Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge will not be for the faint of heart as it plays host to this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. The venue played as the third-most difficult non-major course in 2025, with a scoring average of 72.577 – a half-stroke over par for the field.

There’s really nowhere to hide at Bay Hill, since every facet of the game is incredibly difficult. The penalty for missing the fairway is, on average, 0.42 strokes to the field. That’s the third-highest “Cost of Rough” on the regular TOUR schedule.

An error off the tee compounds with the approach shot. Bay Hill had the sixth-most difficult greens to hit last year, and the proximity from the rough is nearly twice as wide as the proximity from the fairway.

When your golfers inevitably miss the green – and you see where this is going – Bay Hill presents a difficult scrambling opportunity, and it actually becomes more difficult the closer you get to the hole. That’s right: Since Bay Hill greens are often guarded with thick rough, it’s more difficult to scramble from inside 10 yards than it is from outside 30 yards – relative to other courses. The speed at which golfers need to accelerate their club through thick rough doesn’t mesh well with the need to advance the ball just a few yards. Diabolical.

As if all that wasn’t enough, Bay Hill gives you fits from the ranges at which you’d expect to make putts. From 6 feet and from 9 feet, the course ranks ninth and fifth, respectively, as most difficult to jar putts. Those are often ranges where TOUR players should be making 40% to 60% of putts, but that’ll be a much lower rate this week.

Collin Morikawa has asserted his presence in 2026, with a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro and a T7 at The Genesis Invitational. The most exciting part is that he’s doing it “his way” and looks like the best version of himself. Since the start of 2026, he’s gained 1.08 strokes per round on approach and 1.61 per round from tee to green. Those are both firmly inside the top 10 on TOUR. The question remains, as it always has, whether the putter will cooperate. It’s worth noting that he’s gaining 1.106 strokes putting over the eight rounds that contributed to those high finishes, so he’s not completely dependent on the flatstick. Coming off a runner-up finish last year, there’s optimism for Morikawa to improve on that finishing position and win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His odds to do just that are +3000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The missed cut at Riviera was a shocking result for Russell Henley, who hadn’t missed a cut since the PGA Championship last year. That uncharacteristic result shouldn’t overshadow the three top-20 finishes he’s had in 2026, with excellent metrics along the way. Not only is Henley the defending champion, but he has a T4 finish in 2024 and a T13 finish in 2022. He’s gained strokes tee-to-green in five straight trips to this event, and there’s little reason to think he won’t bounce back with a solid performance this week. Consider Henley’s top-10 number at +210.

We are learning that Jake Knapp doesn’t have a “type” when it comes to courses. In five events this year, he’s earned five top-11 finishes across a variety of venues and setups. And now, at least on paper, it looks like Bay Hill would be the best course for Knapp this year. He’s not the most accurate player off the tee, but he’s long – ranking 11th in driving distance. If he does miss the fairway, his ability to extract himself from the rough is elite. He’s 12th in rough proximity, compared to just 85th when playing from the fairway. Speaking of rough, no one scrambles from the cabbage better than Knapp, who saves par 83% of the time. There’s no reason to think this top-10 run stops now; he’s +270 to achieve the feat.

Rickie Fowler has found his form, led by the putter. He’s gained more than three strokes putting in each of his last three starts, but he’s not completely reliant on that skill set. He’s added a total of 10.25 strokes in the ball-striking categories over his last 16 rounds. The short of it: Fowler is playing some of the best golf we’ve seen from him in quite some time. This is an event he has played routinely, with decent results. He’s made every cut since 2014 and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight trips. In a field of this size, it’s reasonable to think Fowler could find himself inside the top 20 at +138.

The average winner’s odds this year have been +5200, with Scheffler’s victory at The American Express serving as the only winner shorter than +3900. If you think that longshot trend might continue, it’s worth taking a close look at Akshay Bhatia. He’s finding solace on the putting surfaces, gaining over nine strokes putting in his last twelve rounds. That has translated into three straight top-16 finishes. He’s excellent with long approaches, which Bay Hill will require, but I’m most attracted to the fact that he’s a winner. Already with two wins on the PGA TOUR and another on the Korn Ferry Tour shows that he can handle the pressure when required. DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists his odds to win at +6000.

For resources related to problem gambling, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.