Running with Rick: Putting change could yield more returns for Justin Thomas at Charles Schwab Challenge

The TOUR will round out its quick trip through Texas this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where birdies will be at a premium compared to last week.

Colonial Country Club usually offers a level of defense through tree-lined fairways and strategically placed water features. The winning score has averaged just 12.1 strokes under par across the past seven years, with single digits good enough in two of those editions.

The field is headlined by Ludvig Åberg (+1100), but he’s not the only star teeing it up this week. He’ll be joined by Russell Henley (+2000), Robert MacIntyre (+2100), Rickie Fowler (+2400) and Justin Thomas (+2600).

While that is the top of the board, there are still plenty of talented players farther down offering value across a wide range of prices. Here are a few of my favorite plays for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

When he’s at his best, Max Greyserman is a two-tool player who beats his peers with his driver and his putter. That’s a fairly rare combination on the PGA TOUR, as most players don’t excel with both the longest and the shortest club in their bag.

Greyserman is starting to get back to that profile, and the results are following suit. He’s improved his finishing position in each of his last four starts: T38, T31, T14 and T9. During that stretch, he’s also improved his Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee number in each of those starts, so this is all passing the sniff test of sustainability.

While his putter still has room to improve, we cannot overlook the fact that Greyserman gained 11.2 strokes on approach last week, which was the best approach week of his career. His third-best career approach week came at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year, so Greyserman is looking to continue this momentum at a venue where he’s already had plenty of success. He’s my pick to win at +6200, available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

If you prefer an outright option closer to the top of the board, Justin Thomas has the sixth-shortest odds at +2600 and has unlocked a new facet of his game.

It was eight rounds ago when Thomas changed putter styles to mimic the version used by Cameron Young. The returns have been immediate, as Thomas has gained strokes putting in all eight rounds, to the tune of +10.52 in aggregate.

That’s always been the missing piece for Thomas, who turned those excellent putting weeks into a 13th-place finish at the Truist Championship and a T4 at the PGA Championship. I wouldn’t have a problem clicking Thomas’ name in the outright market, considering he’s a 16-time PGA TOUR winner. However, I prefer him as a top-five play, which can be found at +520.

Speaking of missing pieces, there is only one missing piece for J.J. Spaun, and it happens to be his play on the greens. Spaun has been magnificent from tee-to-green, gaining more than 27 strokes in his last eight starts.

He’s only gained strokes putting in three of those eight starts, but when he has, the results have been elite. It started with a T24 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Then he captured a victory at the Valero Texas Open before rounding it out with a T5 at the Truist Championship.

If Spaun gains even one stroke, he’s likely to be attached to the first page of the leaderboard. That’s exactly what happened at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year. Spaun gained 1.4 strokes putting for the week and finished T6. I’ll deploy him in the top-10 market this week, where he is currently priced at +290.

Has Tony Finau found something? He gained more than 4.5 strokes off the tee last week, which was his best driving performance in more than two years. He followed that up with another 3.2 on approach and 2.5 around the green. It was a tee-to-green performance reminiscent of “vintage Tony.”

It’s certainly possible that this was an outlier performance, but you can’t fake these numbers in a PGA TOUR event over four days. I’m more convinced that he has found something that could be sustainable in the near future. If that’s true, the timing couldn’t be better for Finau to get to Colonial.

He’s gained 1.42 strokes per round in his 34 career rounds at Colonial, which is the best of anyone in this field with at least five starts. Finau comes with high levels of risk, so I’ll settle into the top-20 market, where he is currently being priced at +250 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

As you scroll down the betting board, don’t scroll past Zach Bauchou, who is putting together a run of solid play right now. His last four events have all been T28 or better, with a seriously impressive T6 last week. His finish in Dallas was a “complete gain,” where he gained strokes in all four categories, displaying a proper well-rounded assault on TPC Craig Ranch.

His last eight rounds alone have produced more than 13 strokes gained in tee-to-green play. He’ll make his debut at Colonial this week, where he is +365 to finish inside the top 20.

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