Scottie Scheffler reminded everyone exactly why he’s the world No. 1 last week at The American Express.

Scheffler started Sunday in the final group, one shot back of Si Woo Kim (+2700), and eventually pulled away to win at 27-under, finishing four clear of the three tied for second. What made it even more impressive was how he did it. Scheffler closed with a double on 17 and still won by four. Tip your cap to Scheffler, and to anyone brave enough to lay the short number.

This week, bettors get a breather. Scheffler isn’t in the field, which means we don’t have to decide between swallowing a low price or trying to beat the best golfer on the planet.

Our attention shifts to San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open, where defending champion Harris English (+3300) returns looking to go back-to-back and capture his sixth PGA TOUR title.

The tournament begins Thursday with golfers rotating between Torrey Pines’ North and South Courses. After the Friday cut, all remaining players head exclusively to the South Course for the weekend.

With no ShotLink data on the North Course and three of four rounds played on the South, most of the modeling and handicapping leans heavily on South Course performance. With that said, the North Course still matters. Six of the last seven winners played the North Course at 4-under or better, with Matthieu Pavon (+20000) the lone exception at 3-under during his winning run.

While Torrey Pines is difficult, the North Course is the scoring opportunity. It measures just over 7,250 yards as a par 72, and players know they must post a number before heading to the beast that is Torrey Pines South.

At nearly 7,800 yards, the South Course is one of the longest tracks on TOUR. It features four par 5s, two stretching beyond 600 yards, plus four par 3s with three playing over 200 yards. Add in multiple demanding par 4s, and it’s clear to see why the South Course plays so tough.

Length alone doesn’t tell the full story. The South Course offers only about 18 acres of fairways with average widths in the 24-27 yard range, making it feel even longer than it already is. Players who combine distance with accuracy, or those with elite clubhead speed, gain a clear advantage.

The greens add another layer of difficulty. At roughly 5,000 square feet, they’re among the smallest on TOUR. With average approach distances hovering around 180 yards and a heavy dose of shots coming from 200-plus, golfers are constantly hitting mid-to-long irons into tiny targets. Misses are inevitable. Scrambling prowess is a separator.

Three things matter most at Torrey Pines: approach play from 200-plus yards, elite around-the-green skill and Bogey Avoidance. Each of the last 10 winners has been above the TOUR average in each of those categories in their career rounds on the South Course.

Historically, Torrey Pines rewards elite ball strikers who thrive with mid-to-long irons, manage tough scoring conditions and stay patient while keeping bogeys off the card. Strong off-the-tee play is a must, with a slight bias toward distance over accuracy. Strokes Gained: Approach from 175 to 200 yards and 200-plus are the key proximity buckets to target. Around-the-green skill also matters, because with long approaches into small greens, players are often missing greens or struggling to hold them with lower ball flights.

Over the last 36 rounds, these golfers rank highest in Strokes Gained: Approach 200 to 225 yards (Data via RickRunGood.com):

1. Alejandro Tosti
2. Sami Valimaki
3. Chandler Phillips
4. Ludvig Åberg
5. Cameron Young
6. Patrick Fishburn
7. Kevin Yu
8. Gary Woodland
9. Akshay Bhatia
10. Tom Hoge

Bombers who spray it can still be playable, but short hitters without elite iron play usually get exposed. The sweet spot is finding golfers who drive it long and efficiently while pairing that with strong approach numbers. If they can also roll it on poa annua, that’s an added bonus.

Looking specifically at putting on poa annua greens over the last 36 rounds, these players sit at the top of the field:

1. Justin Hastings
2. Pierceson Coody
3. Sami Valimaki
4. Adrien Dumont de Chassart
5. S.H. Kim

Horse for course: Ludvig Åberg +1800

I’m still working through whether Ludvig Åberg (+1800) is the outright value this week, but there’s no denying this: if you were building a golfer in a lab specifically for Torrey Pines, Åberg would appear.

In two career starts here, he’s finished T9 in 2024 and T42 last season. That T42 doesn’t tell the full story. Åberg opened with a blistering 8-under 63 on the North Course to grab the first-round lead before falling ill as the week went on. His play faded as the symptoms set in, and the illness ultimately forced him to withdraw the following week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

With The Genesis Invitational relocated to Torrey Pines South due to the California wildfires, Åberg returned to the same venue just two weeks later and won.

As his success here already suggests, Torrey Pines fits Åberg’s eye. And the numbers back it up.

He’s plenty long off the tee, averaging around 303 yards, with a clubhead speed of 128.6 mph that ranked 29th on TOUR last season. He finds fairways at roughly a 60 percent clip, and his proximity from 200 to 225 yards sits among the best in the field. While he probably makes a few more bogeys than you’d like, the overall profile makes too much sense to ignore.

He ranks 13th in the field in driving distance, seventh around the green, seventh in approaches from 175 to 200, and fourth from 200 to225. Add in his course history, where he’s fourth in strokes gained average, plus sixth in the field on long courses, it’s clear he’s the best option.

My only hesitation comes down to health. Åberg withdrew from last week’s The American Express due to illness, and if that’s something that lingers like what he dealt with last season, there’s always a risk his play deteriorates as the week goes on. That’s a big question mark at +1800. However, if he’s fully healthy, Åberg checks every box at Torrey Pines.

Best value on the board: 72 Hole Matchup, Wyndham Clark (-125) over Denny McCarthy

One of the clearest fades at Torrey Pines is for shorter hitters who struggle from distance. There’s a reason Denny McCarthy’s history here is underwhelming. In four starts, he’s finished no better than T64, with two missed cuts. Yes, his last appearance came five years ago, but Torrey Pines remains a difficult fit for his skill set.

Across three of the most important areas this week, McCarthy sits near the bottom of the field. He ranks 83rd in approaches from 175 to 200 yards and 96th from 220 to 225. He’s not unplayable on long courses, but unless his putter completely carries him, he’s a logical fade candidate.

That brings us to Wyndham Clark.

It wasn’t the prettiest close to last season, with two missed cuts in four starts, but Clark opened this year with signs of life, finishing T13 at The American Express. His game is built for long, demanding venues, and Torrey Pines fits that mold. If he continues trending in the right direction, Clark is well-positioned to post a solid week, one that should land ahead of McCarthy come Sunday.