Augusta National certainly needs no introduction, but let’s view it from a statistical standpoint to help build the profiles of players who are going to have success this week at the Masters.

Let’s start off the tee, where players will find only a fairway cut of grass before running into pine straw. There is plenty of room off the tee as long as golfers don’t have a “big miss.” This will benefit those who hit it far, as driving distance has been one of the most correlated stats to success over the last 10 years.

Things start to get trickier now, as there is a huge premium on approach play. Golfers will need to control the distance of their shots and how the ball reacts when it hits the putting surface. The green complexes at Augusta National often feature “quadrants,” and being in the correct area is crucial for shooting a low score. This will benefit players who understand shot shapes and spin control.

The short-game areas at Augusta National may be some of the most demanding in the world. Chips and pitches will require a deft touch and the ability to hit a variety of different shots. There is little substitute for experience in these areas, which is why players often get better in these departments after multiple years of playing the Masters.

Overall, we are looking for long-hitting flushers with soft hands on and around the greens. Seems easy!

There’s a cautious optimism when looking at Ludvig Åberg’s chances to win this week at Augusta National. On the surface, he’s the perfect player to accomplish this feat. He’s excellent in nearly every facet of his game and is getting hot at the right time, with a T3 finish at Bay Hill, a T5 at THE PLAYERS and a T5 in San Antonio last week. But we need to talk about that T5 at THE PLAYERS.

He was the leader after 54 holes and playing in the final group before struggling to a back-nine 40 and falling off the podium. I tend to think that’s more of an outlier than a trend for Åberg, who has had plenty of success in his career. He’s going to look to build on his incredible two-year start at Augusta National, where he has finished runner-up and seventh. His odds to win the Masters are currently +1750 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Matt Fitzpatrick has been nothing short of spectacular in the last year. He’s gained 1.43 strokes per round on the field over the last 365 days, which is the seventh-best mark of anyone in this field. During that time, he has piled up seven top-10 finishes and two wins around the globe. Augusta National will ask for a complete game, and that’s exactly what Fitzpatrick offers, gaining strokes in all four major categories. Not only is he gaining in all categories, but his skills are so evenly distributed that he opens up multiple paths to the top of the board. Already a major champion, Fitzpatrick earned two top-eight finishes in majors last year and will look to continue that trend into the first major of this year. He’s capable of winning this week, with odds at +2600.

There are plenty of narratives that Augusta National suits left-handed players better than right-handed players. I’m not sold on that concept, but it certainly won’t hurt Robert MacIntyre’s chances of contending this week. For what he lacks in consistency, he makes up for with upside. MacIntyre has won both the RBC Canadian Open and the Genesis Scottish Open in his career, along with participating on multiple Ryder Cup teams. He’s felt every bit of pressure that the professional game has to offer. Now he’s heading to Augusta National with his game in complete control. He’s someone that I’m targeting in the top-20 market at +108.

Speaking of lefties, Akshay Bhatia will roll into the Masters already with a new garment in the closet – the red cardigan he earned for winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard a few weeks back. Much like MacIntyre, Bhatia is buoyed by his putter and will look to other facets of his game as more of a “bonus.” It’s no surprise that Bhatia has improved his iron play this year, and the results are following suit. Over his last five measured TOUR events, he’s gained 19.26 strokes on approach and has finished no worse than T16 during that run. He’s a viable top-20 option at +154.

Adam Scott continues to age like fine wine. Now at 45 years old, he is swinging 123.1 mph, which is the fastest of his career and inside the top 20 of all players on TOUR. As if that wasn’t enough, he has dialed in his approach play to the tune of 0.91 strokes gained per round, which is his best mark since 2016 – a year in which he earned 10 top-10 finishes and won twice. He’s gained strokes from tee to green in every start this year and will likely go as far as his putter allows him. This will be Scott’s 25th start at the Masters, so experience and familiarity certainly won’t be a problem. Consider him in the finishing position market, where he is -112 to finish inside the top 30.

The 2018 champion, Patrick Reed, is in the midst of a career year. In six worldwide starts, he’s gained 2.32 strokes per round, which would easily be the best season of his long and successful career. He’s already won twice – in Dubai and Qatar – and possesses the short-game ability to contend again at Augusta National. His last eight trips to the Masters have been a masterclass. He’s piled up six top-12 finishes, including that win in 2018 and a solo third in last year’s edition. There’s plenty of upside in Reed’s game, and I want to realize it if things go well – he’s +670 to notch a top-5 finish.

If Marco Penge can continue his recent statistical profile, he’s going to be very dangerous this week at Augusta National. He’s already one of the longest hitters on the planet and has gained strokes off the tee in every start this year. Now we are starting to see maturation in the rest of his game. Penge has beaten the field on the putting surfaces in three of his last five starts and gained over four strokes on approach last week in San Antonio.

That is a scary combination for a player who is no stranger to winning – something he did three times on the DP World Tour last season. While this will be his first start at the Masters, it won’t be his first major championship experience. He’s played The Open on three occasions and also teed it up in the PGA Championship last year.

I find Penge interesting in the Top Debutant (+890) market and he’s additive in the Nationality market. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering +370 for the winner to be from the UK or Ireland. That would get you Penge, Fleetwood, McIlroy, Fitzpatrick and a variety of other contenders.

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