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Feb 27, 2024

Horses for Courses: Bulldogs can handle The Bear Trap

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Horses for Courses

Golfbet Roundtable: Picks and predictions for the Cognizant Classic

Golfbet Roundtable: Picks and predictions for the Cognizant Classic

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches returns to The Champion course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens for the 18th consecutive season.

    Horses for Courses

    Making his 13th start in the last 14 seasons, 2023 champion Chris Kirk (+4000) will try to become the first two-time champion at PGA National. The former University of Georgia product became the fourth Bulldog winner of the last 10 tournaments on the Jack Nicklaus design. Firing a second-round 62 on his way to victory last year, the Georgia native and Athens resident provided clues he would breakthrough with T7 in 2022 and T25 in 2021.

    SG: Approach the Green

    Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

    RankPlayer
    6Gary Woodland
    7Rickie Fowler
    8Rory McIlroy
    9Tom Hoge
    10Tom Kim
    14Mark Hubbard
    15Lucas Glover
    17Justin Rose
    18Russell Henley
    19Eric Cole

    A new sponsor isn’t the only significant change for the 2024 edition. Playing as one of the toughest par 4s on TOUR, No. 10 has evolved to a par-5 challenge. Now measuring 535 yards and slightly shifted left, one of the most difficult holes on the course will now provide a scoring opportunity. The rough, overseeded (rye) Bermuda was lowered this season to 2.25 inches and should help approaches. Cross-breezes off the Atlantic Ocean and water lurking on 15 of 18 holes will require a full commitment standing over imperfect lies. Finding the proper tier on the 7,000-square-foot putting surfaces will reduce stress on the putter. The last 10 winners have all ranked in the top 19, with seven champions ranking eighth or better.

    From 2012 through 2019, Rickie Fowler (+6600) was an automatic selection. Cashing in seven of eight starts, the 2017 winner also shared second in 2019. Finishing T24 or better in six of those eight starts, the resurgent Ryder Cupper from last summer has cooled over his last three appearances (T42-T65-MC). Nobody has won more money at this event.

    RankPlayer
    5Matt Kuchar
    6Ryan Moore
    10Russell Henley
    11Aaron Baddeley
    12Doug Ghim
    13Brendon Todd
    14Stephan Jaeger
    17Tom Kim
    18Greyson Sigg
    19Denny McCarthy
    20Eric Cole
    T21Rory McIlroy

    Highlighting both great putters and great ball strikers, the list above is interesting. Obviously, there is more than one way to keep the squares off the card. Bogeys will be squared this week. Minimizing the trips to the drop zones and not three-putting the TifEagle greens running at 12 feet on the Stimpmeter is required. Taking the proper lines off the tee and into the greens is necessary, especially with water on 15 of the 18 holes. Birdies are hard to find, and hopefully, the new par 5 will help, but PGA National has ranked in the bottom 15 of courses on Birdie Average over the last six years. Grinding out pars this week and the next three weeks during the Florida Swing will be required to contend.

    Cashing in eight of nine visits, Russell Henley (+2500) will look to beat his UGA alums to the winner’s circle for the second time. The champion in 2014, winning a four-man playoff that included Rory McIlroy, shared third in his last visit in 2021 after sharing eighth in 2020. Cashing T24 or better in his last four visits, he will look to extend his streak on his favored Bermudagrass.

    RankPlayer
    T5Rory McIlroy
    T5Denny McCarthy
    T7Russell Henley
    T7Akshay Bhatia
    T7Tom Kim
    T7Luke List
    T15Thomas Detry
    T15Beau Hossler
    T15Aaron Rai
    T15Brendon Todd
    T15Kevin Yu

    Annually playing over par, the par 3s rank among the toughest challenges on TOUR. The par 4s can provide relative relief. The previous four winners have registered T8 or better in par-4 scoring, along with eight of the last 10. Playing 450 yards or less, seven holes of the 11 par 4s can present scoring chances and opportunities to make birdies. The tournament scoring record was shared last year by Kirk and debutant Eric Cole (+2500). The average winning score over 17 events is a shade better than 9-under. Par is a very good score this week.

    Making his first appearance in six years after T59 in 2018, Jupiter resident and favorite Rory McIlroy (+750) will look to add to his podium finishes at The Champion course. The 2012 winner was knocked out in a four-man playoff in 2014 by Henley before missing the cut the following two seasons. Fresh off his "Capital One’s The Match" victory on Monday night at The Park in West Palm Beach, Florida, he will look to break a streak of eight consecutive rounds above par at PGA National.

    Oddsmaker’s Extras

    Sepp Straka (+4000): The 2022 winner and University of Georgia product picked up T5 money in his title defense. Streaking with four straight weekends at The Champion course, he’s rattled off seven consecutive rounds in the 60s.

    Sungjae Im (+3500): Winning the 2020 title in just his second attempt, the Korean cashed T8 in defense before missing the cut in 2022 and cashing T42 last year. Only one round from his last seven has produced a red number.

    Keith Mitchell (+4000): Surely folks will assemble an all-Georgia card, right? So many choices! Winning in 2019, Mitchell kicked off a run of three first-time winners in four years that Kirk derailed last season. Raising the trophy on his second visit, he reinforced that multiple previous reps are not mandatory to contend or win at PGA National.

    Shane Lowry (+3300): The Irishman has never missed the weekend in six tries, and the last two years have produced his best two results. Cashing solo second in 2022, he ran it back for T5 last year and extended his rounds of par or better to 10 of 12.

    Daniel Berger (+4000): Battling Padraig Harrington (+50000) in a Monday playoff in his tournament debut in 2015, the kid who grew up locally settled for second place. Returning for the first time since 2022, his streak of made cuts is now at four. Finishing fourth and T4 in his last two visits (2022, '20) runs his total of top-four finishes to three from just seven events. All aboard!

    -Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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