Draws & Fades: Look for Michael Brennan to climb the leaderboard at 3M Open

I honestly don’t know what to say about the first round of the 3M Open other than wow, Ben Kohles!

Early in the opening round, there was a sense that TPC Twin Cities might play a little more difficult than expected. Maybe we would see a winning score closer to 14- or 15-under rather than somewhere in the mid-20s. For a little while, it seemed like that could be the case.

Then the scoring average finished at 0.96 strokes under par, and Kohles delivered one of the most remarkable opening rounds of the season.

Kohles fired a 9-under 62, and honestly, it felt kind of boring. But that is exactly what you want. You want boring golf. You want to hit fairways, hit greens, and stay away from any unnecessary drama.

So, what made Kohles’ 62 so special? He hit 12 of 14 fairways and 17 of 18 greens. He also stuck his approach from more than 240 yards to inside 10 feet on the 18th hole, setting up what was essentially a gimme eagle.

It was good to see Kohles (+700 to win at DraftKings Sportsbook) bounce back after a brutal closing stretch at the John Deere Classic. Even with a two-stroke lead over Emiliano Grillo (+2000), Jackson Koivun (+950), and Gary Woodland (+1600), this tournament is far from over. There are roughly 25 golfers within five strokes of the lead. Most notably, Scottie Scheffler (+150) is just three strokes back.

This is totally anecdotal, but whenever someone grabs the first-round lead by shooting a number close to 60, my first instinct is to fade them the following day. Kohles is classically the type of golfer I would look to fade, but I’m not entirely sure how I want to attack that just yet.

For now, I’ll look for some other opportunities in the Draws and Fades section. Just know that in the back of my mind, I want to fade Kohles because I don’t believe he can replicate that level of success in consecutive rounds.

Draws

Michael Brennan Top 10 (+176) | Top 20 (-138)

The Top-20 price really comes down to your tolerance for juice. There are plenty of sports bettors who don’t want to lay a number like -138. They would rather risk a smaller amount for a bigger return, which is completely understandable and makes the Top 10, or even the Top 5, a viable option.

Still, the main bet for Brennan should be Top 20 because of the value this number possesses.

How can I sit here and say there is value on a golfer to finish inside the Top 20 when he has only done it in 5.3% of his 19 starts this season? It comes down to where Brennan has historically found success during his short career.

He won the Bank of Utah Championship at a golf course that creates separation off the tee and gives longer hitters an advantage. He finished T18 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in 2025, another venue that gives a significant advantage to strong drivers of the golf ball. He also added a T26 earlier this season in Puerto Rico at another course that rewards players who can separate off the tee.

His lone top-10 finish of the season came at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which is played at Colonial Country Club. For those unfamiliar with Colonial, it is a demanding driving course with difficult fairways to hit. The rough isn’t overly thick, however, so players who can dominate off the tee can still find plenty of success.

That is not all that different from what we are seeing this week. The fairways at TPC Twin Cities are more generous, and the greens are much bigger, but this is still a golf course that has historically favored some of the best drivers of the ball.

Brennan also put together a fantastic opening round, shooting 6-under while ranking second in the field in ball-striking and gaining +5.55 strokes. His approach play was excellent, and the only area where he lost strokes was around the green.

His biggest issue all season has been the putter, but there were some promising signs Thursday. Brennan gained +0.49 strokes putting in the opening round. If he can keep that up, he might not only finish inside the Top 10. He could win this tournament.

Fades

Tournament Matchup: Mackenzie Hughes (+310) over Rico Hoey

Let’s be very clear about something. Rico Hoey has a four-stroke lead over Mackenzie Hughes, so there is a reason Hoey is now priced at -440 to win this 72-hole matchup.

Still, I have noticed a trend with Hoey over his past few events. He has come out of the gates fast, gaining strokes in the opening round, and then falls apart shortly afterward.

At the Corales Puntacana Championship, Hoey gained strokes on the field in the first round before losing strokes in both the second and third rounds. At the John Deere Classic, he gained strokes in the opening round before a rough second round and he ultimately missed the cut. At the RBC Canadian Open, he once again gained strokes in the first round before fading Friday and missing the weekend.

There is just so much volatility in his game.

You know Hoey is going to be lights-out with the driver, but his iron play has not been good enough. There was also a stretch last season when it looked like he had fixed some of his putting issues after switching to the broomstick putter. Now, the wheels have officially come off. And he’s back to scratching his head on the greens.

Hoey has not gained strokes putting in any of his past four starts, and he already opened the 3M by losing strokes with the flat stick.

Hughes is not an elite ball-striker. He only hits about 53% of his fairways and doesn’t separate himself with extreme distance. But Hughes is a gamer. He has consistently found ways to overcome his ball-striking issues with an excellent putter.

Just look at some of his results. Hughes finished T20 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and posted a pair of Top 10s, including one at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He lost strokes on approach in all three of those events, and most of that success was heavily driven by the flat stick.

Is this the type of data profile that has me running to the window and dropping the 401(k)? Absolutely not.

This is a small stab at a big price to fade Hoey at a number I don’t agree with. For something a little more palatable, take a look at Jake Knapp at -108 to finish higher than Keith Mitchell.

That bet is less of a long shot, but also isn’t quite as fun!