Running with Rick: Accuracy is the name of the game at Wyndham Championship

In the blink of an eye, the PGA TOUR’s regular season is coming to a conclusion at the Wyndham Championship. The top 70 in the FedExCup standings will punch their tickets to the FedEx St. Jude Championship next week, with their sights set on TOUR Championship glory. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves; there is work to be done this week.

Sedgefield Country Club will once again host the regular-season finale, as it has every year since 2008. This beautiful, tree-lined Donald Ross design requires accuracy off the tee and precision on approaches. Statistically speaking, Sedgefield has an average “Cost of Miss” hovering right around 0.4 strokes for every fairway missed. That’s one of the highest rates on the TOUR schedule. That’s why you’ve seen a plethora of winners who certainly boast more accuracy than distance off the tee.

The field is stout, with plenty of players teeing it up for a chance to extend their season. Those looking to continue on in Memphis will need to battle each of the last four champions: Cameron Young, Aaron Rai, Lucas Glover and Tom Kim.

It hasn’t been a banner year for Davis Thompson, but he’s starting to gallop as we come down the home stretch. With only three top-10 finishes this year, it’s worth noting that he’s earned two of them in his last two starts. Over those eight rounds, he gained more than 14 strokes from tee to green, which is indicative of solid and predictable play. That’s also the part of his game that most closely matches his DNA, and it shows when Thompson is putting together his best results.

As we head to the wire, this course horse gets a boost by heading back to Sedgefield. In the last three years, Thompson has earned T22-T12-T11 finishes. That equates to a 1.8 strokes gained average, which is the third-best mark in this field across those three years, behind only Rai and J.T. Poston. He’s trending in the right direction and heading to the best course on the schedule for him. I’ll be clicking his top-20 number, which is currently priced at +220 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Blades Brown has teed it up 22 times this year, with eight of those starts coming on the PGA TOUR and the other 14 on the Korn Ferry Tour. Across both circuits, he’s compiled an impressive resume and statistical profile. For the year, he has six top-10 finishes, including one in each of his last two starts. In his last 12 starts, he’s finished inside the top 25 in all but one!

His statistical profile is even more impressive, as he’s gained strokes in all four categories for three straight events. It becomes even more sustainable upon a deeper dive, considering Brown has gained at least five strokes from tee to green in each of his last five starts. Nearly any way you slice or dice Brown’s season, it comes out looking positive.

His situation is unique, as he’s been earning points on both tours this year, giving him a variety of pathways to lock up his PGA TOUR card in the near future. The one thing that takes care of that is playing well, which is exactly what I expect Brown to do again this week. I’m most excited about his top-10 finishing-position market, which can currently be found at +470.

There are some seriously positive signs coming out of Hideki Matsuyama's game right now. From a simple results-based view, he’s earned four straight top-15 finishes, including back-to-back top-five finishes. That four-week stretch coincides beautifully with his improvement off the tee, where he’s gained 7.6 strokes across those 16 rounds. That has kept him from making big numbers and allowed him to lean into his strengths. Those strengths include his elite approach and around-the-green play, which he has put to good use this season.

His results at Sedgefield have been completely hit or miss. In nine trips, he has finished inside the top 20 four times and missed the cut in his other five trips. That’s very much on par for Matsuyama, who tends to be one of the most volatile players on TOUR.

Considering that volatility, I want to be rewarded for the risk he presents. That encourages me to live at the top of the betting board, in this case with a top-five wager on Matsuyama at +510.

We haven’t seen Tom Kim play golf this well since the 2022 season, which happens to be the year he won at the Wyndham Championship. In that victory, Kim gained 12.54 strokes putting, which remains one of the best putting performances of the ShotLink era.

He won’t need to be as good on the greens this week to get the job done because his approach play has been so stellar leading into this event. Kim has gained 0.69 strokes per round on approach, which is the third-best mark in this field for 2026, behind only Alex Fitzpatrick and Ben Kohles.

Now he gets to be rewarded for his driving accuracy, precise approach play and capable putting at a venue with plenty of great vibes. I’m picking Tom Kim to win the Wyndham Championship at +3800.

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