The PGA TOUR kicks off its Florida swing at the renowned PGA National, which has proven to be a stout test for even the best golfers in the world. Florida golf usually means flat courses, pure bermudagrass greens and water lurking around every corner. PGA National is no different and will play a dutiful host to this week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

Statistically speaking, PGA National demands accuracy off the tee. The cost of missing the fairway is 0.30 strokes on average with some holes, like No. 4, dishing out a half-stroke penalty for missing the short grass. That’s a combination of the normal penalty for playing out of the rough plus the increased likelihood of errant shots finding water and requiring a penalty drop.

Nearly half of approaches this week will come from similar positions between 150 and 200 yards to larger than average bermudagrass greens. Large misses will also be penalized with watery demises within reach, so each stroke requires a high level of concentration.

The bermudagrass putting surfaces will feel like a reprieve for those who have been playing on the West Coast Poa annua surfaces the last few weeks. More putts are made inside 15 feet at PGA National than the TOUR average, which should remove some of the putting randomness that we saw during the run of golf in California.

It’s been a banner start to 2026 for Ryan Gerard who has teed it up five times and is gaining 1.61 strokes per round to the field, the best mark of anyone teeing it up this week. He’s earned a pair of runner-up finishes and looked unbeatable on the greens until he lost 3.74 strokes putting on the tricky Poa annua surfaces at Riviera. I’m willing to forgive that performance and pile high expectations onto Gerard for this week. He is currently +1950 to win, via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nicolai Højgaard nearly got my nod as top man in this field as he’s clearly elevated his game to levels that we haven’t seen thus far in his career. Over his last six worldwide starts, Højgaard has gained over 14 strokes on approach alone while adding positive momentum both off the tee and with the putter. He’s only made two PGA TOUR starts this year but made the most of them with a T22 at Torrey Pines and a T3 in Phoenix. There are a variety of offerings at DraftKings Sportsbook with value, including +425 to finish Top 5.

The stat profile for Christiaan Bezuidenhout seems to get better every time I look at it. He’s always been a masterful putter, gaining 0.44 strokes per round since 2022. That’s the best mark of anyone in this field who has made at least 100 starts during that stretch. Now he’s adding a new dimension to his game with improved tee-to-green play. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in 10 of his last 11 worldwide starts. It should come as no surprise that he’s putted well on the greens at PGA National, earning 8.16 strokes putting over his last four trips. There’s concern about his ceiling, but he is +360 to finish inside the Top 10, which seems to be a more reasonable outcome.

There’s a curious stat profile being built by Tom Kim right now. It’s curious in the sense that his finishing positions don’t seem as high as they should be. Across his five starts in 2026, he’s gained strokes off the tee in four, gained on approach in three, gained around the green in four, and gained with the putter in two. Yet his best finish was a T34 last week at Riviera. I’m generally encouraged by this, as Kim has shown clear improvement and the ability to beat his peers in all aspects. He simply needs to avoid the bad round and get a little lucky with timing. I’ll keep my expectations reasonable and consider Tom Kim for a Top 20 at +225.

John Parry has yet to miss a cut in his four starts on TOUR this season, highlighted by a T19 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s a well-rounded player with above-average driving distance against his peers and above-average accuracy amongst the longest hitters. He completely eliminates the left side of the course, ranking 16th in Left Rough Tendency, which will be valuable at PGA National. He should be able to avoid some of the big problems on the left side of the course but he has a reliable shot shape to avoid trouble throughout the course. FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering Parry's Top 20 odds at +210.

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