The opening round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard is in the books, with Daniel Berger surging out to a three-shot lead. His opening-round 63 was more than eight strokes better than the field average and serves as the second-best round of Berger’s career in terms of strokes gained.

The chase pack is being formed by some elite talent, with Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young both within four shots of Berger. Xander Schauffele compiled one of the few bogey-free rounds at Bay Hill Club & Lodge en route to his 4-under 68.

The scoring average for the day was 71.69 (-0.31), but the players who went out in the morning saw much better scoring conditions, with the average eclipsing 1-under as a group. As with the usual Florida forecast, there is always an expected bump in difficulty as afternoon winds roll into the area.

Collin Morikawa to win (+670 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you weren’t fortunate enough to wager on Morikawa before the tournament, you’re getting another great opportunity here. Morikawa is playing the best golf we’ve seen from him in years, and he’s doing it the way he wants – through elite ball-striking.

These gains date back to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where Morikawa gained 9.68 strokes on approach and eventually hoisted the trophy on Sunday. He was splendid at Riviera, gaining another 3.4 strokes on approach over four days and earning a T7 finish.

In the opening round at Bay Hill, he gained nearly four strokes on approach and finished eagle-birdie-birdie to put a bow on his opening-round 66. Shockingly, it seems like he left a few out there. He hit his drive into the water on No. 11 and missed four putts inside 9 feet. He’s already earned a win this year and is in position to contend again this weekend.

Cameron Young top-10 finish (-116)

Despite a three-putt bogey on the final hole, Young was spectacular around Bay Hill in the opening round. He hit five approaches inside 10 feet and converted three of them. He was dialed in with the ball-striking categories, gaining more than two strokes both off the tee and on approach.

His +2.2 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee will end up being a top-10 driving round in his young career. He displayed proficiency in both distance and accuracy in the opening round. He only missed two fairways while finishing ninth in driving distance for the day. That’s a combination that allowed him to pile up birdie opportunities.

He turned the corner after the opening round at Riviera and has gained at least 1.5 strokes to the field in four straight rounds. This is a venue that should set up really well for his game, and there’s plenty of opportunity to stay near the top of the leaderboard.

Corey Conners top-20 finish (-104)

His opening-round 69 was the 25th round Conners has played at Bay Hill and the 15th time he’s gained at least one stroke on the field. The most impressive part of his opening round was that it was bogey-free, a great sign regarding the control he has in his game.

He’s been a positive putter over the last five years at Bay Hill, which is usually the one facet of his game that he struggles with. He barely broke that mark again Thursday, picking up 0.214 strokes on the putting surfaces.

Conners will be rewarded for his elite driving accuracy, which he displayed by hitting 12 of 14 fairways in the opening round. Playing out of the fairway is worth nearly half a stroke at Bay Hill and will only become more valuable as the week goes on and pin positions become more difficult.

He’s finished inside the top 20 in 44% of his TOUR starts dating back to the start of 2025, one of the highest rates on TOUR. Now already in position, there’s optimism he’ll be able to accomplish that feat yet again.

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