Running with Rick: No shortage of options atop odds board for PGA Championship
7 Min Read

Running with Rick: Three players from three betting tiers who can win PGA Championship
Donald Ross designed countless world-class golf courses during his lifetime, but Aronimink Golf Club might be his crown jewel. It sits outside of Philadelphia and provides that “old-school Northeast” aesthetic with asymmetric holes and intense bunkering. It’s a staple in the PGA of America’s rotation and has hosted a variety of elite events over the years. Its versatility has allowed it to host a PGA Championship, a Senior PGA Championship and a Women’s PGA Championship – all in the last 25 years.
When standing on the tee box, golfers will be challenged by holes that are almost all straight in nature, but they won’t look that way. The offset bunkering and reverse camber on many fairways make the holes appear to move much more than they actually do. While the optical illusion may not reflect reality, the physics are certainly real. Multiple shot shapes, with proper ground spin, will help determine whether your tee shot remains in the fairway or rolls through into the challenging rough.
The green complexes are heavily protected with bunkers, and they don’t offer much assistance in reading putts. The breaks are obvious but subtle, if that makes sense. The movement is definitely there, but the shoulders, nooks and crannies make it difficult to determine how much break and in which direction.
There is no shortage of elite talent in the field, obviously! However, the meteoric rise of Cameron Young, along with the stellar play of Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy this season, has created an interesting odds board. At the time of writing, there are eight different golfers who are +2000 or shorter. That is the most players priced in that range at a PGA Championship in at least six years.
While the top portion of the board is crowded, the man who sits alone is still Scottie Scheffler. Let’s start with his historic results in major championships. Since 2022, he has won four majors, which is 23.5% of his starts. When he’s not winning, he’s almost certainly in contention, as evidenced by his 52.9% top-five rate during that same stretch. He’s the only man in the world to finish inside the top five more often than not across that time period.
His play coming in is dialed, particularly from tee-to-green. Over his last three starts, all runner-up finishes, he has gained a staggering 30.26 strokes to the field in that category. During his career, he’s played in 25 major championships, and he has never lost strokes to the field from tee-to-green. He’s the rare combination of high floor and high ceiling, which is why he’s my pick to win at +340, currently available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If not Scheffler, then who? There are definitely cases to be made for Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele, but I’m going just a little further down the board to Ludvig Åberg. I, too, have nightmares of his finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, where he let one slip away, but I can forgive quickly.

Golfbet Roundtable: Making picks for the PGA Championship
Over his last six starts, he’s compiled four top-five finishes across a variety of venues and in the deepest fields that golf can offer. This will be his 10th major championship start, and he already has five top-25 finishes because his skill set is even more valuable on difficult setups. Åberg’s ball-striking numbers last week were divine – he ranked inside the top 10 both off-the-tee and on approach. His odds to win the PGA Championship are +2000.
Over the last few weeks, Adam Scott has started slow but then flashed brilliance as he flew up the leaderboard in later rounds. He was at the bottom of the leaderboard after the opening round in Miami, but battled back, had the best weekend of anyone in the field and finished T4. He started slow again last week, shooting a 76 (5 over) at Quail Hollow before posting rounds of 69-66-66.
The Aussie is gaining over 1.10 strokes per round this season, which is his best mark since 2019. He’s very long off the tee and is one of the better iron players in this field. He’s trending at the right time, and this week will mark his 99th consecutive major championship, so experience certainly won’t be a problem. I believe in his upside and prefer the top-10 market at +415.
We haven’t seen Patrick Reed since the Masters, but there’s no doubt he’ll be ready for Aronimink this week. His 2026 campaign has been nearly flawless. He’s already captured two wins on the DP World Tour and hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in any of his seven starts.
His recent major championship results are volatile, which is why I want to be rewarded for my risk. The top-10 market for Patrick Reed is currently +465, which is where I find the most value based on his perceived outcomes.
We’ve spent a lot of time over the last half-decade discussing the majors that Rickie Fowler has not been in. Over the last five years, he’s only played all four majors just once – in 2024. He already failed to qualify for this year’s Masters, so that dubious streak will continue. However, he’s in this week and playing some high-level golf.
In his 11 starts in 2026, he’s earned seven top-20 finishes and has three top-10 finishes in his last three starts. There are a few things that are driving that success, and let’s start with his driver. He’s gained 0.24 strokes off the tee this year, which is his second-best year since 2018. His approach play is the best he’s had since 2023, and his putter is his best since 2019. He’s putting all facets of the game together, and it’s producing those great results. He also rarely makes a bogey! His bogey avoidance sits just above 11%, which is the fourth-best rate on TOUR. Being able to make par at a major championship is always more valuable, making Rickie a proper top-20 play for this week. Odds are currently +188.

EliminaTOUR picks for PGA Championship: Choosing a champion
I simply cannot quit Alex Smalley. His 2026 campaign has been a ball-striking display, with that ramping up over his last seven starts. He closed strong last week and notched another top-25 finish, making that five straight, and he’s gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven measured events.
Even last week, arguably a below-average finish, offered plenty of positive takeaways. He was awesome for 33 of the first 36 holes, playing them at 6-under par. The other three were massive mistakes. He made two triple bogeys and a double bogey, which torpedoed his scorecard. The easiest thing for a professional player to clean up is the big number, which leaves me with enough reason to back Alex Smalley in the top-20 market this week at +350.
The emergence of Alex Fitzpatrick is almost unbelievable – if you only follow the PGA TOUR. However, if you follow the global game closely, it’s still impressive, but less surprising. Prior to his win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with his brother Matt, Alex already had seven top-25 finishes on the DP World Tour, including a win at the Hero Indian Open. That win came at DLF Golf and Country Club, which is one of the hardest courses on the planet. It also featured a deep field, including Akshay Bhatia, who missed the cut.
He was already in position to earn his PGA TOUR card at the end of the year, but the win at the Zurich Classic made that goal immediate. Since joining this circuit, he’s been fantastic, with a T9 at the Cadillac Championship and a fourth-place finish last week in Charlotte. He’s one of the hottest players in the world, and he’s not yet being priced like it. His top-20 odds are the most appealing to me, which can be found at +320.
For resources related to problem gambling, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.




