Draws and Fades: Scottie Scheffler lurks as no lead is safe at TPC Twin Cities

The second round of the 3M Open is officially in the books, and once again we witnessed an incredible performance. After Ben Kohles (+810 at DraftKings Sportsbook) stole the show with his opening-round 62, Michael Kim (+210) answered with a historic round of his own on Friday.

Kim joined elite company by becoming just the 15th player in PGA TOUR history to shoot 59 or better in a TOUR event.

To put his round into perspective, Kim gained +10.88 strokes on the field, according to DataGolf. That was more than four strokes better than anyone else in the field. Now at 14-under, Kim holds a three-shot lead heading into the weekend.

But as I mentioned yesterday with Kohles’ lead, no advantage is truly safe at TPC Twin Cities. This golf course offers so many birdie opportunities that a player can get hot for one round and completely change the complexion of the tournament. Kim’s 59 is the perfect example.

Of course, all eyes remain on world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+650). He had a disappointing second round and is now seven shots off the lead heading into the weekend.

Draws

Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (Including Ties) -125

Honestly, I was kind of hoping Scheffler would miss that birdie putt on No. 18. If he had finished even on the day and sat eight shots off the lead, we’d probably be getting a much better number. Even so, I still think -125 is a very playable price.

Scheffler actually started the round in complete control before things unraveled on the back nine. A couple of loose swings and he eventually found the water, and from there the mistakes started to compound. It certainly wasn’t his best performance.

The biggest issue continues to be his irons. He’s now lost strokes on approach in two of his last three starts. That said, a bounce-back wouldn’t surprise me at all. At the Genesis Scottish Open, he had one of his worst approach weeks in months and missed the cut, only to respond with a strong showing at The Open Championship. Last week the putter was the problem. This week, it’s been the exact opposite. Through two rounds, he’s gained +1.97 strokes putting, and despite a poor approach performance on Friday, he’s still gaining strokes on approach for the tournament.

I’ll also say this because approach numbers can be misleading at times. Outside of a couple of errant shots on the back nine that found the water, Scheffler didn’t hit the ball all that poorly. Remove those swings and it was a fairly average iron day.

What separates Scheffler is what he can do over 72 holes. Even after an off round, he’s still capable of firing a 63 or putting together a blistering nine-hole stretch that completely changes the tournament. That’s why he’s always dangerous in both the outright and placement markets.

TPC Twin Cities is also an excellent fit for his game. Length and accuracy off the tee are rewarded here, and Scheffler is one of the few players who has both. Elite approach players also thrive because these greens demand precise distance control to find the correct shelves. That’s one of Scheffler’s greatest strengths. I also like him on these greens because, while there is plenty of movement, much of it comes from the different shelves rather than severe slopes across the putting surface. If you’re consistently hitting your approaches close, the putting is straightforward.

So yes, if you want to sprinkle a little on Scheffler to win at +650, I wouldn’t talk you out of it. But my preferred play is Top 5 (including ties) at -125. We all know the patented Scheffler weekend charge is coming. The only question is whether it’s enough to catch the leader or simply secure another top finish.

Fades

Michael Kim +210

Realistically, I don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb by saying Kim isn’t going to win this golf tournament.

Much like I said in yesterday’s column, I’d probably look toward the over on Kim’s third-round score prop. There are so many emotions that come with shooting 59, and backing that up with another scorching round is incredibly difficult. We saw something similar with Kohles. He came out hot in the second round before fading because it’s nearly impossible to sustain that kind of momentum.

There are a few golfers around +800 that I like to win this tournament, and Jackson Koivun (+850) would probably top that list. Of course, Scheffler is always in the conversation, but that’s the obvious answer. If I’m going to fade the 36-hole leader, I’d rather do it with someone who offers a much bigger return.

That brings me to Hideki Matsuyama (+4500).

Matsuyama sits seven shots behind Kim, but if there’s someone capable of going out and firing a 60 on Saturday, it’s Matsuyama.

He posted a terrific 7-under round on Friday, highlighted by a brilliant back nine. What’s funny is it easily could have been 10- or 11-under had the putter cooperated. It was one of the best 65s you’ll see from a player who still lost strokes putting. Several birdie opportunities just refused to drop, and despite that, he still played his way right back into contention.

Matsuyama is a gamer. When he catches fire, he can move up a leaderboard in a hurry. TPC Twin Cities is an excellent fit for his game because he is an elite ball-striker, and his short game has already bailed him out a few times this week. If the putter heats up over the weekend, making up seven shots doesn’t feel nearly as impossible as it might seem.