Cameron Young’s time at the top could be shortlived

Heading into the opening round on Thursday at the John Deere Classic, the feeling was it would be the day to go low with the rain that had been falling on the day prior. Jonas Blixt took advantage of the soft conditions and opened with a 9-under 62.

However, scoring was actually a full stroke lower on Friday in the wake of some overnight showers and some moisture continuing to fall during play. Cameron Young fell right into line with the scoring pattern, shooting 65 on Thursday and following it up with a 64 on Friday. At 13 under through two rounds, Young currently holds a two-shot lead over Adam Schenk, Garrick Higgo, and Brendon Todd.

Also, in line with history at the tournament, where 23 players have made this venue the site of their first ever TOUR win, including five in the last 11 editions, this too would be Young's first TOUR victory.

Several other players looking for their first TOUR win currently find themselves in the top 10 on the leaderboard through two rounds. Texas Tech sensation, Ludvig Aberg is three shots back at 10 under. He was one shot off the lead at the halfway point last week in Detroit. William Mouw is also 10 under with Denny McCarthy and Kevin Roy. Mark Hubbard sits at nine under while eight players including previous TOUR winners, Chris Kirk, Kevin Streelman, and former John Deere champion, Lucas Glover round out the top 10, five shots back at eight under.

In total, 16 players sit five shots back or less, off of the pace being set by Young heading into the weekend.

Aberg was a "Fade" for us in this column last week. He was playing spectacularly off the tee but was shaky on approach and with the putter. So far, he's tightened some of that up this week, ranking sixth in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach. Causing concern, however, is our leader Young. As expected, he's getting it done off the tee. After 36 holes, he's sixth for SG: Off the Tee but 37th for SG: Approach. His putting has been excellent, gaining over four strokes on the field but I wonder if that is too good for a guy who is 177th on TOUR in SG: Putting.

With so many players in contention who happen to be trying to capture their first-ever TOUR victory, it throws a bit of psychology into the handicap. Who will be able to handle the pressure and who will succumb to the new-found spotlight? It isn't easy for anyone on TOUR to close the deal but I prefer a player who has been through that pressure cooker before - even if it hasn't resulted in victory - experience in that situation is valuable. The John Deere Classic has been a hotbed for first-time winners, as noted, but I will be looking for someone who at least has built up some scar tissue to persevere this weekend.

DRAWS

Adam Schenk (+650 to win)

Let's first point out that this number is probably a little short and of course, it is not always the best wagering practice to take bad numbers. I'd like to see closer to +850 here. However, I believe the oddsmakers understand that this is one of the classier players at the top of the leaderboard - and a player who has had quite a bit of success in this situation this season - and at this particular tournament. Schenk has two prior top 6 finishes at the John Deere. He has two runner-up finishes this season; one was a playoff loss at the Charles Schwab Classic. He is also coming off of a recent seventh place finish at the Memorial and a seventh last week in Detroit. That is the kind of scar tissue and experience I was referring to earlier. Everything has been solid in his game so far through two rounds and I don’t see any red flags. I think he’s going to be right there in the end again this week and may finally kick the door down – for what, yes, would be his first TOUR win.

Garrick Higgo (+1200 to win)

Much better value with the number here - on a guy that is tied with Schenk and has a TOUR victory. What led me to Higgo was the way he's gotten to 11 under so far. He's No. 1 in this field for SG: Off the Tee and second for SG: Tee to Green. He's fourth for Driving Accuracy and in Greens in Regulation. At the same time, he is 44th for SG: Putting, only gaining less than half a stroke on the field with the flat stick. He really has nowhere to go but up with his putting. If he does so, which I believe has a good chance of happening, he'll be there on Sunday - and as I noted, he's been in this situation before and was able to close the deal.

FADES

Cameron Young (+188 to win)

I hinted at this earlier and I'm going to go ahead and make it official as a player I will be staying away from this weekend. Cameron Young is one of the best players in the world. He's contended at major championships, let alone a standard TOUR event. But the form has been off for a while now. In his seven starts since The Masters, he has finished 51-59-CUT-CUT-57-32-60. Because of his past, he is being given a great deal of credit here in the number but while I expect his excellent play off the tee to continue, I have issues with his below average approach play - for someone that is 13 under - and his off the charts putting. I can't imagine the player ranked 177th on TOUR in SG: Putting is going to maintain this pace on the greens for the next two days.

Denny McCarthy (+750)

This is another one of the bigger names toward the top of the leaderboard that is probably being priced a lot on reputation. Let's remember, Young and McCarthy were the two shortest priced players on the odds board pre-tournament. Furthermore, McCarthy is No. 1 in this field for SG: Putting through two rounds. No surprise, he's a great putter but from here it can only get worse. What's more, is he is actually losing nearly a stroke to the field on approach. His putter is carrying him. If the rest of his game can't provide support, I don't feel his current progress can be sustained.