It’s okay to take a breath after last week’s THE PLAYERS Championship — it was an instant classic. However, there is going to be another stout field vying for the title at Innisbrook Resort this week for the Valspar Championship. This is the final leg of the Florida Swing before the TOUR turns its attention to Texas.

From a visual standpoint, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook won’t look like the other courses in the Florida Swing. There are many more changes in elevation, and while there’s plenty of water in play, it’s not to the magnitude of Bay Hill or TPC Sawgrass.

From a statistical standpoint, the short game becomes much more important this week with Sand Save Percentage and Scrambling leading the way as some of the most correlated stats to success over the last six years. That makes sense considering the Birdie or Better average at the Copperhead Course is significantly lower than the TOUR average. The average winning score over the last three years is 11-under par, which may well get the job done again this year.

Ryo Hisatsune has elevated his stature to certified flusher. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in 12 consecutive events, dating back to the Procore Championship in the fall. During that stretch, he’s missed three cuts but has five top-15 finishes, including a T13 last week at TPC Sawgrass.

Since the start of 2026, he’s gained +1.33 strokes per round from tee-to-green, which is the fourth-best mark of anyone in this field. The names above him have plenty of cachet — Brooks Koepka, Matt Fitzpatrick and Austin Smotherman (more on him later).

The question for Hisatsune has always been the putter, and that continues to be his issue recently. He’s coughed up 11.23 strokes putting over his last 12 rounds, but he’s not incapable of putting well. In the three starts prior to that downturn, he had gained +10.18 strokes putting over the same number of rounds. If he putts well, there is no ceiling for Hisatsune, but I’m targeting a top-10 wager, which can be found at +450 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Speaking of Smotherman, we already know how great his tee-to-green game has been, but it’s worth noting that the four leaders in that category are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. They’ve all gained at least +1.33 strokes from tee-to-green per round and there isn’t another player who breaks the 1.0 SG per round barrier. Continuing with the comparisons to others, Smotherman hasn’t shown the “pop” ability with the putter that Hisatsune has, but his bad putting weeks aren’t nearly as bad.

The reason for my optimism is that Smotherman has played this event twice in his career — 2023 and 2022 — and he gained strokes putting in both starts. Maybe there’s something about these greens or his ability to read them that makes him comfortable. If that’s true, combining that confidence with his stellar ball-striking would be a significant improvement. He’s currently +600 in the top-10 market, which is my favorite way to deploy him.

We may just be seeing the career emergence of Jacob Bridgeman right before our eyes. Since the start of 2026, he is statistically the third-best golfer on TOUR, gaining +1.93 strokes per round to the field. When comparing only to the Valspar Championship field, he’s No. 1 in strokes gained and it’s not particularly close.

His weapon is very clearly the flatstick. He’s gained strokes putting in every event this year and is also the best putter in this field, picking up +1.41 strokes per round since the start of the year. However, he’s finding new levels to his game. He’s added a vastly improved tee-to-green component, which shoots him up the leaderboard if he’s just slightly above average.

His worst finish this year is a T18, and he stamped an exclamation point on his resume with the win at The Genesis Invitational. His stat profile has become so sustainable that this is not a “hot streak” — this is the new normal for Bridgeman. His odds to win the Valspar Championship are listed at +2400 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bud Cauley popped at this event last year, finishing T4 — marking one of his four top-10 finishes of 2025. He gained +9.7 strokes from tee-to-green last year in his four loops around the Copperhead Course. That’s his key to success and the facet of his game that he’s been excelling at currently. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in four of his last five starts, which includes a gauntlet of four Signature Events.

Now he’ll be able to battle a field that is top heavy but wide open once you get further down the board. Since he struggles with the putter on occasion, I’m looking toward a top-20 wager that can be found at +300.

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