Odds Outlook: FedExCup champ Tommy Fleetwood favored at Valero Texas Open
5 Min Read

Mic’d up with Valero winner Brian Harman
Written by Mike Glasscott
The first week of back-to-back events in Texas culminated with fans in Houston witnessing Gary Woodland's emotional return to the winner’s circle for the first time since enduring brain surgery in 2023. This week, the city with the longest-running event, San Antonio, gets its chance to add to its proud history by hosting the 103rd Valero Texas Open.
FedExCup champ Tommy Fleetwood (+1500) is the top choice at FanDuel Sportsbook in Texas Hill Country. Since 1922, San Antonio has hosted the Valero Texas Open, making it the longest-running event on TOUR in the same city. Fleetwood arrives as the highest-ranked golfer (No. 4 OWGR) in the field of 132 players and leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. After earning a check for T8 at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this season — his third top-10 result from four starts — he joined his LAGC teammates to win the second season of TGL. Fleetwood tees it up at The Oaks Course, the host venue since 2010, for the third time. His best result was T7 in 2024 before T62 in 2025.

Tommy Fleetwood sinks 21-foot birdie putt on No. 18 at THE PLAYERS
Ludvig Åberg (+1600), twice a winner on TOUR, is searching for his first win since 2025's The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. Familiar with the winds and climate in the Lone Star State, the former Texas Tech golfer is hot on the heels of Fleetwood. Flighting the golf ball into and with the wind demands concentration over 72 holes, and the Swede had plenty of practice refining his trade in his three college years in Lubbock. Recently, he held a three-shot lead after 54 holes at THE PLAYERS before shooting 76 and settling for T5. He was in the mix in Orlando and earned T3 money at the Arnold Palmer Invitational the week prior. He’s close.
Making his eighth start of 2026, Jordan Spieth (+1800) continues his quest for his first top-10 of the year and first victory since the 2022 RBC Heritage. The native Texan, who won here in 2021, makes his 10th start in San Antonio. If Spieth lifts the trophy this week, he would join Corey Conners as the only multiple winners since the move to The Oaks Course in 2010. Spieth cashed T12 in 2025, T10 in 2024, and ran second before his first green jacket triumph in 2015. His streak of seven consecutive cuts made in San Antonio is on the line.

Jordan Spieth hits 176-yard tee shot to 9 feet, sets up birdie on No. 15 at Valspar
Russell Henley (+1800), last a winner at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, arrives in Hill Country in excellent form. Making the cut in five of six events in 2026, the Georgia native cashed T19 or better, including a pair of top-10 results, in all five. Ranked fifth in Driving Accuracy and Scrambling, he also ranks 14th in SG: Putting. Add those categories up, and it is not a surprise he doesn’t make many bogeys (third in Bogey Avoidance). If the weather factors, which it usually does, grinding out pars is a skill to lean on. On his last visit in 2024, his first since 2019, he posted four rounds of 71 or better, shot 10-under, and finished fourth.
The 13th event of the 2026 PGA TOUR season welcomes Collin Morikawa (+2000) back to action. The winner at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was poised to battle at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this month, but a back issue forced him to withdraw after just one hole at TPC Sawgrass. Morikawa, who owns a pair of major championship trophies, was on a streak of three consecutive top-10 paydays. A return to action the week before the first major championship of the season suggests that he is ready to test his back in competition. Leading the TOUR in SG: Approach the Green, he ranks fourth SG: Tee to Green. Only Johnny Keefer (+4000) has found more Greens in Regulation in 2026 than Morikawa.

Collin Morikawa makes 12-foot eagle putt on No. 16 at Arnold Palmer
Robert MacIntyre (+2000) closed 65-69 to earn fourth place on a very challenging weekend at THE PLAYERS Championship. The Scotsman, who also opened his season with T4 in the Sony Open in Hawaii, has made the cut in 21 consecutive events, the second-longest streak on TOUR behind only Scottie Scheffler (70). A fantastic putter, currently ranked sixth in SG: Putting, his short game can make up for errant approach shots.
Si Woo Kim (+2200) began the 2026 season with paydays of T11 or better in his first four starts. The last four starts have all resulted in paydays, but only one inside the top 30 (T13 Arnold Palmer Invitational). Kim, who ranks second on TOUR in SG: Tee to Green, will be elated to learn that the last 10 winners at the Valero Texas Open all ranked in the top 10 in that stat for the week. The Korean, who was last a winner at the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii, saw his streak of six consecutive paydays at The Oaks Course run dry in 2025.

Si Woo Kim sinks 22-foot birdie putt on No. 3 at THE PLAYERS
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) began his visits to Hill Country for the 2021 event. Sharing 30th, the Japanese star arrived at Augusta National Golf Club the following week and won the Masters for his first and only major championship. Trying to recreate the magic, he has returned annually with mixed results. He withdrew from the 2022 edition, cashed T15 (2023) and T7 (2024), before missing the cut in 2025. The 11-time TOUR winner was last spotted holding the trophy after the 2025 Sentry, but went close, losing a playoff to Chris Gotterup (not entered) at the WM Phoenix Open. He is yet to miss the cut in seven events in 2026, but has not hit the top 10 in his last three.
Maverick McNealy (+2200) shared third place in 2025 to hit the podium for the first time in three starts at The Oaks Course. In 2026, he cashed T32 or better in six of seven events, including a season-best 10th-place finish at another course he enjoys, Torrey Pines South. Like Torrey Pines South, hitting fairways and greens and making birdies at The Oaks Course is a tough ask. The Oaks Course ranked fourth in most difficult fairways and greens in regulation. Overall, it ranked the 11th-most difficult course on TOUR, major championships included, in 2025.
Past winners of the Valero Texas Open entered but not listed above include:
- 2025: Brian Harman (+6500)
- 2022: J.J. Spaun (+3300)
- 2016: Charley Hoffman (+75000)
- 2015: Jimmy Walker (+100000)
Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, with odds via FanDuel:
- +2500: Michael Thorbjorsen, Sepp Straka
- +2700: Rickie Fowler
- +3300: Keith Mitchell
- +3500: Alex Noren
- +4000: Sudarshan Yellamaraju, Johnny Keefer, Daniel Berger, Ryo Hisatsune
- +4500: Marco Penge, Denny McCarthy
- +5000: Thorbjorn Olesen
- +5500: Nick Taylor
- +6000: Jordan Smith, Will Zalatoris
- +6500: Ricky Castillo, Davis Thompson
- +7000: Alex Smalley, Austin Smotherman, Tony Finau, Stephan Jaeger,
- +8000: Rico Hoey, Patrick Rodgers, Max McGreevy, J.T. Poston
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