The usual bite was gone from PGA National’s Champion course in the opening round of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, but those hoping for carnage might be catered for with Friday’s forecast winds.

With shorter rough, softer greens, no wind and the old tough par-4 10th converted to a getable par 5, the scoring average of -1.457 was a historic low for the tournament in the opening round.

From 2007-23 the lowest round scoring average was -0.71 in Round 3 of 2023. Direct comparisons cannot be made with a new layout but it still paints a picture. (One three-ball was also yet to finish play due to darkness.)

But Friday calls for winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph through the middle part of the day, bringing back some menace to this track.

This could spell trouble for morning wave players who finish on the treacherous back nine "The Bear Trap" or perhaps those afternoon wave players starting on the back side.

The back nine (-1.097) played way easier in round one than the front (-0.357) however the addition of wind could take that advantage away. Those players getting there later in the afternoon, when the wind could have laid down, might get a leg up.

This is good fortune for betting favorite Rory McIlroy (+700) who starts off the first tee in the afternoon, theoretically giving him a good spot in the rotation.

McIlroy battled a scratchy approach game Thursday but still put together a 4-under 67 to be three shots off the lead.

That lead is held jointly by Chad Ramey and S.H. Kim at 7-under while Cameron Young, Andrew Novak, Ryan Moore, Austin Eckroat, Chesson Hadley and David Skinns share third at 6-under.

Here is a look at the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook after the first day.

• +700: Rory McIlroy (-4, T16)
• +800: Cameron Young (-6, T3)
• +1800: S.H. Kim (-7, T1)
• +2200: Byeong Hun An (-4, T16)
• +2500: Erik van Rooyen (-5, T9)
• +2500: Chesson Hadley (-6, T3)
• +2500: Andrew Novak (-6, T3)
• +2500: Min Woo Lee (-4, T16)
• +2800: Shane Lowry (-4, T16)

Draws

Chris Kirk (+3300, -4)

The defending champion was on fire early, jumping out to 5-under through seven holes before a loose swing in "The Bear Trap" led to a double bogey on 17. But he rebounded from the mishap with a bounce-back birdie to ultimately shoot 4-under. Despite not having his best for a portion of the round, Kirk still ranked 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green and at 10th on the season in the same metric he’s a player I feel can be banked on to strike the ball well for three more days. Eight of the last nine winners here have ranked inside the top five of SG: Tee-to-Green on their way to victory with four of them leading the field in the metric. A year ago, Kirk shot a 62 in the second round.

Andrew Novak (+2500, -6)

Novak was my pre-tournament longshot at +12500 so I have to continue with the love here. After two top-10s in his last two starts he’s starting to get comfortable in contention. Most importantly he ranks fourth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green after Thursday – on point with his season rank of sixth.

Matthieu Pavon (+320 for Top 10 at DraftKings)

The FedExCup leader sits in a tie for 16th after the opening round after another solid and bogey-free round of golf. He managed to score nicely while ranking 39th in SG: Tee-to-Green, down from his season rank of third. Having not played for a few weeks I see Thursday’s round as a little bit of a rust breaker. Now he can climb up the boards making him value for a top-10, or even higher, from here.

Fade

Rory McIlroy (+700)

This one could easily bite me on the backside given the possibility McIlroy gets the rails run with the draw but I didn’t like these similar odds at the start of the tournament and I don’t like them any better now he is three back. McIlroy was a fascination to watch on Thursday because his driving of the golf ball was pretty stellar (ranked first) but his approach game was very scratchy indeed (ranked 114th). Given his approach game has been a problem in his previous TOUR starts this season I’m loathed to advocate placing hard earned on him when dangers lurk around multiple greens at PGA National. But if he can turn it around on Friday I could be turned into an instant believer.

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