Matt Fitzpatrick (-125) holds the 54-hole lead over Scottie Scheffler (+185) after an up-and-down, 3-under 68 in the third round of the RBC Heritage. Once again, the field took advantage of very favorable scoring conditions. Brian Harman (+2200) posted the low round of the day with an 8-under 63, his lowest score in 59 rounds at this event.

Despite Harman’s effort, he still sits four shots back of Fitzpatrick. In the final pairing, and three strokes off the lead, is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who fired a 7-under 64. Scheffler is seeking his first win since The American Express earlier this season.

After a runner-up finish last week at the Masters, Scheffler’s presence must be daunting to those towards the top.

Still, there are plenty of opportunities out there for the chasers to catch up and catch Fitzpatrick. Sunday will be different, but the opportunities will be there.

Unlike the first three rounds, Sunday’s forecast introduces a few variables that could factor into the outcome. It’s expected to be mostly cloudy early with minimal wind, but conditions should change as the afternoon progresses. The wind is expected to pick up, and there’s a slight chance of showers.

Different, yes. But enough to have a major impact on the tournament? I don’t think so. It does shift my approach slightly, especially when it comes to blindly betting round score unders. That said, with plenty of birdie opportunities still available, there’s reason to feel confident in Birdie or Better prop markets. If the lines aren’t adjusted too much, the over 4.5 Birdies or Better numbers have value.

Before getting into those, it’s worth acknowledging Fitzpatrick’s position. At his current price, it’s reasonable to believe he can close this out. The concern is that 54-hole leaders have not been converting at a high rate this season, and he’s dealing with Scheffler in the final group. Scheffler has gained more strokes in the fourth round than anyone in this field over his last 36 rounds. It feels like a spot to sit back, relax and let it play out.

Andrew Novak, Top 5 (+355, FanDuel)

Before you back the Brinks truck up, just know this is a small wager spot. But there’s value here, and Novak isn’t getting enough credit for what he’s shown this week. He has a real path to a big round on Sunday.

It’s also worth remembering that Novak finished runner-up here last season, losing to Justin Thomas in a playoff. He opened this week with a 65, and while the second round didn’t show on the scorecard, the strokes gained metrics were strong. He gained 2.10 strokes ball striking (DataGolf), and if not for losing 2.2 strokes putting, that round looks completely different, and he’s probably in the final group on Sunday.

However, he bounced right back with a 6-under 65 in the third round, this time pairing the ball striking with a much improved performance on the greens, gaining 1.31 strokes putting.

The course history is there, and the form is there. Novak has now put together multiple spike rounds at Harbour Town over the last two seasons. If he finds one more on Sunday, this number holds value for a top-five finish.

Patrick Cantlay, Top 5, including ties (+135, DraftKings)

I opted for the top-five price, including ties, over the dead-heat number, forfeiting the extra $0.50 for a bit more security. Currently T6, Cantlay’s game suggests he can continue to climb if the putter cooperates. Through three rounds, he’s gained 2.73 strokes tee-to-green, second only to leader Matt Fitzpatrick.

The issue this week has been on the greens. Cantlay has lost strokes putting in two of his three rounds, including -2.05 in Round 3. Even with that, he still posted a 3-under round, which speaks to how well the rest of his game is going.

His form is starting to come around. He has back-to-back top-15 finishes, including a T12 at the Masters despite struggling off the tee. Harbour Town has also been very kind to Cantlay. In eight appearances, he has five top-five finishes. Outside of one missed cut, his worst result is T13.

With Cantlay, you know what you’re getting. Fairways and greens. It’s always about the putter. If it gets hot, he goes low. He’s in a great spot heading into Sunday. No real pressure, just outside the top five and in position to come out firing in the final round.