Running with Rick: Matt Fitzpatrick can bolster Player of the Year case with British Open title

Just like that, the last major championship of the year is upon us. The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale for the first time since 2017, when Jordan Spieth was victorious, and for the 11th time in tournament history.

Since 2017, the course has undergone major work. For example, the par-3 14th hole no longer exists. The previous par-5 15th has been remodeled into the new 14th hole, and a completely new par 3 has been added as the new 15th hole.

Along with that, there have been countless tweaks to fairway lines and bunker shapes to create better visuals and more challenges for the best players in the world.

For me, the routing is one of the most impressive features of Royal Birkdale. The opening nine presents scoring opportunities before the difficulty ramps up on the second nine. The directional changes of the holes ensure that players will need to play shots in all wind directions.

Like many links courses, the areas around the greens will often separate those who have a chance to hoist the claret jug from those who do not. With Mother Nature always lurking to play her role in this championship, there are many variables to consider at The Open. Let’s dive into a few golfers who have a chance to offer value this week.

If the season ended right now, Matt Fitzpatrick might very well be your PGA TOUR Player of the Year. He’s sporting a +1.66 strokes gained per round rate, which is the third best on TOUR. He’s well-rounded, with roughly half of that coming from his ball-striking and the other half coming from his short game.

He’s piled up eight top-10 finishes and has three wins to boot. He nearly won again last week in Scotland, and if not for a few missed short putts on Sunday, he could have added a fourth victory to his resume this year. He ended up finishing T3 with a staggering +7.70 strokes gained on approach.

With the short-game challenges that the field will face at Royal Birkdale this week, Fitzpatrick should be able to separate himself, considering he’s one of the best in the world around the greens. That skill set has been just one of the reasons he’s had plenty of success at The Open in his career. He’s made six straight cuts and has four top-26 finishes during that run, with his best finish, a T4, coming last year at Royal Portrush.

Already a major champion and decorated winner this season, Fitzpatrick has proven that he has what it takes to win this week at The Open. His odds to win at DraftKings Sportsbook are +2100.

I admittedly had concerns about Patrick Reed's mini-slump when he missed the cut at the U.S. Open, finished T45 at the Italian Open and then missed the cut at the BMW International Open. That skid really halted the momentum he had built during a stellar start to 2026.

However, I was impressed with the way he played at the Genesis Scottish Open last week, finishing T12 and gaining strokes on approach, around the green and with the putter. That’s the perfect stat profile for Reed, who has never been a great driver of the ball. He’s proficient at leaning into his strengths, which is what I saw at The Renaissance Club.

I’ve seen enough to hop back on the bandwagon. Reed has made the cut in 14 of his last 17 major championships and already has two top-15s this year alone – at the Masters and PGA Championship.

His career +1.31 strokes gained per round rate at majors is one of the best in history. It ranks him right between Retief Goosen and Jim Furyk. He also has a higher top-20 rate than both of those players and the eighth-best top-20 rate of all players since 1997.

It’s clear that The Open has not been the best major of his career, but there are enough reasons to be optimistic this week. I’ll be focused on Patrick Reed’s top-20 number, which is +184, but I wouldn’t look past his higher finishing positions as well.

I find Justin Rose to be one of the most fascinating golfers in the wagering world. His results are so volatile that they create an interesting dynamic in terms of his pricing on a week-to-week basis.

Over the last 10 years of major championships, Rose has 13 top-10 finishes, which is the sixth most of anyone during that period. He also has 12 missed cuts, which is the highest rate for any golfer who has played as many majors as he has during that stretch. He’s a true “boom or bust” style of player, which demands respect from his potential backers but allows his odds to often slip to lengths they should not.

This year has been outstanding for Rose. He finished third at the Masters, T10 at the PGA Championship and T11 at the U.S. Open. In fact, he’s been the third-best player in the majors this year – gaining 2.44 strokes per round – behind only Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns.

He’ll enter this week in form, with four top-25 finishes in his last five starts, a stretch that includes the two most recent majors. Since Rose possesses ample risk, I want to be rewarded, so I am focused on his top-10 market, which can currently be found at +355.

The Open has always been a place to embrace a little bit of chaos. There have been weather waves that have wiped out significant portions of the field, and there are always debates about how “fair” a golf course might actually be. For that reason, it’s worth considering a few longshots for deep runs.

My favorite longshot is Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, who has had an up-and-down season. This has been his first year with a PGA TOUR card, and while he’s made the cut in 10 of his 13 starts, there have been few highlight finishes. His best finish is technically a T4 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but that was a team event, so his best individual finish is a T19 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Despite that, he’s shown plenty of promise. He kicked off the year with a win at the Australian Open at the infamous Royal Melbourne Golf Club. He’s gained strokes off the tee in all but one start this year, and his putter has improved significantly as of late. He’s gained strokes with the flatstick in four of his last six starts.

There’s no shortage of talent in his game, and his top-20 position being priced at +540 is too long for me to pass up.

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