PGA TOURLeaderboardWatch & ListenNewsFedExCupSchedulePlayersStatsFantasy & BettingSignature EventsComcast Business TOUR TOP 10Aon Better DecisionsDP World Tour Eligibility RankingsHow It WorksPGA TOUR TrainingTicketsShopPGA TOURPGA TOUR ChampionsKorn Ferry TourPGA TOUR AmericasLPGA TOURDP World TourPGA TOUR University
Aug 1, 2024

Draws and Fades: Top three or bust means aggressive moves to come at Paris Olympics

6 Min Read

Draws and Fades

Loading...
    Written by Ben Everill @BEverillGolfbet

    There are plenty of twists and turns to come at Le Golf National after an exciting opening round in the men’s Olympic golf competition.

    Unlike most weeks in professional golf, where the monetary return is tied to how far up a leaderboard one finishes, this week offers just gold, silver or bronze. In other words, finishing fourth brings the same reward as 60th.

    As a result, we can expect those players who find themselves chasing the lead to play aggressive golf. Birdies or bust.

    So while Hideki Matsuyama has taken great strides towards the medal podium with an opening round 8-under 63, he is far from banking gold just yet.

    Sitting two shots behind the Japanese star is reigning Olympic gold medalist and recent Open and PGA champion American Xander Schauffele – the new betting favorite at +320 after his reasonably tidy 65.

    South Korean Tom Kim, Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann are tied third at 5-under while American and pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler is joined by Sweden’s Alex Noren, New Zealand’s Ryan Fox, Austria’s Sepp Straka, Great Britain’s Tommy Fleetwood, South Africa’s Erik van Rooyen, Finland’s Sami Valimaki and Spain’s Jon Rahm at 4-under.

    Lightning pockets forced a couple of late delays in the opening round but the forecast for the remaining three days appears clear.

    Le Golf National showed its stripes and gave us an idea of the strategy for players moving forward. The tough holes predominantly come early and late in the round with the green light through the middle.

    But a handful of water carries and penalty areas are ready to swallow errant shots turning birdie holes into big numbers.

    The field averaged over par on holes 1,2 and 4 in the early going and did the same on 15-18. The only other over par hole was the par-4 12th while the other 10 holes played at or under par. Look for players to take dead aim at the soft greens in the middle of the round.

    The updated outright odds for the gold medal from BetMGM are as follows:

    • +320: Xander Schauffele (-6, second)
    • +450: Scottie Scheffler (-4, T6)
    • +650: Hideki Matsuyama (-8, first)
    • +1000: Jon Rahm (-4, T6)
    • +1200: Rory McIlroy (-3, T14), Joaquin Niemann (-5, T3)
    • +1400: Tom Kim (-5, T3)
    • +1800: Tommy Fleetwood (-4, T6)
    • +2000: Ludvig Åberg (-3, T14)

    DRAWS

    Xander Schauffele +320 outright via BetMGM (-6, 2nd)

    I picked Schauffele to create history as a double gold medal winner before a ball was hit so there is no reason to jump off now after a very solid start from the recent Open Championship winner. Of course we’d love to see juicier odds given there are 54 holes to play but we actually got a little juice back thanks to a late bogey on the 17th hole.

    At just 24th in SG: Off the Tee, 18th in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Putting in a 60-man field there is still a lot of improvement room in his game. I see the opener as a little “rust” removal from his celebrations after Royal Troon and if he can shoot 65 without his best, that’s danger for the rest.


    Xander Schauffele chips in for birdie to start his day at Olympic Men's Golf


    “Chip-in on 1 was pretty lucky. Skanked an iron out to the right. Then skanked another iron on 2 way right to the pin, was able to get up-and-down and pulled a drive on 3. So it wasn't sort of the dream, stripy start that you envision as a golfer. But I'm happy to sort of ride the ship in and get away with what could have been worse.,” Schauffele said.

    “I missed a few putts coming in. But it's Thursday. I'm not really sweating it too much.”

    Alex Noren +3300 outright via BetMGM (-4, T6); +320 for Top 5 via FanDuel

    While I’m feeling confident in Schauffele as a gold medalist there is still significant value down the board if you think someone can go low playing aggressive golf. One guy sitting just four back with great course history is Noren.

    The 2018 winner of the Open de France at Le Golf National has cashed T18 or better in five of eight career visits, three of which were top 10 paydays, and he was also able to grab two points from three starts in the 2018 Ryder Cup for Europe.

    He was second in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and 10th in SG: Putting but unless he improves his rank of 51st in SG: Approach a charge won’t happen.

    “I don't think it's easy. But if you hit a good shot, you're going to get it close. Some courses we play when it's firm, you hit a good shot and it's 25 feet, 30 feet. Here, if you actually hit a 5-iron straight at the pin, it will stop. So the softness of the greens after the rain helps tremendously,” Noren said.

    “But I think everybody is underestimating the toughness of the actual course. So if you start seeing more wind, more firmness, it's a totally different course but today, it's probably the easiest I've seen it.”

    FADES

    *Hideki Matsuyama +650 outright via BetMGM (-8, 1st)

    After falling just short of a medal in his home Olympics, Matsuyama is back for revenge and showed some of his vintage ball striking in the opening round. As a former major winner he’s no stranger to performing on the big stage and as such becomes a serious contender to go wire-to-wire even with the big names lining up behind him. He hit all but three fairways and nailed 16 greens on Thursday so if you feel he can maintain the rage these are nice odds … BUT …

    To get to where he is on this leaderboard he ranked second in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, a clear outlier on his season stats. He ranks 133rd on the PGA TOUR in this metric and I am expecting this to hold him back from winning the gold medal.

    *I do however like him from here for a podium finish and as such would consider the near even money, -105 for a Top five with FanDuel.

    “Today's result was good. So I'll take that as a positive. My putts went in the cup well today. My shots went into the fairway, too. So I had a lot of chances, so I'm happy,” Matsuyama said.


    Hideki Matsuyama cards fourth consecutive birdie on No. 10 at Olympic Men's Golf


    Jon Rahm +1000 outright via BetMGM (-4, T6)

    This one could bite me on the backside because the former U.S. Open and Masters champion certainly has the firepower to rocket up the leaderboard, as his two eagles and four birdies on Thursday showed! But I pay more attention to the double bogey and two bogeys he also carded on his way to his 67.

    Ranking 38th in SG: Approach and 33rd in SG: Putting won’t cut it for a gold medal. He is a player to monitor in the next two rounds as the type who could storm home from far back for a bronze medal though. Let’s check in on his top 5 odds on Saturday night.

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call, or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

    Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.