The PGA TOUR wraps up its West Coast Swing with a trip to The Riviera Country Club, one of the most renowned courses in the world. Architect George C. Thomas Jr. is known for his “half-par” holes, where many play to scoring averages of 4.5 or 3.5 — meaning there will be plenty of birdies and bogeys on the card.

Players can get away with missing fairways early in the round, but once they reach the fifth hole, every missed fairway costs roughly 0.33 strokes. That’s a sizable penalty for failing to play from the short grass. Approach shots will come from a variety of distances and often require working the ball in both directions to access certain pin locations.

These Poa annua greens require full commitment and attention, especially in the crucial 6- to 9-foot range. The TOUR average from that distance is 54.6%, but it drops closer to 50% at Riviera — a tangible difference considering how frequently those putts will be attempted.

The winner this week will be in complete control of their game. (Odds below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.)

The well-rounded skill set of Harris English should prove valuable at Riviera, and he’s demonstrated that before. English has recorded a T12 and a seventh-place finish in his last two starts at this event, excelling both on and around the greens. In those eight combined rounds, he has gained more than 4.5 strokes around the green and more than 12 strokes putting. He was also excellent off the tee at Pebble Beach, hitting more than 64% of his fairways. This timely convergence of trends makes his +250 price for a Top-10 Finish appealing.

I’m still backing Ludvig Åberg, even though he has lost some of the consistency that defined the start of his career. After struggling at Torrey Pines and sitting near the bottom of the leaderboard after the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Åberg surged over the final three days. His 69-66-67 closing stretch was the sixth-best score in the field during that span. His upside remains undeniable, making +860 for Top European an attractive number.

If you enjoy making models, much like I do, then Sepp Straka is unlikely to appear on your screen anytime soon. He had two dismal performances at the TOUR Championship and The American Express, which have sunk his last 36 and last 50 round prospects. However, he’s gained at least eight strokes to the field in five of his last 13 starts and looked magnificent in his T2 finish last week at Pebble Beach. Straka passes the eye test and checks in at +750 to finish inside the Top 5.

Rickie Fowler has compiled five consecutive top-20 finishes dating to last season’s playoffs. From tee to green, his game is as strong as it has been in years, and he continues to appear on leaderboards. Despite the steady play, he hasn’t truly contended for a title during that stretch because of a unique statistical profile. He has gained at least two strokes in 40% of his rounds — a rate similar to Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama. However, his ceiling is limited. Fowler gains five or more strokes in a round just 4% of the time, a rate more in line with Patrick Rodgers and Pierceson Coody. Simply put, he has a high floor but a modest ceiling, which makes +100 in the Top 20 market a logical target.

Tony Finau is no longer the driving force he once was. He has lost strokes off the tee in 10 of his last 12 TOUR starts, yet his odds still seem long given his history at Riviera. He has posted five top-20 finishes in his last seven appearances here, largely buoyed by strong driving. Even if that club doesn’t fully cooperate this week, Finau has shown enough positive signs to merit consideration. He gained 3.29 strokes on approach and 8.23 strokes putting last week en route to an 18th-place finish. That’s a profile to consider for smaller sample sizes like his +680 odds to finish inside the Top 10 after the first round.

We’re learning that “course fit” for Jake Knapp is merely a suggestion. He has posted top-12 finishes this year at Waialae CC, Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale and Pebble Beach — four venues that span a wide range of styles and skill demands. His ability to contend at each speaks volumes about the state of his game. This will be his first start at Riviera, but it’s easy to envision his skill set translating. He is +265 to record another Top 10 Finish.

Tommy Fleetwood made his 2026 TOUR debut last week at Pebble Beach, finishing T4 while gaining strokes in all four major categories. The putter was cold early, as he entered the final round, losing strokes to the field on the greens. He responded by draining more than 70 feet of putts on Sunday. Riviera has historically been a friendly surface for him; he has gained more than seven strokes putting in his last eight rounds here. Fleetwood has won twice in his last nine worldwide starts and is +2500 to win this week.

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