive and still finished inside the top 10.

There’s always been this thought around Riviera that newcomers don’t really win here, that you need reps to learn the ins and outs before you can truly contend. That might matter for an outright wager. It doesn’t stop me from backing Knapp in the first-round markets.

Not only is Knapp playing good golf, but he’s also been a strong first-round golfer. Over the last 21 rounds, he’s third in this field in First Round Leader percentage. His first-round top-10 rate is also absurd. He’s finished inside the top 10 after Round 1 in 30% of his last 20 starts, and he’s finished top 20 after Round 1 in 55% of his last 20 starts.

It’s also worth noting Riviera has been getting a lot of water. If it plays softer than usual, and if the rough stays more manageable because of it, that’s another small nudge toward guys who can carry it out there and attack early. If you want length, confidence, and a legitimate fast start profile, Knapp is the guy. I’d rather play the FRL and sprinkle the Round 1 top 20.

Golfers who could struggle

Tee-to-green is king at Riviera. The last five winners of this tournament finished in the top three in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green for the week. That’s not unique to Riviera, but it matters more here because the course forces you to be good with both driver and irons. If you aren’t, you need to be elite around the greens to survive.

So instead of just fading “bad iron players,” I’m looking at golfers who haven’t been gaining tee to green recently and also aren’t putting well enough to cover it up.

Here are the golfers who have gained the fewest strokes tee to green over the last 12 rounds (data via Rick Gehman):

1. Brian Campbell
2. Jhonattan Vegas
3. Matti Schmid
4. Kevin Yu
5. Tom Hoge
6. Aldrich Potgieter
7. Nico Echavarria
8. Michael Kim
9. Garrick Higgo
10. Max Greyserman

Round 1 matchup parlay

Matthew Fitzpatrick over Garrick Higgo & Wyndham Clark over Brian Campbell (+169)

Initially, I was just going to play Fitzpatrick over Higgo at -172 at DraftKings, but I wanted to have a little more fun and grab some extra value by building a small Round 1 fade parlay.

Higgo landing on the fade list didn’t surprise me, despite a solid end to last season, highlighted by a T7 at the Procore Championship and a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms, plus respectable results at the Butterfield Bermuda and Worldwide Technology. But to start this season, something is off, and most of it is the irons. He has lost strokes on approach in his last four events, and the last two are the red flag. He’s lost at least four strokes on approach in both. Fitzpatrick’s game is trending the right way, and Riviera fits his eye, so he’s the first leg.

The second leg is Wyndham Clark over Brian Campbell. Campbell is a multiple-time TOUR winner, so no disrespect. But his current form is brutal. He’s averaging 274 yards off the tee. He’s been poor with mid to long irons, ranking 91st last season from 175 to 200 and 151st from 200 to 225. To start this season, it’s been bad. He’s lost strokes off the tee in every event. He’s lost strokes on approach in three of his last four. And he hasn’t been good enough around the greens to bail himself out.

Clark hasn’t been excellent by any stretch, but if the putter cooperates even a little, this course should keep him hovering in that 20th to 30th range.

Best Value on the Board: Hideki Matsuyama to win (+2500)

Matsuyama is always a puzzle, because it feels like his game is never 100% there. When he’s great off the tee, he’s unstoppable. When the irons pop, and the putter heats up, he’s unstoppable. What’s wild is that he rarely does all three at once, yet he still finds himself in contention constantly.

He won the Hero late last year, and since then, he hasn’t finished worse than T13. That T13 came in the season opener, where he still contended while losing 2.5 strokes putting. At Pebble Beach and at the WM Phoenix Open, he was right there. If not for poor drives, he probably would have won.

Riviera fits him because you don’t have to be perfect off the tee, but you do have to be special with irons, distance control, and spin control. That’s his game. Right now, the putting is cooperating. He gained six strokes on the greens at the WM Phoenix Open and another 3.9 at Pebble Beach. The tee-to-green has been solid as well. I’d have him priced closer to 18 to 1 than 25 to 1, so for me, this is the best value number on the board.

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