Draws and Fades: Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick among names to watch amidst unpredictable RBC Canadian Open

Moving Day at the RBC Canadian Open turned into a full leaderboard reset. Several players in the early wave made their move, while many of the favorites after 36 holes struggled on Saturday.

Ben James, the 23-year-old who began the day in the lead in his professional debut, unraveled with a string of bogeys that culminated in an 8-over 78. Another leading contender, Brooks Koepka, was dealing with an apparent injury that derailed his chances of winning, as he drifted from T7 to T32.

Koepka spoke about the injury after the round.

“I don’t know what it is. I’m struggling to grip the club with my ring finger and pinkie finger, so I can’t grip it,” Koepka told reporters. “So the club is kind of just, my fingers would come loose, it was kind of numb. I don’t know what the deal was, but hopefully we’ll figure it out.”

On a brighter note, Jackson Suber, a player we wrote up favorably after Round 1, took the lead after a closing birdie on the 18th hole. Saturday marked the third consecutive round of 66 or better for Suber. The recent equipment and golf ball changes he made have paid off, and he’s now in prime position for a career-changing round in Canada.

Two big names that have thrust themselves back into contention are Tommy Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark. Both made late charges at victory last week at the Memorial, and both sit just two shots behind Suber heading into Sunday.

Sunday’s forecast looks a bit gnarly, with inclement weather expected. As a result, we’ll see groups of three off split tees beginning at 10:30 a.m. ET. If the course plays soft and gets receptive, a 63 could be out there, opening opportunities for a deep pack of chasers.

Updated odds to win the RBC Canadian Open Via FanDuel:

• +290: Jackson Suber
• +480: Bud Cauley
• +550: Tommy Fleetwood
• +700: Wyndham Clark
• +1200: Sam Burns

Here is my top player to back, and a player to fade, heading into an unpredictable Sunday in Toronto.

Matt Fitzpatrick, Top 5 finish (+225)

We wrote about Matt Fitzpatrick yesterday at +3500 to win, and we are doubling down now on his top-5 odds at +225. His 4-under 66 on Saturday was his best round of the week, but a closer look reveals that it could have been so much better.

He’s currently in a tie for 12th place with plenty of room for improvement, given his obvious upside and potential. He gained strokes across all four major stat categories on Saturday, and Fitzpatrick continues to play smart, calculated golf. He hit 15 of 18 greens on Saturday and just needs a few mid-range putts to fall.

Equally impressive, and indicative of his precision, Fitzpatrick has made only one bogey in his last 36 holes. The opportunity to rise is certainly there, and the top-ranked player in the field will garner plenty of attention from his competitors on Sunday should he make a charge.

I’m unbothered by the potential of inclement weather, as Fitzpatrick is more than capable of carrying form in tough conditions. We’ve yet to see his best, and Sunday is typically the day when we see the cream rise to the top.

Player to fade: Sam Burns (+1200)

This fade is less about the skill of Sam Burns and more about the number. He entered each of the last two days as the favorite and was visibly frustrated on Saturday as his biggest weapon, the putter, let him down.

He’s still firmly in contention, but Burns had every opportunity on Saturday to seize control of this tournament, and the day ended in disappointment. He’ll tee off on Sunday only three strokes off the lead, but there are 18 total players within four shots of Suber.

The sheer number of potential winners in this tournament makes Burns a pass for me. I think too many bettors will gravitate toward Burns based on his final-round charge in 2025, when he shot 62. That feels unrepeatable and is likely siphoning a large portion of the value from his betting price.

This tournament has everything you could ask for heading into a final round: a bunched leaderboard, a few proven studs, and a pack of hungry breakthrough candidates. Plus, weather conditions that could create chaos. TPC Toronto produced a dramatic playoff finish in year one, and it may be ready to deliver another to PGA TOUR fans north of the border.

Joe Idone is a contributor to Read the Line.

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