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Draws and Fades: Buy big-name dip after Round 1 at Valspar Championship

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Draws and Fades

Highlights | Round 1 | Valspar Championship | 2026

Highlights | Round 1 | Valspar Championship | 2026

    Written by Jimmy Reinman

    With the first round complete at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, there’s a clearer picture of who’s ready to contend on the demanding layout and who may be headed for a weekend at the beach to end their Florida Swing.

    Sungjae Im seized control in the calmer morning wave with a 7-under 64, an encouraging sign for the returning Korean. Im posted his number before winds swept through the course, stalling many marquee names, including Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland.

    The Valspar Championship has quietly become one of the more difficult stops on the PGA TOUR schedule, with winning scores often landing in the low teens and occasionally even single digits. That creates an opportunity to jump on proven players whose odds may have drifted after a sub-optimal opening round.

    Let's take a look at the odds.

    Odds to win the Valspar Championship via DraftKings Sportsbook:

    • Sungjae Im (+480)
    • Xander Schauffele (+740)
    • Matt Fitzpatrick (+990)
    • Davis Thompson (+1175)
    • Jacob Bridgeman (+1350)
    • Pierceson Coody (+2050)
    • Brandt Snedeker (+2250)
    • Jordan Spieth (+2500)
    • Alex Smalley (+2800)
    • Aaron Rai (+2900)
    • Corey Conners (+3000)

    With 54 holes remaining, let’s add three names to our betting slip heading into the second round:

    Jacob Bridgeman (+1350)

    My pre-tournament pick is still plenty available after posting a 3-under 68 in the opening round, perhaps even more so as many of the big names around him failed to get off to such a strong start. With how consistent Bridgeman has been this year, I see him continuing to plod his way deeper into red numbers while those currently above him take some detours.


    Jacob Bridgeman hits 176-yard approach to 10 feet, sets up birdie on No. 12 at Valspar

    Jacob Bridgeman hits 176-yard approach to 10 feet, sets up birdie on No. 12 at Valspar


    Bridgeman was one of the few players with zero bogeys in their first 18 holes. The FedExCup leader hit 14 greens, good for T2 in the field, and converted all four scrambling opportunities. There is a reason he is the TOUR leader in Strokes Gained: Total, and he showed last week at THE PLAYERS Championship that his game travels coast-to-coast.

    Viktor Hovland (+3000)

    The defending champion’s scorecard doesn’t tell the full story. Hovland got off to a great start ball-striking-wise, but had some mishaps around and on the greens that led to his three bogeys, leaving him at just 1-under for the day. That presents a potential buying opportunity on a proven contender, taking the discounted price for a thoroughbred in the field.


    Viktor Hovland hits 144-yard approach to 5 feet, makes birdie on No. 18 at Valspar

    Viktor Hovland hits 144-yard approach to 5 feet, makes birdie on No. 18 at Valspar


    In last year’s victory, Hovland also opened with a 1-under 70 before closing 67-69-67 to win at 11-under par. With his issues primarily on the short game side, I think the clean-up crew will forge a similar path for the Norwegian at or near the winner’s circle by Sunday.

    Justin Thomas, Top 10 (+485)

    Finally, we round out our stable with Thomas, whose 1-over 72 may not stand out, but there were positives just beneath the surface. Thomas had it rolling before a double bogey on No. 16 sent him above par, thanks to a wayward tee shot. However, Thomas still gained strokes off the tee, an area that has often held him back.


    Justin Thomas knocks tee shot to 10 feet, sets up birdie on No. 13 at Valspar

    Justin Thomas knocks tee shot to 10 feet, sets up birdie on No. 13 at Valspar


    In a spooky-similar situation to Hovland, Thomas started his week here last year with a 2-over 73 before rounds of 65-66 on the weekend earned him the solo runner-up. He is still rolling the rock excellently, so now is the time to buy the initial dip and back the rebound, even if in the top-10 market at nearly 5-1 odds.

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