Well, this isn’t how we drew it up, is it!

Whatever was your experience at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, you didn’t plan on Rory McIlroy’s withdrawal before the third round or Scottie Scheffler’s second straight outing during which he failed to perform to the familiar level that compelled us to map out how to maximize our three allotted starts in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf from the six that he’d make. And you certainly didn’t plan on both in the same tournament.

But this is why we play. Well, it’s not why we play, but it’s what we accept when we agree to play. There are going to be weeks that remind us that we control only so much. As I’ve echoed many times, as the wise man once said, it’s why it’s called gambling.

As we turn the page for THE PLAYERS Championship, we’re gifted with a construct for which a one-two punch like last week’s won’t punish as much because the PGA TOUR’s flagship event concludes Segment 1. While you may have been bitten in exhausting starts for either McIlroy and/or Scheffler at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, if the same thing happens at TPC Sawgrass, it won’t sting as badly because starts for all golfers are reset to three when next week’s Valspar Championship launches Segment 2.

The opportunity to burn whoever you want in the Segment finale also introduces a reminder of your ultimate targets.

Notwithstanding the unique goals of private leagues, the majority of us are chasing the weekly prize of a pair of grounds passes at the 2026 Presidents Cup in September. So, this is a speed slot within the marathon of the season for which the grand prize is a pair of Captain’s Club tickets at Medinah Country Club that week. (There are no prizes for Segment leaders.)

As a result, your focus needs to be only on this week. As important and impactful that THE PLAYERS is in reality, it’s merely a one-week fantasy “season” in our world. With what you control, you can only contribute to the short- and long-range objectives. You can’t effectively cost yourself anything. That’s not such a bad approach for the 123 golfers in the field, either, so resist making it more difficult.

TPC Sawgrass forever is humbling, so it’s not surprising that THE PLAYERS is not the top pick for any of the 15 golfers included in Future Possibilities that considers among all tournaments in Segment 1 below. Heck, only half of my charges saved (as of midday Tuesday) even appear in the section. Course history isn’t irrelevant, but form upon arrival is in the driver’s seat. That’s your tiebreaker.

Captain

Collin Morikawa … Although I have a start remaining for McIlroy – for whom my approach this week is detailed below – Morikawa is deserving. He’s No. 1 in my Power Rankings.

Other considerations

• Scottie Scheffler ... After losing him in the auto-swap when McIlroy withdrew before the third round at Bay Hill, my option to designate him as captain in pursuit of a third PLAYERS title in four years went by the boards. However, his T24 was uninspiring, so I’m not sure if I’d have stuck with the plan, anyway. Still, I don’t accept a universe in which he isn’t your captain every time he pegs it. Keep the faith in that tactic. As fantasy strategies are concerned, that’s a pretty good one.
• Si Woo Kim ... The actual ranking in the Power Rankings always is my last step, but I often go into the project with a feeling of where I expect guys to land once I’ve completed the heavy lifting of the analysis. This is to say that I wouldn’t have been surprised if he was No. 1. He already had been playing consistently stronger for months than perhaps at any point of his career, but the personal-best T13 at Bay Hill (in his 11th appearance) with red numbers in every round for the first time was especially impressive. The kicker is that he’s already won THE PLAYERS (2017).

Rounding out the roster

Again, a McIlroy- and Scheffler-free lineup for THE PLAYERS wasn’t the intent, but as all fantasy gamers are aware, there always are a lot of other good players still available, and there’s no better spot than TPC Sawgrass to embrace a bagful of zags.

My starters

• Ludvig Åberg
• Hideki Matsuyama
• Si Woo Kim
• Collin Morikawa (C)

My bench

• Akshay Bhatia (1)
• Sahith Theegala (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

J.J. Spaun ... With his inclusion on only 2.5 percent of the rosters saved, you really don’t need me supporting an abstention, but it’s an opportunity to reiterate that course success takes a back seat to recent form in the macro. His form ahead of last year’s playoff loss was really solid, but he has no better than a T40 among only two paydays in five starts this season. If he or anyone else thinks that TPC Sawgrass will present an elixir for what ails, the course forever barks, “Oh, yeah? Try me!”

Cameron Young ... Meanwhile, here’s an example of the converse. Unlike Spaun, Young has zero top 50s in four tries at TPC Sawgrass, but he arrived with a T7 and a T3 in the last two Signature Events. However, when you dive deeper, both The Riviera Country Club and Bay Hill not only are layouts that reward his skill set, he’s proven it time and again at both. So, this is the week to stand down even though 23.6 percent of the gamers with him rostered at last check are leaning in.

Jordan Spieth ... There may be no better an example of a notable who doesn’t fit TPC Sawgrass as strongly as he does, so not only isn’t there reason him to roster him in fantasy (despite what 5.3 percent of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers think), his odds at DraftKings just to make the cut (-225) are absurd. Since a T4 in his tournament debut, he’s missed six of 10 cuts and finished inside the top 40 once (T19, 2023).

Harry Hall ... He’s owned by less than one percent but he’s fresh off a T9 at Bay Hill, so he deserves a brief review. TPC Sawgrass and its smaller-than-average greens reward ball-striking more than it does putting, so his reverse splits aren’t a match. While he’s 0-for-2 and unlikely to remain shut out over time, wait to strike until it makes more sense.

Returning to competition

• Rory McIlroy ... Since calling it quits at the midpoint of the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to back spasms, the defending champion is slow-playing his trip to TPC Sawgrass. His plan is to stay home for treatment with the intent to arrive on Wednesday. The proximity of his U.S. digs in south Florida to THE PLAYERS is a coincidence, so there’s nothing into which to read as it concerns timing to travel. He also needs no further education for how the course will challenge, which also is a bonus. The benefit for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers is that you can stash him on your bench (if he’s not your captain with the intent for four rounds to contribute) without concerning yourself with a start in even one round because this tournament concludes Segment 1.
• Jake Knapp ... Like McIlroy at No. 7 in my Power Rankings, Knapp also appears at No. 13. An illness prevented him from giving it a go last week at Bay Hill, but it’s unlikely to put a halt to his torrid form with which he’s opened 2026. Since a T11 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he’s finished T5, eighth, T8 and sixth. The conservative gamer that I am, he doesn’t populate my lineup, but he could be a beast in DFS.
• Austin Smotherman ... Like McIlroy, Smotherman also succumbed to a sore back at Bay Hill, but he managed to complete five holes of his third round before walking off. While every decision to withdraw from a tournament is serious, you know he truly gave it everything he had, given that it was his debut in a Signature Event (after qualifying via the Aon Next 10), and he made the cut. That experience is never on anyone’s bingo card, but especially a Korn Ferry Tour grad who knows what it’s like to lose a PGA TOUR card. The good news is that he’s 36th in the FedExCup and poised to continue to contribute, but leave him alone this week in every format.

Future possibilities

NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom more than three starts may be considered in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 1 no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.

• Corey Conners ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Matt Fitzpatrick ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Tommy Fleetwood ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Brian Harman ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Viktor Hovland ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Sungjae Im ... THE PLAYERS (5)
• Si Woo Kim ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Shane Lowry ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Robert MacIntyre ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Hideki Matsuyama ... THE PLAYERS (4)
• Rory McIlroy ... THE PLAYERS (2; defending)
• Collin Morikawa ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Xander Schauffele ... THE PLAYERS (4)
• Scottie Scheffler ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Sepp Straka ... THE PLAYERS (2)

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